How Did They Do?

On the eve of the 2021 season, I did a piece entitled “What are their Chances?” evaluating the chances of the Football Team’s rookie class members earning playing time and starts. My intention was to help readers cut through the hype and form reasonable expectations for their favorite first-year players. To estimate the probabilities of players earning a roster spot and earning starting time, I analyzed the historical performance of players at the same position selected in similar ranges of the draft.

As we prepare to welcome the inaugural Commanders’ rookie class to the NFL, I thought it would be instructive to revisit the odds as they looked at this point in the season last year, and see how the 2021 rookie class performed relative to expectations.

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Jamin Davis, Middle Linebacker, 1^st round, pick #19

Comparison: Linebackers selected 17^th to 32^nd from 2009 to 2018

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot (playing at least one game in 2021) = 12/12 LBs drafted 17 to 32^nd = 1.00

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = 10/12 = 0.83

Actual Results:

8 starts, 16 games played

76 total tackles, 3 tackles for loss, 2 QB hits, 1 pass defended

While Jamin was a disappointment to most fans, he wasn’t the four-alarm dumpster fire that would have been required to keep him from achieving expectations by starting the minimum of five games.

Davis’ eight starts ranked 6^th among all linebackers (ILBs and OLBs combined) in the 2021 draft class, behind 3^rd round pick Baron Browning (9 GS), and 2^nd round picks Azeez Ojulari (13 GS), Nick Bolton (12 GS), and Washington mock draft favorite Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (10 GS). Davis actually looks better in comparison to linebackers selected in the first round only, ranking 2^nd of four, ahead of Zaven Collins (16^th pick, 6 GS) and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (32^nd pick, 6 GS). In the first round, he only trailed AP DROY and first-year All Pro Micah Parsons (12^th pick, 16 GS).

Davis ranked similarly within his LB draft class by other measures. He ranked 6^th by Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value (AV 4; comparison Micah Parsons AV 18), 3^rd by total tackles, 6^th by tackles for loss, 5^th by sacks, and 9^th by passes defended.

Davis’ rookie performance was not on the same level as 58^th overall pick Nick Bolton (112 total tackles, 11 TFL, 3 PD), and was statistically comparable to 2^nd and 3^rd round picks Baron Browning, Pete Werner, JOK, and Ernest Jones. While that might seem a little underwhelming for the 19^th overall pick, at least he wasn’t as disappointing as 16^th overall pick LB Zaven Collins (17 games, 6 GS, 25 total tackles, 1 TFL, 3 PD).

Verdict: below expectation for his draft status, but not a complete disaster

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Sam Cosmi, OT, 2^nd round, pick #51

Comparison: Offensive Tackles selected in the 2^nd round from 2009 to 2018

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = 27/27 = 1.00

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = 18/27 = 0.67

Actual Results:

9 starts, 9 games played

Cosmi locked up the starting job in camp and was only kept off the field by injuries.

Cosmi ranked third amongst all NFL tackles in Run Block Win Rate, which is exceptional for a rookie. He also only allowed 16 pressures in 282 pass-blocking snaps (someone with a PFF subscription can tell me where that ranks). Cosmi was on his way to staking a claim as one of the best tackles in the rookie class before his season was derailed by injuries. He certainly vastly exceeded expectations for a Washington 2^nd round draft pick.

Verdict: exceeded expectations

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Benjamin St-Juste, CB, 3^rd round, pick #74 (10t CB)

Comparison: Cornerbacks selected in the 3^rd round from 2009 to 2018

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = 18/18 = 1.00

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = 6/18 = 0.33

Actual Results:

3 starts, 9 games played

3 passes defended, 0 interceptions, 26 total tackles, 1 tackle for loss

St-Juste didn’t beat the odds by earning significant starting time as a rookie. He did fairly well for a 3^rd round rookie cornerback, but his playing time was significantly impacted by injuries, resulting in eight games missed, including the final six of the season.

In limited playing time, St-Juste showed flashes of promise. He was the 10^th CB selected in the draft. His 3 passes defended puts him in a five-way tie for 14^th in the rookie class. Two of the players he is tied with had more games started, and three played in more games.

St-Juste has had a strong 2022 offseason and appears poised to be the primary slot corner heading into the preseason.

