The 5 O’Clock Club: Looking at the Week 2 opponent - on the road at the Denver Broncos

The 5 o’clock club is published from time to time during the season, and aims to provide a forum for reader-driven discussion at a time of day when there isn’t much NFL news being published. Feel free to introduce topics that interest you in the comments below.

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It wouldn’t be hard to believe that the NFL tried to ‘do a solid’ for the incoming ownership group led by Josh Harris by scheduling the Arizona Cardinals to visit FedEx Field in Week 1 of the 2023 season. The Cardinals appear to be in full-on tank mode for the season, and will almost certainly be without starting quarterback Kyler Murray, who is currently rehabbing from a torn ACL suffered in Week 14 last year.

Commanders fans should have plenty of reason to buy up tickets and show up in force to watch the home favorites without the pain of feeling like they are putting money into the pockets of Dan Snyder.

At first blush, the Week 2 road trip to Denver to take on the Broncos, who finished with only 5 wins in 2022, looks like another gift.

But on further reflection...maybe not so much.

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The coach

The biggest change for the Broncos organization since January has to be at the head coaching position. Gone is Nathaniel Hackett and his 4-11 record as a head coach. In his place is Sean Payton, who was the 2006 coach of the year; who coached the Saints to victory in Super Bowl XLIV, and who boasts a career regular season winning percentage of .631.

It can take time for even a super bowl winning coach to turn a program around, but Payton has a decent roster to work with in Denver, and he may very well have them ready for the challenge posed by a visiting Washington team in Week 2. As things stand right now, the Broncos are 3.5 point favorites.

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The quarterback

Social media perked up in recent days when Russell Wilson released a video of his offseason workout.

Reporters on the Broncos beat have commented that Wilson looks leaner than last season, and many observers are speculating that the former Seahawks quarterback, who signed a five year contract extension worth $245 million with the Broncos a year ago, will be fired up to prove himself to Sean Payton and a disgruntled Denver fan base.

Wilson may be dealing with changes that go beyond his offseason workout routines and fitness level.

Denver finished last season No. 32 in scoring, managing just 16.9 points per game. Wilson ended the year completing 60.5 percent of his passes for 3,524 yards with 16 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 15 starts. He was also sacked a league-high 55 times.

If I were a betting man, I’d be loathe to bet against Wilson because of one bad season — albeit quite a stinker — in 2022.

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In his 11-year career, the 35-year-old quarterback has thrown for more than 40,000 yards, with a TD:INT ratio of better than 3:1. You can add to that nearly 5,000 rushing yards and 26 rushing TDs. Wilson had a record of 104-53-1 as a starting quarterback in Seattle, so there is a very good chance that he returns to form in ‘23.

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Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and Greg Dulcich seem to comprise a solid receiving corps, but Jeudy and Sutton combined for just over 1,800 yards and 8 touchdowns in 2022. In three seasons, Jeudy has yet to reach the 1,000 yard mark, and he has only 9 receiving touchdowns, which would have to qualify as disappointing for the 15th overall pick in the 2020 draft.

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Courtland Sutton, drafted 40th overall in 2018, did break the 1,000 yard threshold in 2019, but hasn’t achieved more than 829 yards in a season since. In 5 seasons, Sutton has less than 3,500 yards, and has just 14 touchdowns.

In all, the receiver group has more name recognition than actual prodution. However, just as Washington fans are hoping that the hiring of Eric Bieniemy will spark an increase in offensive production and scoring, so Broncos fans are hoping to see the offensive switch turned on by the hiring of Sean Payton.

As I said earlier, I’m not inclined to bet against Russell Wilson or Sean Payton, so I’m hoping that Washington benefits from traveling to Denver early in the season when the weather is still nice, players’ conditioning and health is near its peak, and the Broncos are still learning the new coach’s systems.

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Tight Ends

Greg Dulcich and Adam Trautman (a free agent signing from New Orleans) aren’t likely to put much fear into Jack Del Rio’s defense. They combined for just over 600 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2022.

That said, Sean Payton has a history of getting great production out of players like Jeremy Shockey and Jimmy Graham, so it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to have Dulcich emerge as one of the most productive offensive players on the team.

James Palmer has some interesting things to say about Dulcich in the second half of the video in this tweet:

Every tight end unit in the league needs a player like the Commanders’ John Bates who excels as a blocker, which is why the Broncos signed Chris Manhertz to a two-year, $6 million dollar deal in March.

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Running backs

While Sean Payton is known for prolific passing offenses, it appears the Broncos will try and make running the ball a focal point of their offense to alleviate pressure on Russell Wilson.

The Broncos lead back is Javonte Williams, who was selected by the Broncos in the 2nd round of the 2021 draft. In his first season, Williams rushed for 903 yards, 4 touchdowns, and sported a 4.4 yard per carry average. He also showed his value as a receiver out of the backfield by hauling in 43 receptions for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Williams’ sophomore season expectations were high. Unfortunately, that all changed when he suffered a catastrophic injury against the Las Vegas Raiders in early October of his rookie season. Whether or not Williams will ever return to his prior form and potential remains to be seen. Historically, players with significant knee injuries (beyond an ACL tear) usually fail to hit their stride after recovering from injury. The ambiguity surrounding his injury makes predicting his potential impact this season extremely hard.

