For many Washington football fans this is the most exciting part of the season. We have been following the draft, free agency and UDFA signings throughout the offseason. Now it’s time to take the wrapping off the presents and see which ones we really like to play with.

I have commented a few times before that Washington fans, in particular, seem to be overly susceptible to the hype that builds around each season’s new hopefuls. I even had a go at it myself a few weeks ago. While it’s fun to dream - and for Washington fans it’s the most fun we have most seasons – the downside of setting unrealistic expectations is that it leads to disappointment when rookies have normal rookie seasons.

As a service to the Washington fanbase, last season I tried to use historical data on rookie performances to help set reasonable expectations for Washington’s incoming rookies and a few hopeful first year roster bubble players. My first attempt was a bit dissatisfying in hindsight

Reviewing the results, I realized I hadn’t really hit the mark as well as I could have. In order to make this more relevant to what fans are focussed on, I have decided to change it up a bit. I dispensed with estimating the probabilities of bubble players making the roster because players drafted in the first six rounds nearly always do, whether they should or not, and it’s just too hard to put numbers on UDFAs. I also decided to add performance benchmarks based on the average historical performance of players at the same position with similar draft pedigrees.

As I set about developing the benchmark data for Washington’s first draft pick, WR Jahan Dotson, I got into a bit of philosophical bind over what would be the most appropriate comparison. It might make sense to compare him to wide receivers selected in the region of where he was picked in the draft, for example his pick number (16) plus or minus eight picks.

However, this was no ordinary draft for wide receivers. In fact, it was the first time that six wide receivers were taken in the top 20 in the common draft era, probably as a response to the unprecedented escalation of contract values for veteran receivers. Because the market for wide receivers was so distorted, it is possible that a player like Jahan might have been selected much later in most previous drafts. Perhaps, instead of comparing him to players drafted in a similar part of the draft, I should be comparing him to the fifth receiver selected in previous drafts.

Rather than lose sleep over that one, I decided to do both. In the following sections I will estimate the probability of Washington’s rookies and rookie hopefuls to become primary starters (start eight or more games) in their first NFL season and provide performance benchmarks based on two historical player cohorts:

1. Players at the same position picked at similar parts of the previous ten drafts. To get the numbers up for meaningful statistical comparisons, I took advantage of the fact that, after about the first 10 draft picks, the limit of resolution for NFL teams distinguishing the future career potential of draft prospects becomes fairly large, and gets larger as the draft progresses. This allowed me to set a fairly large window of draft picks to compare Washington’s draft picks to after the first round, without compromising the data.
2. Players at the same position picked at the same rank order in the previous ten drafts. For example, since Jahan was the fifth receiver selected in 2022, I benchmarked his performance expectations against the fifth receiver selected in each of the last ten drafts (2012 to 2021).

I then averaged the two sets of benchmarks to produce the final Composite Benchmarks.

Last of all, before we get to the players’ benchmarks, I didn’t make any adjustment for the fact that the NFL season went from 16 to 17 games in 2021. Most of the benchmark data presented here comes from 2012 to 2020. The additional game should account for a 6% increase in production, on average. If you care about that, then just increase all of the benchmarks by 6%.

Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

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Expectations for the 2022 Commanders Draft Class

Jahan Dotson, WR, round 1, pick #16

Comparison cohorts:

Wide Receivers Picked 10^th to 22^nd Overall, 2012 to 2021

Sixteen wide receivers were selected in this range in the previous ten drafts. The best rookie season in this group was posted by Justin Jefferson (22^nd pick), with 88 receptions for 1,400 yards and 7 touchdowns. Not far behind was Odell Beckham Jr. (12^th pick), with 91 receptions for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns. The worst rookie performance of the group was phoned in by Washington’s own Josh Doctson (22^nd pick), with a paltry two receptions for 66 yards in two games played.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 10/16 receivers in this group started 8 or more games as rookies = 0.625S

Average Performance Benchmarks:

The average first-year performance of players in this group provides the first set of performance benchmarks against which we can evaluate Dotson’s rookie campaign:

13 Games Played, 9 Starts, 47 Receptions, 644 Yards, 3 TD, 58% Catch Rate

If Dotson can outperform those numbers, he will have a better-than-average rookie campaign for a wide receiver selected around the middle of the first round.