Verdict: about on par with expectations, maybe slightly below, shame about the injuries

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Dyami Brown, WR, 3^rd round, pick # 82

Comparison: Wide receivers selected in the 3^rd round from 2009 to 2018

Preseason Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = 47/48 = 0.98

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = 11/48 = 0.23

Actual Results:

6 starts, 15 games played

25 targets, 12 receptions, 165 yards, 0 TDs, 6 first downs

Dyami actually beat the odds by earning six starts as a rookie, but that might have as much to do as the lack of competition at WR behind Terry McLaurin in 2021 as it did with his performance.

A lot of fans seem to think that Dyami’s rookie season was a big disappointment but, to a certain extent, he may just be a victim of the hype that was built around his “third-round steal” status. Dyami was the 12^th WR selected in 2021. His 12 receptions rank 12^th in his draft class; his 165 receiving yards rank 11^th. Brown’s performance was spot on relative to where he was drafted. And that was all done catching passes from Tyler Heinicke, who is not exactly the deep-threat receiver’s best friend.

Compared to other WR selected in the third round in 2021, Brown doesn’t look quite as good, although the sample size is small. Josh Palmer (77^th pick) and Nico Collins (89^th pick) both had more than twice as many receptions and receiving yards. The other 3^rd round WR, Anthony Schwartz had very similar numbers to Brown. On the other hand, only two of 23 receivers who were still on the board when Brown was picked posted better numbers: Amon-Ra St. Brown (112^th pick, 4^th leading receiver in class, 912 yds) and Nico Collins (446 yds). Ron and the Martys would need to have chosen very carefully or got lucky to have done any better with this pick.

Verdict: met expectations

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John Bates, TE, 4^th round, pick # 124

Comparison: Tight Ends selected in the 4^th round from 2009 to 2018

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = 24/24 = 1.00

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = 12/24 = 0.50

Actual Results:

8 starts, 17 games played

25 targets, 20 receptions, 249 yards, 1 TD, 11 first downs

Bates won the coin flip on the 50/50 odds of earning starting time as a rookie. Of course, he benefited from Logan Thomas getting injured in Week 4, but Bates acquitted himself well when he got the opportunity. The key to his staying on the field was his blocking ability, which doesn’t show up in the stats.

As a receiver, Bates also performed above the expectations of his draft status. He was the 6^th TE taken in his draft class, yet ranked 3^rd in receptions (three-way tie with Tommy Tremble and Brevin Jordan), 3^rd in receiving yards, and 3^rd in first downs.

Verdict: exceeded expectations

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Darrick Forrest, S, 5^th round, pick # 163

Comparison: Safeties selected in the 5^th round from 2009 to 2018

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = 10/11 = 0.91

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = 2/11 = 0.18

Actual Results:

0 starts, 8 games played

7 total tackles, 1 QB hit, 0 interceptions, 0 passes defended

Forrest wasn’t expected to earn starting time and he lived up to expectations. He got his first game time in week 9 and played the vast majority of his snaps on special teams, with only 6 defensive snaps in game 15 and 20 in game 17.

Things could get interesting for Forrest in 2022, since he has looked good when given opportunities at Buffalo Nickel in minicamp and training camp, and there is no entrenched starter.

Verdict: met expectations

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Camaron Cheeseman, LS, 6^th round, pick #225

Comparison: other long snappers

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = probably 100%. Who drafts a long snapper then cuts them in camp?

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = Not a starting position

Actual Results:

0 starts, 17 games

What is there to say about a long snapper? Cheeseman got the ball where it needed to go and didn’t botch any snaps. I guess that’s about what you’d expect.

Verdict: Who cares?

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William Bradley-King, DE, 7^th round, pick #240

Comparison: Defensive Ends selected in the 7^th round from 2009 to 2018

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = 30/39 = 0.77

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = 0/39 = 0.00

Actual Results:

0 starts, 3 games

5 total tackles, 1 QB Hit, 0.5 sack

WBK did not pull off the miracle and earn starting time as a 7^th round rookie. He did make good use of his 59 defensive snaps, notching a QB hit, half a sack and a half dozen tackles.

Verdict: met low expectations

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Shaka Toney, DE, 7^th round, pick #246

Comparison: Defensive Ends selected in the 7^th round from 2009 to 2018

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = 30/39 = 0.77

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = 0/39 = 0.00

Actual Results:

1 start, 10 games

8 total tackles, 1 TFL, 3 QB Hits, 1.5 sack

Like his fellow 7^th round DE, Toney failed to do the impossible and earn significant starting time as a rookie. He did earn one start and twice as much playing time (118 defensive snaps), which he put to even better use as a disruptive force in the backfield. Some of us are hoping that his skillset will be put to better use this season as a strong side linebacker with situational pass rushing duties.

