Commanders Wild Card Watch - Week 15 NFC Playoff Projections

Playoffs!

By Bill-in-Bangkok@billhorgan2005 Dec 12, 2022, 10:13am EST

I intend to publish the Wild Card Watch as a weekly series for as long as Washington has a reasonable chance of earning a playoff spot.

A total of 9 losses on the season by Washington at any point will probably bring the series to an abrupt end.

Until then, I’ll keep my eye on the playoff prize and ignore the 2023 draft for as long as there’s a chance at the postseason.

If you aren’t interested in this kind of article, now would be a good time to return to the front page and look for something less optimistic to read.

The thoughts in this article are my own, and do not represent the views of Hogs Haven, its other writers or its managing editor.

NFC Conference overview

Let’s start with a review of the NFC standings as of today (the outcome of the Patriots-Cardinals game on Monday Night Football won’t change anything relevant to Washington’s playoff hopes).

The four divisional leaders are circled in blue, and would be seeded 1 - 4 if the playoffs were set based on today’s standings. Under these seedings, the Eagles would get the bye for the wildcard round and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while the Vikings, Niners and Buccaneers would play the 5th thru 7th seeded wildcard teams.

Tie breakers mostly don’t matter for Washington anymore

The tie with the Giants last Sunday makes things simple for Washington as far as playoff tiebreakers are concerned. Absent another tie before the end of the season, all Washington needs to do to get into the playoffs ahead of any NFC wildcard contender other than the Giants is to match that team’s win total.

If Washington beats the Giants in their next game (on Sunday Night Football this week), then the same will be true for them as well. A loss to New York on SNF would be detrimental to the Commanders’ chances of making the postseason.

Most readers will be aware that prior to Washington’s bye week, the Commanders were in the 8th position in the NFC standings and “out” of the playoffs for the moment. During the Commanders’ bye week, losses by the Giants and Seahawks catapulted Washington into the 6th seed position.

Based on the standings at the end of Week 14, the Wildcard weekend would see the following matchups:

Dallas at Tampa Bay
Washington at San Francisco
New York at Minnesota

The current seedings don’t matter very much because of the Giants-Commanders game on Sunday night. Absent the unlikely event of another tie, one team will win, further cementing its playoff situation, and the other will lose, making it vulnerable to the Seahawks and Lions, both of whom are still in position to qualify for the postseason with sustained winning.

The sole focus for Washington right now needs to be getting the win on Sunday night.

Stick a fork in ‘em

I’ve removed every team from this wildcard analysis except for the Giants, Seahawks & Lions. The NFC South race is no longer relevant to the Commanders. If the Falcons or Panthers win every remaining game, they can only achieve 9 wins, which means the only way they get in ahead of Washington is if the Commanders go 1-3 to end the season. If that happens, nothing I write in this article will get the burgundy & gold into the postseason.

Current Competition - projection model

I don’t pretend for a moment that I can predict wins & losses for a half-dozen teams over a four-week period, but I think that it’s worth having a model that can be used from week to week to chart a path to the playoffs for the Commanders.

And that’s what you’ll see below — a model that is designed to show, not how the Commanders will fail to make it, but a model that shows what seems to be a reasonable path to the postseason.

The tie with the Giants has made things very simple for Washington. All tie-breaking scenarios have been eliminated except for the New York Giants; with any other NFC wildcard contender, the mission is simple — match or exceed their win total.

Since this series is not about predicting the future, but exploring possibilities, this week I’m looking at what happens if the Lions win out while the Seahawks, Commanders & Giants all go 2-2 overall to finish the season.

Basically, all that happens is that, by winning out, the Lions move into the 6th seed currently held by the Commanders. Washington, New York and Seattle all retain their positions relative to each other, but each moves down one spot in the seeding.

5th seed

The 5th seed would go to the Dallas Cowboys.

6th seed

In this scenario, the Lions would be the only non-division winner in the NFC East besides the Cowboys to reach double digit wins, and they would be awarded the 6th seed.

