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How does John Bates compare to other TE2s in the NFL?

By KyleSmithforGM
/ new
Tennessee Titans v Washington Commanders Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images

When it comes to tight ends, my experience is that fanbases - or at least the fanbase of the Washington Commanders - tend to have pretty unrealistic expectations about their developmental timelines and their statistical production, particularly once you get beyond the uncontested starter.

But, while that was my intuition, I wanted to take a closer look at the data, particularly on the heels of Bill’s 2023 over/under predictions for Washington’s tight ends.

With Logan Thomas the clear starting tight end on this team when he’s healthy, John Bates has been the team’s TE2 for the past couple of years. There was hope for Armani Rogers, and there’s some simmering excitement this offseason that Cole Turner might be able to step up this year, but - production wise - what’s a reasonable expectation for a second tight end in the NFL?

First we’ll start with a few questions:

Poll

How many receptions should an average TE2 have per season?

This poll is closed

  • 2%
    < 10
    (24 votes)
  • 15%
    11-15
    (123 votes)
  • 36%
    16-20
    (293 votes)
  • 28%
    21-25
    (227 votes)
  • 16%
    > 26
    (136 votes)
803 votes total Vote Now

Poll

How many yards should an average TE2 have per season?

This poll is closed

  • 3%
    < 100
    (23 votes)
  • 32%
    101-200
    (247 votes)
  • 51%
    201-300
    (387 votes)
  • 13%
    > 301
    (100 votes)
757 votes total Vote Now

Poll

How many TDs should an average TE2 have per season?

This poll is closed

  • 1%
    0
    (11 votes)
  • 11%
    1
    (83 votes)
  • 36%
    2
    (272 votes)
  • 36%
    3
    (269 votes)
  • 14%
    4
    (110 votes)
745 votes total Vote Now

The table below contains the top tight end for each team last year - in terms of receiving yards - as well as the tight end with the team’s second most receiving yards, and their other associated statistics.

2022 Tight End Two Statistics by Team

Team TE1 TE2 Recs Yards TDs
Team TE1 TE2 Recs Yards TDs
49ers George Kittle Ross Dwelley 3 105 1
Bears Cole Kmet Ryan Griffin 4 26 0
Bengals Hayden Hurst Mitchell Wilcox 17 139 1
Bills Dawson Knox Quintin Morris 8 84 1
Broncos Greg Dulcich Eric Saubert 15 148 1
Browns David Njoku Harrison Bryant 31 239 1
Buccaneers Cade Otton Cameron Brate 20 174 0
Cardinals Zach Ertz Trey McBride 29 265 1
Chargers Gerald Everett Donald Parham 10 130 1
Chiefs Travis Kelce Noah Gray 28 299 1
Colts Jelani Woods Kylen Granson 31 302 0
Commanders Logan Thomas John Bates 14 108 1
Cowboys Dalton Schultz Jake Ferguson 19 174 2
Dolphins Mike Gesicki Durham Smythe 15 129 1
Eagles Dallas Goedert Jack Stoll 11 123 0
Falcons Kyle Pitts Mycole Pruitt 16 150 4
Giants Daniel Bellinger Tanner Hudson 10 132 0
Jaguars Evan Engram Dan Arnold 9 135 0
Jets Tyler Conklin CJ Uzomah 21 232 2
Lions TJ Hockenson Brock Wright 18 216 4
Packers Robert Tonyan Josiah Deguara 13 114 0
Panthers Ian Thomas Tommy Tremble 19 174 3
Patriots Hunter Henry Jonnu Smith 27 245 0
Raiders Foster Moreau Darren Waller 28 388 3
Rams Tyler Higbee Brycen Hopkins 7 109 0
Ravens Mark Andrews Isaiah Likely 36 373 3
Saints Juwan Johnson Adam Trautman 18 207 1
Seahawks Noah Fant Will Dissly 34 349 3
Steelers Pat Freiermuth Connor Heyward 12 151 1
Texans Jordan Akins OJ Howard 10 145 2
Titans Chig Okonkwo Austin Hooper 41 444 2
Vikings TJ Hockenson Irv Smith 25 182 2

In terms of the Commanders, what you’ll notice is that they didn’t stack up very well. As TE2, Bates had the 4th fewest receiving yards and 12th fewest receptions in the league last year. Washington’s passing difficulties are well understood - they had the 9th fewest team receptions in the league - and clearly impacted all of the potential receivers on the team, but even then, Bates’ numbers don’t look great. How do they compare to the average TE2?

In 2022, teams’ second tight ends delivered a fairly variable set of results, but on average, I think most fans’ would be surprised at how low they were. The average TE2 caught 19 passes for 194 yards, and 1 touchdown last year. On teams where they were substantially more productive than that, like the Titans, Ravens, and Colts, it seems to have largely been the product of relatively weak wide receiver groups and/or QB play.

While Bates’ 2022 performance fell below that threshold, his rookie performance, in 2021, exceeded it. His 2021 numbers, 20 receptions for 249 yards and 1 TD were among the best in his draft class, and they would have placed him 12th in receptions and 8th in yardage among TE2s in 2022.

As a tight end primarily drafted for his blocking proficiency, I’m not sure anyone ever expected Bates to be among the most productive tight ends in the league. However, during his initial - admittedly short - two season sample, he certainly appears capable of performing as a decent TE2 in the league, in terms of offensive performance.

And, I expect that if we see significantly improved quarterback play this year, Bates’ numbers could fairly easily move back into the range that we saw in 2021, which, looking across the rest of the league, would put him right in the middle of pack.

Poll

Who do you think will be Washington’s second most productive TE in 2023?

This poll is closed

  • 11%
    Logan Thomas
    (69 votes)
  • 31%
    John Bates
    (197 votes)
  • 53%
    Cole Turner
    (334 votes)
  • 1%
    Curtis Hodges
    (11 votes)
  • 1%
    Someone else
    (9 votes)
620 votes total Vote Now

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