Verdict: met low expectations

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Dax Milne, WR, 7^th round, pick # 258

Comparison: Wide receivers selected in the 7^th round from 2009 to 2018

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = 39/54 = 0.72

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = 4/54 = 0.07

Actual Results:

1 start, 13 games

9 receptions, 83 yards, 0 TD, 4 first downs

People who watched Zach Wilson’s highlight reels prior to the 2021 draft may have been disappointed that Dax Milne did not set the world on fire as a rookie. But remember, he was the second-to-last player drafted.

While his statistics are not hugely impressive when viewed in isolation, they are actually not too bad for the 34^th WR drafted in his class. His nine receptions place him ahead of 18 of his classmates, including 2^nd round pick Tutu Atwell; and his 83 receiving yards rank him 18^th in the class.

Verdict: exceeded low expectations

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Jaret Patterson, RB, UDFA

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = impossible to estimate

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = 0.09

Actual Results:

1 start, 17 games

68 rushing attempts, 266 yards, 2 TD, 15 first downs; 10 receptions, 73 yards, 5 first downs

I went to great lengths to try to estimate the probability of a UDFA earning starting time as a rookie. It was a fool’s errand. Patterson earned one start by virtue of Antonio Gibson being out with an injury in Week 16. Nevertheless, Patterson’s play exceeded any reasonable expectation of a UDFA running back.

In the 10 years from 2009 to 2018, 192 UDFA running backs saw playing time as rookies. Only 32 of those players earned more than one start. Patterson’s 266 rushing yards ties him with the 12^th ranked player on that list. That means that, on average, only 1.2 UDFA RBs per season have had better first year performances than Patterson during that period.

Verdict: exceeded expectations

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Sammis Reyes, TE, UDFA

Pre-season Probabilities:

Probability of earning a roster spot = impossible to estimate

Probability of starting at least five games as a rookie = ditto

Actual Results:

1 start, 11 games, 39 offensive snaps, 145 special teams snaps

0 receptions, 2 total tackles

Despite months of over the top hype leading up to the season, Reyes did about as well as you’d expect of a UDFA tight end, who had never played a snap of American football prior to 2021. He is facing an increasing amount of competition to make the roster at tight end this season. I think he might benefit from a switch to fullback.

Verdict: met expectations

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Summary and Conclusions

I have a theory that those fans who have stuck with the Washington football team tend to have an overly optimistic outlook, which makes them susceptible to hype about each season’s new players. This leads us to be disappointed when the rookie players don’t live up to our unrealistic expectations.

In order to better calibrate our expectations, I compared the first-year performances of Washington’s 2021 rookie class to players at the same positions picked in similar ranges of the draft and in similar rank order within their draft classes.

Viewed relative to draft status, only one of the 2021 draft picks played significantly below expectations. Unfortunately, that was the most important draft selection, first-round pick Jamin Davis. Hopefully he will improve with the switch to a less demanding role and with further coaching and development.

To this point in their development, seven members of the twelve-man rookie class played at expectations relative to their draft (or undrafted) status. These included Benjamin St. Juste, Dyami Brown, Darrick Forrest, Camaron Cheeseman, William Bradley-King, Shaka Toney and Samis Reyes. Of course, simply playing up to expectations is no guarantee of a successful NFL career for players picked after around the middle of the third round. Most players picked later in the draft don’t last very long.

Four of the 2021 rookies exceeded expectations based on comparable players: Sam Cosmi, John Bates, Dax Milne and Jaret Patterson. At this point in time, at least three of these players look like steals. Milne has really only exceeded expectations because the expectations for a wide receiver picked at the end of the draft are so low.

A lot could change as these players enter their second seasons. Benjamin St. Juste, Dyami Brown and Darrick Forrest, in particular, will have opportunities to elevate their status on the team. It will be exciting to watch through the pre-season to see which of them can take advantage and which new players will emerge.

On that note, in my next instalment I will start to set expectations for the 2022 draft class.

Acknowledgement: thanks to James Dorsett for his usual editorial input.

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