5^th Wide Receiver Selected, 2012 to 2021

The cohort of 5^th selected wide receivers was once again headlined by Justin Jefferson. The worst rookie performances in this group were handed in by former Redskin Brian Quick (33^rd pick), with 11 receptions for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns, and current Commander, Curtis Samuel (40^th pick), with 15 receptions for 115 yards and no touchdowns. I sense a disturbing trend developing.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 4/10 receivers started 8 or more games as rookies = 0.4

Average Performance Benchmarks:

14 Games Played, 8 Starts, 44 Receptions, 609 Yards, 4 TD, 57% Catch Rate

It is remarkable how similar the average performance statistics of the two comparison cohorts are, given the large difference in draft ranges where they were selected. The first cohort was, of course, selected 10^th to 22^nd overall in their respective draft classes. The second cohort was selected at draft picks ranging from 22^nd (Jefferson) to 56^th (Mecole Hardman) overall. This is another example of how wide receivers selected later in the draft often hold their own with the first few off the board.

Composite Benchmarks

Some readers may not be satisfied with two sets of benchmarks. For their benefit, I compiled a set of composite benchmarks for Jahan, and all of the other rookie draftees, by averaging the two sets of benchmarks:

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 0.512

Average Performance Benchmarks:

13* Games Played, 9* Starts, 46 Receptions, 627 Yards, 4 TD, 57% Catch Rate

The average performance metrics seem reasonable and probably align with most fans’ expectations. The only way that Dotson doesn’t become a primary starter would be injury or some other problem off the field.

*If you are wondering why 13 and 14 Games Played average to 13, or 8 and 9 Starts average to 9, it’s because I am presenting the benchmarks rounded to the nearest whole number. I think this makes sense, because there is no such thing as 9.375 starts or 3.3125 touchdowns.

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Phidarian Mathis, DT, round 2, pick #47

Comparison cohorts:

Defensive Tackles Picked 31^st to 63^rd Overall, 2012 to 2021

There were 21 defensive tackles picked within 16 picks, either direction, of where Phidarian was selected in the previous ten drafts. The title of best rookie campaign in this cohort is a horse race between Raekwon Davis (56^th pick), Malcolm Brown (32^nd pick), Dalvin Tomlinson (55^th pick) and Chris Jones (37^th pick). About six of the players could make an argument for worst rookie campaign, but there were no Josh Doctsons in this group.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 6/21 started 8 or more games as rookies = 0.286

Average Performance Benchmarks:

14 Games Played, 5 Starts, 25 Combined Tackles, 3 Tackles for Loss, 4 QB Hits, 1 Sack, 0 Forced Fumbles, 1 Pass Defended

3^rd Defensive Tackle Selected, 2012 to 2021

There is a lot of overlap between this group and the previous cohort, including headliners Malcolm Brown and Dalvin Tomlinson. There is a clear winner for worst rookie campaign: Robert Nkemdiche (29^th pick) with 5 games played, 0 starts, 1 tackle, 1 QB hit and 1 pass defended.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 4/10 started 8 or more games as rookies = 0.4

Average Performance Benchmarks:

15 Games Played, 6 Starts, 29 Combined Tackles, 3 Tackles for Loss, 3 QB Hits, 2 Sacks, 0 Forced Fumbles, 1 Pass Defended

Like with Jahan Dotson, the two comparison cohorts give very similar performance benchmarks, despite the fact that the second group includes some earlier draft picks: Christian Wilkins (13^th), Michael Brockers (14^th), Sharrif Floyd (23^rd).

Composite Benchmarks

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 0.512

14 Games Played, 5 Starts, 27 Combined Tackles, 3 Tackles for Loss, 4 QB Hits, 1 Sack, 0 Forced Fumbles, 1 Pass Defended

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Brian Robinson, RB, round 3, pick #98

Comparison cohorts:

Running Backs Picked 82^nd to 114^th Overall, 2012 to 2021

Twenty eight running backs were selected within 16 picks, either direction, of Robinson’s pick number in the last decade. Kareem Hunt’s rookie campaign is the outlier of this group, with 1,327 rushing yards for 8 TD and 455 receiving yards for 3 TD in 16 starts. The next best rookie was David Johnson, with 581 rushing yards for 8 TD and 457 receiving yards for 4 TD. The worst draft pick in the bunch was Redskins’ 2019 selection, Bryce Love, who never recovered from the injury that ended his college career to play a single NFL snap. Among players who did make it to the field, the worst rookie performance is a close race between Damien Harris (87^th), with 4 rushes for 12 yards, and Jalston Fowler (108^th) with 7 rushes for 13 yards and 1 TD.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 3/28 started 8 or more games as rookies = 0.107

