Commanders Wild Card Watch - Week 14 NFC Playoff Projections

Playoffs!

By Bill-in-Bangkok@billhorgan2005 Dec 5, 2022, 5:00am EST

I intend to publish the Wild Card Watch as a weekly series for as long as Washington has a reasonable chance of earning a playoff spot.

A total of 9 losses on the season by Washington at any point will probably bring the series to an abrupt end.

Until then, I’ll keep my eye on the playoff prize and ignore the 2023 draft for as long as there’s a chance at the postseason.

If you aren’t interested in this kind of article, now would be a good time to return to the front page and look for something less optimistic to read.

The thoughts in this article are my own, and do not represent the views of Hogs Haven, its other writers or its managing editor.

NFC Conference overview

Let’s start with a review of the NFC standings as of today (because the Falcons lost on Sunday, the outcome of the Saints-Buccaneers game on Monday Night Football won’t change anything relevant to Washington’s playoff hopes).

The four divisional leaders are circled in blue, and would be seeded 1 - 4 if the playoffs were set based on today’s standings. Under these seedings, the Eagles would get the bye for the wildcard round and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Vikings, Niners and Buccaneers would play the 5th thru 7th seeded wildcard teams. Even a loss by the Buccaneers on MNF won’t change this because Tampa Bay holds at least the first two tie-breakers over the Falcons.

Tie breakers mostly don’t matter for Washington anymore

The tie on Sunday makes things simple for Washington as far as playoff tiebreakers are concerned. Absent another tie before the end of the season, all Washington needs to do to get into the playoffs ahead of any NFC wildcard contender other than the Giants is to match that team’s win total.

If Washington beats the Giants in their next game (Week 15), then the same will be true for them as well. A loss to New York in Washington’s next game would be detrimental to the Commanders’ chances of making the postseason.

Based on the standings at the end of Week 13, the Wildcard weekend would see the following matchups:

Dallas at Tampa Bay
NY Giants at San Francisco
Seattle at Minnesota

Washington’s tie with the Giants, combined with Seattle’s victory over the Rams has — for the moment — dropped Washington out of the 7th seed.

The keys to Washington’s playoff hopes at this point are:

beating the Giants in Week 15
what happens in the NFC West now that Jimmy Garoppolo has suffered a season-ending injury

What happens in the NFC West?

For practical purposes, either the Seahawks or 49ers will win the NFC West. The season-ending injury to the Niners’ starting quarterback seems to tip the scales in the Seahawks’ favor. Given that no tie-breakers come into play anymore for Washington (aside from the Giants), it really doesn’t matter which of the two wins the division.

The focus of Commanders fans will be on the team that doesn’t win the NFC West division, and how many wins that team ends up with. Seattle and San Fran play each other in Week 15 — the same week as the Washington-New York rematch — so, absent any more ties, that weekend will go a long way towards deciding who gets in and who stays out of the playoff seedings.

Personally, I think the loss of Garoppolo is likely to dramatically alter the trajectory of the Niner’s season, though the projected wins & losses scenario that I’m using in this week’s article doesn’t reflect that.

Washington plays the 49ers in Week 16, at which point it’s entirely possible that SF could be 8-6 and a half-game behind the 8-5-1 Commanders, giving Washington a huge opportunity.

But that’s still 3 weeks away, with a lot of football to be played in between. With a Week 14 bye, all Washington can do is wait for the next opportunity.

Stick a fork in ‘em

I’ve removed every team from this playoff analysis except for the Giants & Cowboys, Seahawks & Niners, and the Detroit Lions. The NFC South race is no longer relevant to the Commanders. If the Falcons win every remaining game, they can only achieve 9 wins, which means the only way they get in ahead of Washington is if the Commanders go 1-3 to end the season. If that happens, nothing I write in this article will get the burgundy & gold into the postseason.

Current Competition - projection model

I don’t pretend for a moment that I can predict wins & losses for a half-dozen teams over a five-week period, but I think that it’s worth having a model that can be used from week to week to chart a path to the playoffs for the Commanders.

