This year, for the second draft in a row, I had a try at making Bold Predictions about the Commanders’ draft and the draft as a whole.
Rather than simply opening myself up for pot shots in the comments section, this year I challenged readers to post their own bold predictions. I took any comment which contained a forward-looking statement regarding the draft to be an entry, including comments on other posters’ comments, provided that I could interpret them.
I have already had a look back at my own predictions. I didn’t ace the test, but I did pick as many winners as Washington has in any of its best drafts of the last decade.
Now it is time to see which Hogs Haven commenter got the most bold predictions on the money. I scored entries by simply awarding one point for each correct prediction. There was no limit on numbers of predictions and no deductions for incorrect predictions. The more often a commenter went bold and got it right, the more points they got. All comments by each poster are compiled into one entry.
Now, without further ado, here are the contest entries and winners:
No Points, but Thanks for Playing
Noplayoffs4u 0 pts
1. We take Drake London, everyone here loses it and claims it’s a disaster Incorrect
London ends up being a stud on the field and has a solid year.
(anything playoff related was edited out)
2. We don’t take a QB in this draft. Incorrect
3. Heres comes Linderbaum !!!! hahaha....
Incorrect – since this is Hogs Haven, not Baltimore Beatdown
NiteTrainLayne 0 pts
The Commodes trade their 2 7th round picks, and their 5th rounder to move up and draft a new punter. Incorrect, sadly
Cuz we all know they will be so bad they will need an even better punter than Tress Way.
They will trade up to select Matt Araiza, Punter, San Diego St. He routinely boots it 90 yards in the air and also can kick 50+ yard field goals. Incorrect
Twice Thriced 0 pts
My only guarantee is that among the current crop of QBs, one will prove to be a franchise QB, he will be there @ 11, and the team that drafts him will not be named the Commanders. Incomplete, keep an eye on Kenny Pickett
Pyrotech 0 pts
Matt, I think your predictions are likely dead on. Incorrect
So my 1st is Olave Incorrect
…and 2nd is whoever most resembles a Buffalo Nickel S/LB. Results will be inconclusive. Incorrect, S/Nickel Back Jaquan Brisker was selected immediately after Washington picked DT Phidarian Mathis
4th is where they get frisky and pass on a future Pro Bowler to trade with someone for a 2023 4th and a 5th this year, who will yield a JAG. However their 6th will surprisingly turn out to be decent. Incorrect, Incorrect
Bppjr 0 pts
Dallas will draft a player that Washington passed on, and we all wanted, and that player will destroy Washington for the next 5-7 years every time the two teams play. Incomplete and I can’t think who it might be. Damone Clark, maybe?
MattInBrisVegas 0 pts
This one came to me late, so it didn’t make the list: The Commanders will finally draft a fullback/H-back. His name is Chigoziem Okonkwo, currently miscast as a TE by U MD. Incorrect
MrParty 0 pts
A punter will be drafted on Day 2, restoring sanity to the draft after years of neglect. Incorrect. It is still a mad world.
DMN1 0 pts
My draft prediction: Pick #3 or Pick #4 will cause most of the people on this board to question what the heck the front office is doing and that the entire draft is a bust! That particular pick will suck, giving more fuel on HH to firing the entire front office during the 2022 season. Tough call – Reaction to the Robinson pick was mixed. Outside Washington football circles Butler was seen as a reach, but a few commentators were high on the player and Washington fans seem to have embraced the pick. Should have gone for Pick #2.
MFTA 0 pts
I think they’ll add one pick in rounds 2-4 and at least one pick in the 7th. They’ll get the mid-round pick by trading or bundling future draft picks (sigh) Incorrect
Additional 7th will be generated by trading down from existing 6th or 7th round picks. Incorrect
Honorable Mentions – One Correct Prediction
BarNunn 1 pt
Bold prediction- they trade Sweat during the draft and Payne, allowing the new GMs to build the team in their own image. Currently our best players were drafted by the previous regime. If they don’t want to live in the shadow, get rid of the shadow. Incorrect
My Bold prediction, Payne gets traded to the Bucs for their 3rd round pick. #91 Incorrect
My only bold prediction is that whoever we draft in the first 2 rounds, we will have passed on another player that makes a bigger impact on the team that drafts them. Correct – I’m willing to call it in advance, several players available at #16 and #47 will outperform the Commanders’ selections at those picks.
All dc and unc 1 pt
1. 50% of the posters here will be mad as sh** and 50% will be Happy after day 1…
Incorrect – According to the poll, as of the end of Day 1, 2073 out of 2711 Hogs Haven voters (76%) graded the pick A through C, roughly equivalent to happy to meh. Only 638 (23%) gave it grades of D (really unhappy) to E (mad as sh*t).