Average Performance Benchmarks:

13 Games Played, 3 Starts, 92 Rushes, 375 Yards, 2 TDs, 17 Receptions, 148 Yards, 1 TD

6^th Running Back Selected, 2012 to 2021

This group also includes Kareem Hunt and Damien Harris, and so encompasses the same range of best to worst rookie performances, minus Bryce Love. The second-best performance is a tight match between Kerryon Johnson (43^rd pick; 641 rushing yard for 3 TDs, 213 receiving yards for 1 TD) and Duke Johnson (77^th pick; 379 rushing yards and 0 TDs, 534 receiving yards and 2 TDs). Damien sets the floor.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 1/10 backs started 8 or more games as a rookie = 0.1

Average Performance Benchmarks:

11 Games Played, 4 Starts, 97 Rushes, 429 Yards, 2 TDs, 21 Receptions, 159 Yards, 1 TD

Composite Benchmarks

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 0.104

Author’s note: After the first preseason game, I think Robinson has this one covered.

12 Games Played, 3 Starts, 95 Rushes, 402 Yards, 2 TDs, 19 Receptions, 154 Yards, 1 TD

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Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images

Percy Butler, S, round 4, pick #113

Comparison cohorts:

Safeties Picked 97^th to 129^th Overall, 2012 to 2021

Thirty one safeties were selected in this part of the draft in the last decade. The rookie standout of this group was Eddie Jackson (Pick 112), whose debut performance included 2 interceptions, 6 passes defended, 1 forced fumble 73 combined tackles and 1 tackle for loss in 16 starts. While facing some competition from 2020 picks Tanner Muse (Pick 100) and Terrell Burgess (Pick 104), the worst rookie performer was Washington’s (formerly) own Troy Apke, with 1 tackle and no other registered statistics in 2 games played.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 4/31 safeties started 8 or more games as rookies = 0.13

Average Performance Benchmarks:

12 Games Played, 3 Starts, 0 Interceptions, 2 Passes Defended, 0 Forced Fumbles, 0 Sacks, 28 Combined Tackles, 1 Tackle for Loss

10^th Safety Selected, 2012 to 2021

There was quite a bit of overlap with the first cohort here, but that did not include Eddie Jackson. The best first-year performer in this group, John Johnson (91^st pick) put up respectable numbers with 11 starts, 1 INT, 11 PD and 75 combined tackles. The worst was Shawn Davis, who was picked much later in the draft at 165^th overall, and just got on the field for one game and recorded one tackle.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 2/10 safeties started 8 or more games as rookies = 0.2

Average Performance Benchmarks:

10 Games Played, 4 Starts, 0 Interceptions, 4 Passes Defended, 0 Forced Fumbles, 0 Sacks, 32 Combined Tackles, 1 Tackle for Loss

Composite Benchmarks

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 0.16

11 Games Played, 4 Starts, 0 Interceptions, 3 Passes Defended, 0 Forced Fumbles, 0 Sacks, 30 Combined Tackles, 1 Tackle for Loss

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Sam Howell, QB, round 5, pick #144

Comparison cohorts:

Quarterbacks Picked 128^th to 160^th Overall, 2012 to 2021

Only seven QBs were selected in this part of the draft in the last decade. Curiously, six of the seven were selected in a seven-pick span from 133^rd to 139^th overall. The one clear standout of the group was Dak Prescott (Pick 135), who claimed the starting job in camp and put up 3,667 passing yards, 23 TDs to 4 INTs for a 77.6 QBR, en route to being named AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. Neither Brett Hundley (Pick 147) nor Joshua Dobbs (Pick 135) saw the field as rookies. The worst of those that did was Jarrett Stidham (Pick 133), with 2 completions on 4 attempts for 14 yards and 1 INT in 3 games. Not far behind was Ian Book, with 12 completions on 20 attempts and 2 INTs.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 1/7 QBs started 8 or more games as a rookie = 0.14

6^th Quarterback Selected, 2012 to 2021

Like the first comparison cohort, this group included one rookie superstar, Russell Wilson (Pick 75; 3^rd in voting for AP Rookie of the Year, Pro Bowl) and a bunch of guys with pedestrian (Cody Kessler Pick 93, QBR 4.43; CJ Beathard Pick 104, QBR 35.4) to non-existent (Kyle Trask, Jacob Eason, Mason Rudolph, Brett Hundley, Tyler Wilson) rookie performances.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 2/10 QBs (Wilson, Kessler) started 8 or more games as rookies = 0.2

My approach of providing performance benchmarks breaks down with Howell, because of the uneven distributions of performances in the comparison cohorts. In either case, the production stats of the one high-end starter are so much greater than those of the other players that, if I average them, I get stats that are somewhere between the superstar and everyone else, and are not representative of any player in the distribution.

