I have said all along that I would publish the Wild Card Watch as a weekly series for as long as Washington had a reasonable chance of earning a playoff spot. With only one long-shot scenario available to eliminate the Commanders from contention before Week 18, that means that the series will almost certainly continue to the end of the season.

If you aren’t interested in this kind of article, now would be a good time to return to the front page and look for something less optimistic to read.

The thoughts in this article are my own, and do not represent the views of Hogs Haven, its other writers or its managing editor.

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NFC Conference overview

Let’s start with a review of the NFC standings as of today (the outcome of Sunday’s Packers-Dolphins game is relevant to the NFC playoff race, but doesn’t change any of the calculations for Washington’s playoff hopes).

It turns out that Christmas football is popular

The Washington Commanders had a long Christmas wish list, and get nearly everything they asked for. When they looked inside the stocking, it was chock full of Christmas treats:

• They wanted the Seahawks to lose; they did.
• They wanted the Giants to lose; they did.
• They wanted the Lions to lose; they did.

Of course, there was one big box with a giant burgundy colored bow on top that the Commanders hoped would contain the one present they wanted more than any other — a road win against the San Francisco 49ers. Alas, when that box was opened, it was the metaphorical equivalent of getting socks and underwear. The Niners prevailed 37-20.

Thanks to the losses by the three key rivals in the playoff race, Washington still controls its own destiny with two games remaining. The math is simple; win and they’re in — certainly as the 7th seed, and possibly as the 6th seed (if the Giants lose their final two games).

In the chart below, the four divisional leaders are circled in blue, and would be seeded 1 - 4 if the playoffs were set based on today’s standings. Under these seedings, despite their loss to the Cowboys on Saturday afternoon, the Eagles would get the bye for the wildcard round and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Vikings, Niners and Buccaneers would play the 5th thru 7th seeded wildcard teams.

Tie breakers mostly don’t matter for Washington anymore

The tie with the Giants in Week 13 makes things simple for Washington as far as playoff tiebreakers are concerned. Absent another tie before the end of the season, all Washington needs to do to get into the playoffs ahead of any NFC wildcard contender — except for the Giants — is to match that team’s win total. Because of the loss to the Giants in Week 15, the Commanders need to one more win than the Giants to get ahead of them in the playoff seedings.

Based on the standings at the end of Week 15, the Wildcard weekend would see the following matchups:

• Dallas at Tampa Bay
• New York at San Francisco
• Washington at Minnesota

Still in the hunt

With two weeks remaining, there are 5 teams that are currently out of playoff position that have the opportunity to get in front of the Commanders.

• Two teams — the Seahawks and Lions — are currently 7-8. They are circled in Green.
• Two teams — the Panthers and Saints — are currently 6-9. They are circled in purple.
• The Green Bay Packers play at 1pm Sunday, and will either get their 7th win or 9th loss of the season to move into the green or purple group.

Current Competition - projection model

Now that Washington has gone winless in 3 games to fall to 7-7-1, they have to start winning again to hold onto the 7th seed and make the playoffs. Let’s see what the possibilities are for Washington to reach the postseason with two games remaining (home games versus the Browns and Cowboys).

If Washington goes 2-0 to finish the season 9-7-1

It would be impossible for any other team in the NFC to surpass Washington, and the Commanders will be the 7th seed in the NFC playoffs (unless the Giants finish the season with no more than 8 wins; in that case, the Commanders would take over the 6th seed).

If Washington goes 1-1 to finish the season 8-8-1

• If any “green teams” [Seattle or Detroit (currently both 7-8) and possibly Green Bay] were to go undefeated to finish 9-8, that team would knock Washington out of the postseason.
• None of the 6-win “purple teams” [Panthers & Saints and possibly Green Bay] could pass the Commanders.

Washington would retain the 7th seed position in the NFC playoffs if none of the 7-win “green teams” won more than 1 of their remaining games.

If Washington goes 0-2 to finish the season 7-9-1

• If any “green teams” [Seattle or Detroit (currently both 7-8) and possibly Green Bay] were to win a game, that team would knock Washington out of the seedings.
• If any of the 6-win “purple teams” [Panthers & Saints and possibly Green Bay] went undefeated in the final 2 games, that team could pass the Commanders.
• It would be almost impossible for Washington to hold onto the 7th seed if they don’t win another regular season game, and, frankly, they wouldn’t deserve to make the postseason if they finished 0-4-1 in the final 5 games.

Bottom line
In short, Washington can control its own destiny by going 2-0 and finishing as the 7th seed (or 6th seed, based on what happens with the Giants).

If the Commanders finish 1-1, they would still get in as the 7th seed unless either the Lions, Seahawks or Packers finishes the season with a 9-8 record.

If they can’t win 1 of their remaining games, then the chances for a playoff seeding become almost incalculably small.

The Commanders need to help themselves by getting a win against the Browns on Sunday afternoon.

