The 5 O’Clock Club: Player overs/unders for 2023 - Tight End edition

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I set the over/under. You vote. Feel free to explain why in the comments.

Logan Thomas

Thomas has had an interesting NFL career. Drafted as a quarterback in the 4th round of the 2014 draft, he bounced on and off of a few regular rosters and practice squads before he decided to reload his career by switching positions to tight end in 2016. His first real playing time at the new position came in 2017-18 with the Bills, but he only really established himself in 2020 with the Washington Football team, when he 72 receptions for 670 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

His 2021 season was derailed by a serious knee injury, and it wasn’t until after the midpoint of last season (‘22) that he started returning to his 2020 form.

If you extrapolate the final 7 games of the 22 season over a 17-game schedule, Thomas was on pace for 58 receptions, 497 yards.

It seems as if Eric Bieniemy is the right guy to tap Logan Thomas’s remaining potential with a tight-end friendly west coast offensive scheme that should also see Thomas and the other tight ends see plenty of red-zone opportunities.

Cole Turner

Second-year tight end Cole Turner never really lived up to the offseason hype that developed around him after the Commanders selected him in the 5th round of last year’s draft.

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Concussion and hamstring injuries kept him off the field for much of training camp, and he never really seemed to establish himself as an integral part of the offense during the regular season.

Turner showed up to OTAs and minicamp this offseason saying that he’d redoubled his efforts to eat right and train right. He said that he’d trimmed his body fat, improved his strength, and used targeted conditioning in an effort to avoid the kind of hamstring issues that plagued him as a rookie.

The Athletic recently wrote a feature article on the young tight end:

“(Cole) is one of those guys built for an offense like this,” [Logan] Thomas, Washington’s starting tight end, said earlier this month. “He doesn’t really stretch the field but uses his quickness and hands. I’m excited to see what he ends up doing this year.”

Turner’s size, hands and catch radius have some believing he could become Washington’s best young tight end since Reed. Selected in the third round of the 2013 NFL Draft, 22 picks after Kelce, Reed spent six of his seven seasons with Washington and earned one Pro Bowl selection before injuries forced early retirement in 2020. Reed had 355 receptions — 87 in 2015 — and his production caught Turner’s eye.

“I want to be just like him,” Turner said.

The college wide-receiver-turned-tight-end stands 6’6” and 240 pounds; he should provide Washington’s starting quarterback with an impressive red zone target — if he can earn the trust of the coaches and convince them to call his number.

John Bates

John Bates gets on the field a lot, and not just on special teams. He played 519 offensive snaps in 2021 (46%) and 510 offensive snaps in 2022 (45%), so his usage has been pretty consistent, but Bates in primarily a blocker.

That said, he has soft hands and was targeted at least once in each of 9 games in 2022. He caught 20 passes on 25 targets as a rookie, and then 14 passes on 22 targets as a 2nd year player in 2022.

Curtis Hodges

Curtis Hodges was one of two UDFA tight ends to join the Commanders last offseason, and like nearly everyone in the tight end room not named John Bates, Hodges had a season marred by injury.

Hodges was healthy for only the first preseason game, in which he played 49 offensive snaps. He was targeted 5 times, catching 3 balls for 11 yards.

After that initial NFL performance, Hodges struggled with a thigh injury, and was put onto IR prior to Week 1. He has yet to appear in a regular season game.

Here’s what our own KS4GM wrote about Hodges:

An undrafted free agent out of Arizona State, Hodges is an imposing physical specimen, and the tallest of this group of gigantic men. He played most of his time at ASU as a wide receiver, and 2021 was his first full season as a tight end. He performed well enough to be named honorable mention All-PAC 12, with 20 receptions for 374 yards and 2 TDs.

He had a number of nagging injuries during his time in college, and projects as a potential Joker TE in the pros. [T]his will be an enormous offseason for him.

Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

The Commanders initially seemed all but certain to enter the 2023 season with Logan Thomas, John Bates, Cole Turner and Armani Rogers as their tight end group, but when Rogers injured his Achilles tendon in OTAs this month, that plan went sideways.

The competition for the 4th and likely final TE spot on the roster seems to be between Hodges and the recently signed free agent from Minnesota, Brandon Dillon.