What I take this to mean is that there is a small chance that he is the next late round gem at QB, and a much higher chance that he will end up somewhere between a career backup and a complete washout. To get an idea of what to expect of rookie performances in those two scenarios, I pulled apart the comparison cohorts and rearranged them as follows: Dak and Russell, everyone else.

Scenario 1, Day One Starter

Comparison Cohort: Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson

Probability: 2/16 = 0.125

Average Performance Benchmarks:

16 (pre 2021) Games Played, 16 Starts, 66% Completion Rate, 3,392 Passing Yards, 24 Touchdowns, 7 Interceptions, 75.1 QBR

Scenario 2, Ordinary Late Round QB

Comparison Cohort: QBs picked 128^th to 160^th and 6^th QBs in class, excluding Dak and Russell

Probability: 14/16 = 0.875

Average Performance Benchmarks:

2 Games Played, 1 Start, 28% Completion Rate, 267 Passing Yards, 1 Touchdown, 1 Interception, 10.4 QBR

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Cole Turner, TE, round 5, pick #149

Comparison cohorts:

Tight Ends Picked 133^rd to 165^th Overall, 2012 to 2021

Over the last decade, twenty three TEs were selected in this part of the draft. The best rookie performance was by George Kittle (Pick 146), with 43 receptions for 515 yards and 2 TDs. Four of the TE’s picked in this range did not see the field in their first year (Troy Fumagalli, Jake Butt, Jordan Leggett, Arthur Lynch). The worst of those that did was Brycen Hopkins, who didn’t record a stat in five games. Redskins’ 2017 pick, Jeremy Sprinkle was only about the 8^th worst rookie in the group, with 2 receptions for 13 yards in 11 games. He redeemed himself by scoring a touchdown.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 0/23 TEs started 8 or more games as rookies = 0 (Kittle started 7)

Average Performance Benchmarks:

10 Games Played, 3 Starts, 8 Receptions, 83 Yards, 1 TD

11^th Tight End Selected, 2012 to 2021

There were only nine tight ends selected 11^th in their draft classes in the last decade, because only ten tight ends were drafted in 2014. This cohort sets an even lower bar for Turner. The best of the bunch was 2013 184^th pick, Mychal Rivera, with 38 receptions for 407 yards and 4 TDs in 16 games and 3 starts. The second-best rookie, James O’Shaughnessy, had 87 receiving yards in 7 games and 3 starts. Three of the nine (Zach Davidson, Troy Fumagalli, and Beau Sandland) didn’t see the field as rookies. Tyler Davis (206^th Pick, 2020) played 8 games without catching a pass.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 0/9 TEs started 8 or more games as rookies = 0 (most starts were 2012 240^th pick David Palson and Jeremy Sprinkle, with 5 apiece)

Average Performance Benchmarks:

7 Games Played, 3 Starts, 8 Receptions, 83 Yards, 1 TD

Composite Benchmarks

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 0*

8 Games Played, 2 Starts, 7 Receptions, 73 Yards, 1 TD

*The estimated probability of 0 does not mean that it is impossible for Turner to become a primary starter. It just means that, if he does, he will have accomplished something that no rookie TE selected in the same draft range has done in the last decade.

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Chris Paul, OL, round 7, pick #230

Comparison cohort:

G/OL Selected in the 7^th Round, 2012 to 2021

It gets pretty tricky to distinguish guards and tackles picked this late in the draft. Based on his history, Paul has a chance to play both positions. My search criterion in the Pro Football Reference database was players designated as G or OL, excluding players specifically designated as C or OT. This turned up 47 players drafted in the 7^th round in the previous 10 drafts.

The only stats I have to work with for offensive linemen are games played and games started.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 2/47 G/OL started 8 or more games as rookies = 0.04

Average Performance Benchmarks:

3 Games Played, 1 Start

Note: the starting stats are somewhat skewed by eight players with four or more starts as rookies. 33/47 players didn’t start any games as rookies. The chance that Paul starts any games this year is only around 30%.