2. 2 weeks later 90% of us will have sold ourselves into believing the picks were better than they were..: WASHINGTON FOOTBALL. Correct
Scott Jennings 1 pt
Is #1 wishful thinking? And yes, it’s Chris Olave. Incorrect
Jets at #10 [draft a WR]. Correct
Rook6980 1 pt
The Texans also need an Offensive Tackle; and could take one of the best in Evan Neal at pick #3, but I predict they’ll go Cornerback with their first pick (#3). Correct – Derek Stingley is the pick
While the Giants say “thank you very much and take Neal at #5 Incorrect – nearly got it, Giants select Neal with their second pick, 7th overall
…and the Jets take Ikem Ekwonu at #10. Incorrect
The Texans will then set their sights on Charles Cross for their 2nd first-round pick (#13). Incorrect
Washington will trade back with Baltimore…Baltimore, who has 10 picks in this draft (including 7 in the third and fourth rounds) needs an Offensive Tackle. Specifically a Left Tackle. Baltimore trades Round 1 Pick #14 + Round 3 Pick #76 + Round 4 Pick #128 for Washington Round 1 Pick #11 (about a 12% premium; Rich Hill model. or 8% premium; Jimmy Johnson model). They jump Houston and select Charles Cross. Incorrect
With the 14th pick in the NFL draft, the Washington Commanders select Drake London, from the University of Southern California (Who was surprisingly still on the board at #14). Incorrect
Kansas City Chiefs trade 3rd-round pick (#94) to Washington for Daron Payne. Incorrect
Washington uses one of it’s 3rd-round picks to select Perrion Winfrey, DT Oklahoma. Incorrect
He [Olave] was eventually taken by KC Chief at #29 – about where I think his value is… certainly NOT at #14. Incorrect
LASkin 1 pt
They [Jaguars] are going to show their idiocy this year by selecting a DE who played DT in college, was a one year wonder there, and was a Combine warrior. He is the sort of guy that Al Davis would have taken in a heartbeat. They are going to take him over one of the safest DE picks ever in Hutchinson. When has that type of thought process ever failed? Correct
Hitmeimopen 1 pt
I think the Commodes will pick Payne’s eventual replacement. Correct
Bronze Medal - Two Correct
Kleindropper 2 pts
1. Eagles will trade to move up and take a QB (again). Incorrect
2. Washington will draft defense in the 1st. Incorrect
3. Alternatively, Washington will trade back from #11 to take a WR in the 1st. Correct – but major boldness deduction for covering your bases
4. Zero RBs taken in the 1st round (not a shocker this year). Correct
Second Place – Three-Way Tie on Three Points
OffSeasonOptimist 3 pts
1. 3 QBs are selected in the top-25 picks. In order they will be: Willis, Pickett, Ridder. Only Willis goes top 10. Incorrect – only Pickett was selected in the top 25
2. Washington’s first two picks are a combination of a DB and a WR/RB (offensive weapon). Incorrect, no partial credit for the WR
3. Stingley goes before Sauce. Correct – bonus points for getting it exactly right: Stingley 3, Sauce 4
4. No off-the-ball LBs go in the first round. Incorrect – Quay Walker and Devin Lloyd were both off the board by 27
5. Travon Walker “falls” out of the top 10. Later: Let me retract #5. I think he goes #1. If the Jags didn’t take him I would expect a slide (crazy year), but now I expect the Jags to take him. Correct
6. As does Evan Neal. Incorrect
7. Three safeties go in the first round. Correct – Kyle Hamilton, Daxton Hill, Lewis Cine
8. Tyler Smith (who?) goes top 20. Incorrect – but very close, Jerruh strikes at 24
9. Buffalo, being a top five FO and understanding positional value better than us mere mortals, drafts Breece Hall with their first round pick. Incorrect
10. I do terribly in the NFL’s predict the pick (which anyone can join and “compete” against me here: https://predictpick.nfl.com/group/5289). Probably Correct
TheGump 3 pts
1. Washington trades back from 11, with the likeliest trader partners being the Ravens, Packers, Chiefs, Saints and Steelers (in that order). Correct - but minor boldness deduction for naming five teams
2. If bold prediction 1 doesn’t happen, it’s only to draft Kyle Hamilton, who arguably fills three needs in one - Buffalo Nickel, Safety and LB. In which case they move back from 47, quite possibly out of Round 2 completely. NA
3. Washington adds Jeremiah Gemmell, either in the 7th round or as an UDFA. Incorrect
4. We add a player with returning ability. I would love it to be Marcus Jones who also fills a need at CB, but 47 is too rich and I don’t see him being there at 113 so would need a trade back. More likely to be Trestan Ebner or Brittain Covey as a 7th rounder or UDFA. Correct - the Commanders first round pick, Jahan Dotson, returned 25 punts for 338 yards and 1 TD at Penn State. Third round pick RB Brian Robinson returned 11 kicks for 166 yards. Fifth round pick Cole Turner had one return for zero yards. It’s probably not Turner.
5. No matter what happens in the draft, in post-draft free agency, with Terry’s contract, with the Daron Payne situation and no matter how many more boneheaded decisions our brainstrust makes, I’ll end up going into week 1 with a naively high level of optimism that will result once more in bitter disappointment as we end the season 7 and 10. And so the cycle will continue. Correct – easily projected in advance
ThaDers 3 pts
1) Kyle Hamilton makes it past #11. Correct
2) Sam Howell is the best QB of this year’s draft. Incomplete
3) Commanders don’t address secondary or LB in first two rounds, and Correct
4) also draft a QB after round 2. Correct
The Boldest of the Bold
With four points for four correct bold predictions the grand prize winner is:
1. The formerly known as WFT will receive multiple offers to trade back. The ultimately will accept to swap the 11th pick. Correct
2. The formerly known as WFT will draft a WR in the first round. Correct
3. The formerly known as WFT will have secure a draft pick in the third round. Correct
In reply to amalaziz
1 out of 3 ain’t bad. Incorrect
In reply to Scott Jennings
I think you owe me an apology. Correct
In reply to amalaziz
I don’t. Incorrect
Congratulations to amalaziz, and thanks to all the commenters who were bold enough to put their predictions in writing. I’ll let Scott give amalaziz his prize.
Which bold prediction is most likely to come true?
This poll is closed
One franchise QB will emerge from this draft. It won’t be Howell.
A player drafted by Dallas that Washington passed on will destroy the Commanders every time the two teams play for the next 5-7 years.
Sam Howell will be the best QB of this year’s draft.
Skyy Moore will have the best rookie season of any WR in this draft.
Green Bay’s "reach" for LB Quay Walker in the first round will look like a wise move in a few years.
The Commanders’ "reach" for Percy Butler in the fourth round will look like a wise move in a few years.
Phidarian Mathis, DROY