It seems unlikely that Williams will be ready to go for the Week 2 game against the Commanders. His backup is a player that Washington fans will be quite familiar with, since he was Washington’s 4th round pick in 2017.

JULY UPDATE

Maybe Williams will be ready to start the season after all:

Samaje Perine

Perine has thrived — relatively speaking — since being first thrust into the Jay Gruden doghouse for fumbling issues, and later waived ahead of the ‘19 season.

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Perine landed in Cincinnati, where he spent more than 3 seasons backing up former Oklahoma teammate Joe Mixon. Perine saw only spot duty, but averaged 4.4 yards per carry for the Bengals.

Given Payton’s history of getting numerous players to perform well in his offense, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Perine have the best year of his NFL career in his seventh season in the league. Given his history in Washington, he will likely be fired up to face his old team in front of his new home crowd in Denver.

I suspect that Washington’s run defense, ranked 11th in the NFL in 2022, is not likely to get gashed by the Broncos rushing attack, but, of course, Jack Del Rio’s group is known for being traditionally slow starters. In Week 2 last year, they gave up 191 yards (8.0 average) against the Lions, who were led in rushing by WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. De’Andre Swift averaged 11.0 ypc in that game; Jamaal Williams averaged 4.4, and former Washington practice squad player Craig Reynolds averaged 5.3 yards per carry, so I’m not placing any large bets against Samaje Perine.

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Offensive Line

Here’s an excerpt from the offensive line preview published by SB Nation’s Mile High Report:

The Denver Broncos have struggled for several years to concoct an offensive line that has played with any level of consistency. Injuries have played a big part in the unit’s lack of performance the past few seasons, but the coaching and development of younger players has also been worrisome.

Sticking true to his belief and investment in the trenches, Sean Payton zeroed in on two prized free agent targets by signing right tackle Mike McGlinchey and left guard Ben Powers. By doing so, the Broncos eliminated two major needs heading into the 2023 season.

By adding McGlinchey and Powers, the floor of the Broncos’ offensive line increased dramatically compared to last season. Both are absolute maulers in the run game and Denver should have no problems improving their consistency in that regard when the bright lights turn on this upcoming season.

My biggest concern for the Broncos’ OL unit isn’t their starters—it’s their lack of depth, especially on the interior line. Maybe they find a way to snag some depth before their 53-man roster is solidified during the cutdown process. We will just have to wait and see.

Ben Powers was the guy I most wanted to see the Commanders sign in free agency this season, so I believe the Broncos got a good player there.

PFF seems sold on the changes at the OL position group in Denver, ranking the Broncos offensive line #11 in a recent article:

11. Denver Broncos (Up 10)

Projected Starting Lineup

LT Garett Bolles

LG Ben Powers

C Lloyd Cushenberry III

RG Quinn Meinerz

RT Mike McGlinchey

- The hiring of Sean Payton this offseason came with a clear focus on improving an offensive line that was never quite as bad as it looked in 2022.

- Denver’s line ranked 20th on the season in PFF pass-blocking efficiency, but Russell Wilson was the second-worst quarterback in the league at converting pressure into sacks, warping the view of the line’s performance.

- Best Player: Garett Bolles

- Garett Bolles played in just five games last season, but he has earned a PFF pass-blocking grade above 70.0 in every year of his career and been an excellent run-blocker.

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Defense

Players of note:

• DL: Zach Allen, D.J. Jones, Matt Henningsen
• OLB: Randy Gregory, Frank Clark, Jonathon Cooper
• ILB: Alex Singleton, Josey Jewell
• CB: Pat Surtain, Damarri Mathis, K’Waun Williams
• S: Justin Simmons, Kareem Jackson

Here’s a defensive summary published by Mile High Report:

Back in late October, the Denver Broncos defense was dominating every opponent. According to Football Outsiders, they were the second ranked defense midway through the season. However, injuries began to take its toll on the defense and it showed in the second half the season.

The defense had a defensive DVOA of -19.0% in Week 7, but by the end of the season they had fallen to a DVOA of -5.2%. That ranking is still good for 10th best in the NFL, so this isn’t a slap in the face just noting how the defense struggled to keep up their dominant pace to start the season. When they apply their weighted DVOA rankings, they fall to 18th overall in defensive DVOA at -0.4%.

Some of Denver’s defensive ranks in 2022:

• Yards per game - 320.0 (7th)
• Passing yards per game - 210.2 (12th)
• Rushing yards per game - 109.8 (8th)
• Points per game - 21.1 (14th)
• Takeaways - 23 (15th)

In short, while the Broncos defense did not rate quite as highly as Washington’s did in 2022 (aside from turnovers), they were quite good, and finished in the top half to top quarter of the league. Unlike the Commanders, Denver started fast, then faded a bit in 2022. While the team will have a new defensive coordinator in 2023, it will be Vance Joseph, so he is likely to be getting very good performance out of the group, even in Week 2.