It becomes so hard to distinguish between different OL positions for counting purposes in the later rounds, that I couldn’t be bothered to figure out which number G/OL Paul was off the board. Therefore, there is no rank order comparison cohort.

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Christian Holmes, CB, round 7, pick #240

Comparison cohort:

Cornerbacks Selected in the 7^th Round, 2012 to 2021

Distinguishing cornerbacks from safeties in the later rounds presents a similar problem to distinguishing between OL positions. Often they are just labelled DB. Therefore, I searched up cornerbacks and DBs and weeded out any players that I could determine were actually safeties. This resulted in identification of 42 cornerbacks drafted in the 7^th round from 2012 to 2021.

The best rookie performance was turned in by 2013 252^nd pick Marcus Cooper, with 3 INTs and 19 PD in 16 games and 6 starts. Fifteen of the 42 7^th round cornerbacks (36%) didn’t play as rookies.

Probability of Becoming a Primary Starter: 0/42 CBs started 8 or more games as rookies = 0 (Maximum was 7 recorded by 2012 224^th pick Alfonzo Dennard)

Average Performance Benchmarks:

6 Games Played, 1 Start, 0 Interceptions, 2 Passes Defended, 11 Combined Tackles

As with Chris Paul, take the expectation of one start with a grain of salt. Fifteen of the 42 comparable drafted CBs didn’t see any playing time as rookies. This number is somewhat skewed by the six players who registered five or more starts.

Once again, it is just too hard to sort CBs from other DBs for counting purposes this late in the draft, so there is no rank order comparison cohort.

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Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Summary and Conclusions

The performance benchmarks provided here are intended to help readers cut through the preseason hype and develop rational expectations for the Commanders’ rookie class. I tried two different approaches to develop appropriate comparisons and was surprised by how similar the results were. The composite benchmarks, derived by averaging the two sets of metrics, are probably the best way to go.

The benchmark that most readers are likely to have a problem with is Jahan Dotson’s 0.512 probability of becoming a primary starter this season. Despite his disappearing act in the first preseason game, the only way he doesn’t start day one is through injury. I also expect him to exceed the average performance of his predecessors if he stays healthy.

Phidarian Mathis’ composite performance metrics set an expectation that he’ll have about half the production in most categories that Daron Payne registered as a rookie. On the other hand, if he lives up to his draft status he is expected to have a far more productive first year than Matt Ioannidis or Tim Settle, whom he replaced.

The history of running backs with similar draft pedigree does not seem to give Brian Robinson much chance of displacing Antonio Gibson as the primary starter, at around 10%. After the first preseason game, it would be a surprise if Robinson does not start day one. I would give Robinson the best chance of any of these players to well exceed the average rookie season of comparable players.

Percy Butler is where the hype and reality start to diverge. There has been a lot of talk about Butler taking over starting free safety duties this year. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, but if it does happen, it will make him one of the better performing rookie safeties picked in the fourth round this decade. Eleven of the 31 safeties picked in the same draft range as Butler started five or more games as rookies, but ten didn’t start a single game. Taking over as starting FS in 2022 would place him in the top 1/3 of comparable drafted safeties.

Things get interesting with Sam Howell. While very few of the QBs picked that late in the draft did much in the NFL, the two that did became day one starters and are amongst the best QBs in the league. His first NFL appearance was not dissimilar to one of them. I will have more to say about that in my next article.

The most hyped rookie in camp has been Cole Turner. Based on his strong performance in camp, chemistry with Carson Wentz, and injuries to key starters, he should get plenty of opportunities for playing time. However the idea of a rookie TE with rudimentary blocking skills taking the starting job from John Bates or Logan Thomas seems a bit far-fetched. The best performing rookie TE in the last decade picked in the same draft range, George Kittle, started seven games as a rookie and he was a far superior blocker. It is not far-fetched to imagine that Turner could see the field regularly this season as a big receiver. But expect the starting job to be retained by the more well-rounded veterans, John Bates and then Logan Thomas when healthy.

Rounding up the pack are seventh round picks Chris Paul and Christian Holmes. If either player makes it off the practice squad and onto the game day roster, they will be doing better than about a third of comparable drafted players. If either player sees the field for eight games, they will have exceeded expectations. Paul might have a bit of an edge here due to the rash of injuries to Washington’s guards.

Acknowledgement: Thanks as usual to James Dorsett for editorial assistance

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