And that’s what you’ll see below — a model that is designed to show, not how the Commanders will fail to make it, but a model that shows what seems to be a reasonable path to the postseason.

The tie with the Giants has made things very simple for Washington. All tie-breaking scenarios have been eliminated except for the New York Giants; with any other NFC wildcard contender, the mission is simple — match or exceed their win total.

Since this series is not about predicting the future, but exploring possibilities, this week I’m looking at what happens if Washington and New York end the season with identical records. To make the tie-breaker meaningful, I have assumed that things go well for the Niners, Seahawks and Lions overall, while the Commanders and Giants both finish the season with just two more wins. Let me repeat that I don’t actually think the 49ers will manage to go 3-2 in their remaining games, but I wanted to use this as an opportunity to discuss tie-breakers in another division.

In this model, the division champs for the North and East are presumed to be the Vikings and Eagles. Whoever wins the NFC South (Bucs or Falcons) will be the only team from that division in the playoffs.

With Dallas at 9-3, this is probably the last week that I’ll bother to put them in this article. Assuming they beat the Texans this week to move to 10-3, they will soon be out of consideration for anything below the 5th seed.

With the wins & losses that I have projected here, this is what would happen for the wildcard seedings:

5th seed

The 5th seed would go to the Dallas Cowboys as the only non-division champion to win 13 games.

6th seed

The 49ers and Seahawks would be tied at 11-6. One of them will be the division winner, while the other will be the 6th seed.

Head-to-head competition - The Niners have already beaten the Seahawks (Week 2). In this scenario, I have the Seahawks winning the Week 15 rematch at home. This means that neither team wins this tie-breaker.
Conference record - in this scenario, the Niners and Seahawks both finish with records of 8-4 against NFC opponents, so there is no result from this tie breaker.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four - Here is the list of teams that the49ers and Seahawks have in common, with results (both actual results and those projected in my model):

San Francisco, with a 9-3 record in 12 games against common opponents, would win the tiebeaker against Seattle, with a 7-5 record against common opponents.

In truth, it doesn’t really matter to the Commanders which of the two teams wins the division, but, in this scenario, the Niners would win the NFC West division and the Seahawks would earn the 6th seed in the Conference playoff seedings.

7th seed

In this scenario, there are three teams with 9 wins apiece; however, by virtue of their tie, the Giants and Commanders would both be a half-game ahead of the Lions.

Head-to-head competition - The first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition. In this scenario, I have Washington winning the Week 15 rematch at FedEx Field, giving Washington the advantage and the 7th seed in the NFC, and eliminating the Giants from the postseason.

The critical importance of beating the Giants in Week 15

A week ago, I said that I thought the Commanders had about a 60/40 chance of making the playoffs. Following Sunday’s tie, I’m dropping my personal odds back to 50/50 for making the playoffs, which is where I had them prior to the Texans game.

If Washington beats the Giants in Week 15, the result will be a huge upward spike in the odds for postseason play. A loss to the Giants would be less than a stake through the heart, but not much less, since it would leave Washington hoping for a December-January collapse by either the 49ers or Seahawks.

Given that Washington and New York just played to a tie on Sunday afternoon, I don’t see how the odds can be anything but even at this point, even assuming that the Eagles inflict another loss on the G-men this Sunday.

Div record tiebreaker is only relevant for 1 week. As soon as the Wk 15 game between WAS & NY is over, the only tiebreaker that matters is head-to-head, unless they play to another tie.

Nothing between these 2 teams matters more at this point than the outcome of Wk 15 rematch. https://t.co/0gyM4AizLL
— Bill-in-Bangkok (@billhorgan2005) December 5, 2022

As always, Washington’s playoff hopes rely on the team continuing to win, though it’s not necessary for them to go undefeated. Because they lost too many games early in the season, they don’t have much margin for error remaining at this point.

If they lose to the Giants in Week 15, then the Commanders would probably need to win their 3 final games to have a chance to qualify for the playoffs. A victory in Week 15 leaves a lot more wiggle room.

