I intend to publish the Wild Card Watch as a weekly series for as long as Washington has a reasonable chance of earning a playoff spot.

Until the Commanders are eliminated from contention, I’ll keep my eye on the playoff prize and ignore the 2023 draft for as long as there’s a chance at the postseason.

If you aren’t interested in this kind of article, now would be a good time to return to the front page and look for something less optimistic to read.

The thoughts in this article are my own, and do not represent the views of Hogs Haven, its other writers or its managing editor.

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NFC Conference overview

Let’s start with a review of the NFC standings as of today (the outcome of the Rams-Packers game on Monday Night Football won’t change anything relevant to Washington’s playoff hopes).

Right now, Washington remains in playoff position.

The four divisional leaders are circled in blue, and would be seeded 1 - 4 if the playoffs were set based on today’s standings. Under these seedings, the Eagles would get the bye for the wildcard round and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Vikings, Niners and Buccaneers would play the 5th thru 7th seeded wildcard teams.

Tie breakers mostly don’t matter for Washington anymore

The tie with the Giants in Week 13 makes things simple for Washington as far as playoff tiebreakers are concerned. Absent another tie before the end of the season, all Washington needs to do to get into the playoffs ahead of any NFC wildcard contender — except for the Giants — is to match that team’s win total. Because of the loss to the Giants on Sunday Night Football, the Commanders need to have more wins than the Giants to get ahead of them in the playoff seedings.

Based on the standings at the end of Week 15, the Wildcard weekend would see the following matchups:

• Dallas at Tampa Bay
• New York at San Francisco
• Washington at Minnesota

Stick a fork in ‘em

I’ve removed every team from this wildcard analysis except for the Giants, Seahawks & Lions. The NFC South race is no longer relevant to the Commanders since only the division champion will get to the playoffs, and that team will be the #4 seed.

Current Competition - projection model

Now that Washington has lost to the Giants to reach 7-6-1, they have to keep winning to hold onto the 7th seed and make the playoffs. Let’s see what the team’s 3 main rivals for a wildcard seeding need to do to surpass the Commanders in the race to a playoff spot.

If Washington goes 3-0 to finish the season 10-6-1

It would be impossible for any other team in the NFC to surpass Washington, and the Commanders will be the 7th seed in the NFC playoffs (unless the Giants finish the season with no more than 9 wins).

If Washington goes 2-1 to finish the season 9-7-1

• Either Seattle or Detroit (currently both 7-7) could go undefeated to finish 10-7, which would knock Washington out of the seedings.

Washington would retain the 7th seed position in the NFC playoffs if neither of those two teams won more than 2 of their remaining games.

If Washington goes 1-2 to finish the season 8-8-1

If either the Seahawks or Lions finished with 2 or 3 wins in the final 3 games, Washington would be out of the playoffs.

• The only way for the Commanders to hold onto the 7th seed would be for both the Lions and Seahawks to go 1-2 or 0-3 to finish the season.

If Washington goes 0-3 to finish the season 7-9-1

While it would be mathematically possible for the Commanders to reach the postseason, from a practical standpoint, they would not get in and would not deserve to get in.

Bottom line

In short, Washington can control its own destiny by going 3-0 and finishing as either the 6th or 7th seed, based on what happens with the Giants.

If the Commanders finish 2-1, they would still get in as the 7th seed unless either the Seahawks or Lions finishes the season 3-0.

If they can’t win 2 of their final 3 games, then the chances for a playoff seeding look pretty grim.

The Commanders need to help themselves by getting a win against the 49ers on Christmas Eve.

Remaining schedules for Giants, Seahawks and Lions

New York Giants

• at Vikings
• Colts
• at Eagles

Seattle Seahawks

• at Chiefs
• Jets
• Rams

Detroit Lions

• at Panthers
• Bears
• at Packers

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This week’s rooting guide

If you want to know who to root for in this weekend’s games, here’s a handy rooting guide aimed at maximizing Washington’s chances of earning a wildcard seeding:

Thursday

Jaguars at Jets
This AFC matchup has no impact on Washington’s playoff positioning, but the Jaguars, who currently have just 6 wins, can improve their draft position by stacking up more losses. The hope is that they would lose while New Orleans wins, because the Eagles traded for the Saints 1st round pick. J-E-T-S, Jets!

Saturday

Lions at Panthers
#KeepPounding

Saints at Browns
The Eagles have the Saints 1st round pick, so root for New Orleans to win in order to erode the value of that pick. In addition, the Browns have just one more win than the Saints, and could get ahead of them in the draft order if the Saints stack up wins while the Browns stack up losses. Washington can help with that effort when the Commanders host Cleveland in Week 17. #Whodat

Bills at Bears
The Bears (3-11) sit just ahead of the Saints, so we want the Bears to keep losing to make sure the Eagles draft position doesn’t improve.

Falcons at Ravens
The Falcons at 5-9 can improve their draft position relative to the 5-9 Saints if the Falcons keep losing, which can devalue the Philly draft pick from the Saints. Root for the Ravens here.

Seahawks at Chiefs
Practice your tomahawk chop

Giants at Vikings
At this point, I’d rather face the 2nd seeded Vikings in the playoffs than the 3rd seeded 49ers. If Washington makes the playoffs, they most likely do so as the 7th seed. Root for the Vikings to keep them ahead of the 49ers, with the bonus pleasure of seeing the Giants lose.

Eagles at Cowboys
Is there some universe somewhere in which they can both lose this game?

Bengals at Patriots, Texans at Titans, Raiders at Steelers
Sit back and enjoy these AFC matchups; root for whomever you like.

Sunday

Packers at Dolphins
We want the Packers (currently 5-8 before MNF) to lose, hoping they can get ahead of the Saints in draft position.

Buccaneers at Cardinals
Cardinals have one more loss than the Saints. We want Arizona to lose to make sure the Eagles’ draft pick doesn’t get any more valuable.

Broncos at Rams
These two teams sit just ahead of the Saints in the draft order; root for the one with the fewer wins. If the Rams win on Monday Night Football, then root for the Broncos here. If the Rams lose, then the two teams will have identical records, and you an back whichever team you like better.

Monday

Chargers at Colts
The Colts are a half-game behind the Saints in record (so, just ahead of them in the draft order). We want the Colts to lose in order to stay ahead of NO in the draft order, making the Eagles’ pick less valuable. Go Bolts!

NFC East considerations

If Washington had beaten the Giants, then there would have been opportunities to finish as high as 2nd in the NFC East and 5th in playoff seeding. All of that opportunity disappeared when Taylor Heinicke’s 4th down pass to Curtis Samuel hit the grass at FedEx Field on Sunday night. The Commanders are almost certain to finish in last place in the NFC East, yet the division has been so dominant this season that Washington still has a reasonable shot at a playoff seeding in the NFC.

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Tie breaking procedures

Here are the tie-breaking procedures:

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

• Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in common games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.)

• Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in common games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the three Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

- If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.

- If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

• Head-to-head, if applicable.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in conference games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)

Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

• Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in conference games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

Check out DraftKings Sportsbook, the official sportsbook partner of SB Nation.