Remaining schedules for Giants, Seahawks, Lions and Packers

New York Giants

• Colts
• at Eagles

Seattle Seahawks

• Jets
• Rams

Detroit Lions

• Bears
• at Packers

Packers

• Vikings
• Lions

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This week’s rooting guide

If you want to know who to root for in this weekend’s games, here’s a handy rooting guide aimed at maximizing Washington’s chances of earning a wildcard seeding, along with some other considerations:

Thursday

Cowboys at Titans
No mystery here. Titan up!! A Dallas loss would eliminate any possibility of the Cowboys winning the division — in effect, locking them in as the 5th seed. The potential advantage of this outcome is that the Cowboys might want to rest starters in their Week 18 game against Washington.

Sunday

Colts at Giants
Jeff Saturday needs to get Nick Foles or his QB du jour to lift Indy to victory on Sunday.

Bears at Lions
Easy call here - we’re all Chicago Bears fans on Sunday!

Jets at Seahawks
Per DraftKings, the Seahawks are currently favored by 1.5 points. I’m counting on Mike White’s return for the Jets this week. Seems like I say it every week, but root for NYJ. J-E-T-S, Jets! Jets! Jets!

Saints at Eagles
There are three issues here:

1. We hate the Eagles and always want them to lose
2. The value of the Saints 2023 first round draft pick traded to the Eagles
3. NFCE Division Champ and Philly’s playoff seeding (they could end up 1, 2 , 3 or 5)

Based on #1, we want the Saints to win.

With respect to #2, Per Tankathon, based on current records, that Saints ==> Eagles pick will be the #10 in the draft. We want the Saints to keep winning to keep reducing the value of that draft pick.

• If Philly ends up with the same record as the Vikings, the Eagles get the higher seeding based on having beaten the Vikings in the regular season.
• The only way the Cowboys tie the Eagles is if Dallas beats Washington in Week 18, which we don’t want to plan for; however, a win by Philly here clinches the division and opens up the possibility that Dallas rests starters.
• There’s also a good chance we’ll be rooting for Philly to beat the Giants in Week 18.

The “Dallas fighting for a division championship” thing isn’t insignificant, but on the whole, I’d say to root for the Saints to upset the Eagles, who are currently favored by 5.5 points. The silver lining of an Eagles victory, if it occurred, would be that it would lock the Cowboys into the 5th seed, giving Dallas nothing to play for in their Week 18 game at FedEx Field.

49ers at Raiders
I don’t know about you, but I’m not keen to play the 49ers in the first week of the playoffs, so I’m happy for them to finish as the #3 seed; that means I don’t want them supplanting the Vikings as the #2. This outweighs my desire for the Raiders to stay ahead of the Saints in the daft order. Root for Las Vegas to upset the Niners, who are currently favored by 4 points.

Vikings at Packers
Two for the price of one. Clearly, we want the Packers to lose. We want the Vikings to hold onto the #2 seed. #SKOL

Jaguars at Texans
The Jags are one of the 7-win teams that could end up picking ahead of the Saints in the draft if they lose both of their remaining games. While the Texans were not a serious threat to win a game a few weeks ago, recent weeks, including Saturday’s victory over the Titans make the current 6-point underdogs a decent bet to challenge the surging Jaguars (3-game win streak) this week. Back the underdog Houston team.

Dolphins at Patriots
Once again, the 7-win Patriots could end up picking ahead of the Saints in the draft. This is pretty thin reasoning, but root for Miami this week.

Cardinals at Falcons
With the Cardinals playing on Sunday, they are currently 4-10 while the Falcons are 5-10. If the Cardinals lose on Christmas Day, then root for Arizona to win in Week 17. If the Cards win on Christmas and both teams enter this game with 5 wins, then root for the Falcons, since they have weaker Strength of Schedule than the Saints, and would pick ahead of New Orleans in the draft based on the tie-breaker; the opposite is true for the Cardinals.

Rams at Chargers
Just to make sure the Rams and Saints don’t end up with the same number of wins (the Rams have tougher Strength of Schedule, so the Saint would move up in the draft order), cheer for the Chargers, who are favored by 8.5 points.

Steelers at Ravens, Broncos at Chiefs
Sit back and enjoy these AFC matchups; root for whomever you like.

Panthers at Buccaneers
This game could decide or help decide the division champion in the NFC South. The considerations here have to do with matchups in the divisional round of the playoffs and with the Saints’ draft position, but I don’t see anything that makes the choice perfectly clear — especially since the Buccaneers have a Christmas day game against the Cardinals that will have an impact as well. At this point, I’d say to just enjoy what should be an interesting NFCS battle on Sunday.

Monday

Bills at Bengals
This looks like it could be one of the games of the year. Sit back and enjoy what looks like a great MNF matchup in which the Commanders have no identifiable rooting interest.

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Tie breaking procedures

Here are the tie-breaking procedures:

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

• Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in common games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.)

• Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in common games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the three Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

- If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.

- If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

• Head-to-head, if applicable.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in conference games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)

Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

• Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in conference games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

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