By losing just one game in the past 8 weeks, the Commanders have put themselves into a good position for the postseason, but by failing to get the win this past Sunday in New York, they’ve ratcheted up the importance of winning the rematch, since Washington can no longer rely on the advantage they previously had in conference record. Nothing comes easy with this team, and their fight to qualify for the playoffs may not be resolved until the final whistle blows in Week 18.

This week’s rooting guide

If you want to know who to root for in this weekend’s games, here’s a handy rooting guide aimed at maximizing Washington’s chances of earning a wildcard seeding:

Thursday

Raiders at Rams
It’s hard to believe that I’m saying this, but the defending super bowl champion LA Rams are a non-factor in this year’s playoff picture. Feel free to cheer for whomever you want in this game.

Sunday

Texans at Cowboys
As futile as it is likely to be, root for the Texans to pull off the miracle against the Cowboys, who are currently 14.5-point favorites per DraftKings.

Vikings at Lions
As mentioned in the article, from a practical standpoint, the Lions cannot keep Washington out of the postseason, and the Vikings, 3-point favorites in this game, are not going to be competing for a wildcard spot. BUT...

The Vikings are still in a position to potentially knock the Eagles out of the #1 seed, which I’m in favor of. When it comes to the Vikings & Cowboys for #2 & #3 seed, I prefer to see the two teams stay where they are relative to one another for two reasons. The first is that I like the idea of playing the Vikings in the Wilcard round, which is what we’d get with #2 vs #7. I don’t relish the idea of playing the Cowboys in Week 18, then lining up and playing them again 6 or 7 days later.

So, let’s cheer on the Vikings in hopes of dislodging the Eagles from the top seed, and to minimize the likelihood of back-to-back games against the Cowboys. SKOL!

Eagles at Giants
Man, talk about Sophie’s choice! This one won’t be cheering for a win; rather, it’ll be rooting for a loss. A loss by the Eagles does nothing to advance Washington’s postseason aspirations; a loss by the Giants is a huge piece of the Commanders’ playoff puzzle. Don’t think of it as rooting for the Eagles...just close your eyes and try to enjoy the Giants loss. The Eagles are favored by 6 points.

Panthers at Seahawks
While my “scenario” above said that wins & losses for NFC West teams don’t really matter with respect to Washington’s playoff hopes, that applied just to my hypothetical example. In the real world, we want the Panthers (who are 6.5-point underdogs per DraftKings) to hang an “L” on the ‘Hawks. #KEEPPOUNDING

Buccaneers at 49ers
Unlike the NFC West, what I said about the NFC South before does apply in real life. It’s irrelevant whether the Bucs or Falcons win the division. Washington fans want to see the Seahawks and Niners take as many hits as possible.

If I’m reading my notes right, 7th round QB Brock Purdy ~~Brooks~~— actually, 2022’s “Mr. Irrelevant” — will be getting his first NFL start this Sunday after coming in during the 1st quarter against the Dolphins and leading the Niners to victory. An undersized, unheralded quarterback getting his first-ever pro start against Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers? That story line sounds familiar for some reason. This could get ugly...let’s hope so, anyway. We should all be Bucs fans this week.

Monday

Patriots at Cardinals
Like the Thursday night prime time AFC-NFC matchup, this one has no playoff implications that affect the Commanders. Cheer for whichever team you like better or hate less.

NFC East considerations

Washington has no hope of winning the division, and even the Cowboys’ window of opportunity to repeat as division champs is slowly sliding shut as the Eagles have a 3-game winning streak since their loss to the Commanders.

What’s important for Washington is to finish ahead of the Giants. Washington is unbeaten in their last 4 games, starting with that Week 10 win in Philly. Ron Rivera’s team has to extend that streak to 5 games by beating the Giants in two weeks if they want to maximize their opportunity of making it into the postseason.

With a BYE this week, all we can do is wait, watch and hope for the results we want to see.

Check out DraftKings Sportsbook, the official sportsbook partner of SB Nation.

Tie breaking procedures

Here are the tie-breaking procedures:

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.)

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the three Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

- If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.

- If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.