Using estimates of “Total Investment” to look at where to make draft selections

Having come fresh off trying my hand at the development of a mechanism to create a “common currency” between salary cap and draft picks, I wanted to take it for a spin to see how well it holds up to some real world testing. [You really should read that article first, if you want this one to make sense.]

Given the importance of first round draft picks, and the capital investment they represent, I was interested in examining if there were instances where it simply didn’t make sense to spend first round picks on certain positions, particularly when toggling the variable of likely talent ceiling for the players being considered.

Below, I will be examining players with ceilings in four different tiers: Best in the league at his position, top 5, top 10, and top 20.

Potential Best in the League

In this case, the first bar is the highest. “Generational talent” you say? Well, he had better be in order to qualify for this category. This analysis consists of looking at the “total cost” of a player - salary plus pick value - and comparing that to the top paid player at every position in the league.

What you’ll see in the table below is that every single, non-special teams position, on the field can be a reasonable first round investment - if that player has a strong likelihood of being the best at his position in the league.

For each of these exercises, I want you to think about these groups in terms of Washington’s personnel. I don’t think there’s a single Commanders’ fan who would say that the team currently has any (non-special teams) players who are the best in the league at their position. This is an incredibly high threshold, and the reality is that any given draft may only have 2 or 3 players who will ever end up achieving that peak in their careers, but this iteration is useful for anchoring our expectations.

All that having been said, there are several positions, notably running back, tight end, and center, where even if you could be virtually assured of drafting the best in the league, the positional value is sufficiently low to merit anything more than a mid-first round pick. That’s a fairly stark reality.

Potential Top 5

Now that you’ve got the hang of this, let’s cast a bit wider net. Same analysis, this time using the number five salary at each position as the cut off. When projecting the draft pick, will he be a consistent Pro Bowler, with a potential for occasional All Pro? If so, he’s probably worthy of this category.

If we look at the Commanders roster, perhaps Jon Allen alone meets this standard. By coincidence, Jon Allen was the number 17 pick in the 2017 draft who slipped because of injury concerns. As you can see in the table below, the chart would recommend a draft investment of no higher than the 11th pick in an interior defensive lineman of this caliber. Allen was a good deal.

A few key items to point out:

• Quarterback is such a high value position, that even a high likelihood of drafting the fifth best QB in the league merits the number one overall pick.
• WR, EDGE, CB, and LT though are the only other positions that merit a top 10 pick, if the talent ceiling for that player is 5th in the league or worse.
• RG is the only non-special teams position that falls completely out of the first round in this analysis. That is, a right guard who is projected to be 5th best or worse in the league is not worth a first round pick.

Potential Top 10

Casting the net wider again, we really begin to see some movement in the chart at this point. Looking at draftees who have the ceiling of 10th best player in the league at their position, the pool of first round-worthy positions shrinks further.

Let’s consider Commanders who are top 10 at their position. We might include Terry McLaurin, Daron Payne, and Kam Curl, intermittent Pro Bowlers, but players who virtually all the teams in the league would be happy to have starting for them. Looking at the chart below, you see - in particular - what draft steals McLaurin and Curl were.

Key takeaways:

• QB retains its hammerlock at the top of the chart, even when you’re talking about a QB who has a ceiling of “only” 10th best in the league. Curiously though, such a player may not be worth number 1 or 2 overall.
• At this performance threshold, wide receiver is the only position besides QB that merits a top ten pick.
• Several positions drop out of the first round altogether, including RB, LG, C, RG, and RT.

Potential Top 20

The final filter being applied is the most permissive, a top 20 player at his position. So, for the positions on the field where there is only one starter at a time (e.g., QB, OL positions, etc), this would be an average to slightly below average starter. For positions with multiple starters, like WR and all of the defensive positions, this is more likely an above average starter.

Take a look at how that culls the herd in the table below:

Key findings:

• Don’t bother spending a first round draft pick on a quarterback - even a starter - who is likely to be bottom third of the league. He’s not worth it.
• WR, EDGE, CB, and LT are really the only positions worth rolling the dice on in the first for players in this ceiling range.
• For every other position, including RB1, TE1, and likely LB2, and S2, you can (and should) find talent outside the first round.

Conclusion

I’m not sure if there’s anything earth shattering here. In fact, I’m fairly certain there’s not, but as a ground-truthing exercise for this “total investment” accounting approach, I think it points in the right direction.

This exercise, however, really points to the necessity of high end scouting. It’s not enough to simply take the best player available at a position of need. Teams really have to be thinking about what that player’s realistic ceiling is in the context of overall league performance. This is the first of several articles I intend to write about the application of this tool. If you have thoughts on additional thought experiments, please share them below.