7th seed

In this scenario, there are three teams with 9 wins apiece; however, by virtue of their tie, the Giants and Commanders would both be a half-game ahead of the Seahawks.

Head-to-head competition - The first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition. In this scenario, I have Washington winning the Week 15 rematch at FedEx Field, giving Washington the advantage and the 7th seed in the NFC, and eliminating the Giants from the postseason.

Given the likely matchups, I wouldn’t necessarily be disappointed to see the Commanders in the 7th seed instead of the 6th if that meant that they would face the Vikings instead of the 49ers; however, there’s a very real possibility of those two teams switching positions by the end of the season. In my win-loss model above, I have SF winning at least 2 more games (to Seattle and Washington). With just one game separating the Vikings and 49ers, the 2nd & 3rd could end up being as fluid as the 6th & 7th seeds as the teams play out the final 4 weeks of the season.

The critical importance of beating the Giants in Week 15

If Washington beats the Giants in Week 15, the result will be a huge upward spike in the odds for postseason play to (in my estimation) better than 70/30. A loss to the Giants would be less than a stake through the heart, but it would give the tie-breaker to New York and make the race to the finish line with the Seahawks & Lions extremely tight. A victory in Week 15 leaves a lot more wiggle room.

As always, Washington’s playoff hopes rely on the team continuing to win, though it’s not necessary for them to go undefeated. Because they lost too many games early in the season, they don’t have much margin for error remaining at this point.

By losing just one time in the past 8 games, the Commanders have put themselves into a good position for the postseason, but nothing comes easy with this team, and their fight to qualify for the playoffs may not be resolved until the final whistle blows in Week 18.

It’s fun to see Washington playing meaningful football in December against a division opponent, and they are guaranteed to be in contention for the playoffs for at least the next two weeks. They can stay in contention by continuing to win, but of course, the outcome of other teams’ games have an impact on the playoff picture as well.

This week’s rooting guide

If you want to know who to root for in this weekend’s games, here’s a handy rooting guide aimed at maximizing Washington’s chances of earning a wildcard seeding:

Thursday

49ers at Seahawks
This is a critical game for the NFC playoff picture. A week ago, with Brock Purdy being asked to step in for the injured Jimmy Garappolo, I was anticipating a 49ers December/January collapse — something I was ready to welcome.

The picture shifted considerably this past Sunday when the Niners demolished the Buccaneers 35-7 and the Panthers beat the Seahawks, simultaneously turning the NFC South in to a 3-horse race and dropping Seattle 2-games behind the Niners.

If I still thought a Niners’ collapse was imminent, then I’d say root for the Seahawks to win, hoping that Seattle would eventually win the division, but I no longer believe that the Niners are doomed. So, the rational decision is to root for San Francisco on Thursday night against their division rivals. If Seattle drops to 7-7 while Washington improves to 8-5-1 (assuming the victory over New York), then Washington would have an effective 2-game lead over Seattle with 3 games to play.

So, root for Brock Purdy on Thursday. His team is currently favored by 3.5 points according to DraftKings.

Saturday

Colts at Vikings
The Vikings can clinch the NFC North with one more win against any team remaining on their schedule, and they’re favored by 5.5 points at the moment. It’s hard to imagine, with the Colts, Giants, Packers and Bears on tap, that they won’t get that needed win, so there’s not much difference between the Vikings winning or losing this game with respect to winning the division, aside from the odds swinging against them by a few percentage points.

The more significant issue is playoff seeding. As mentioned above, with the Vikings & Niners just a game apart, a couple of losses by the Vikings could drop them from the 2nd seed to the 3rd seed.

I think there are too many variables to be able to predict whether Washington will finish as the 6th or 7th seed, so I’m not sure where I want the Vikings & Niners to finish.

With so little certainty, I fall back on the basic rule of thumb — when in doubt, root for the AFC team to win. Root for the Colts on Saturday.

Sunday

Falcons at Saints
There isn’t going to be a wildcard team from the NFC South. The contest here is between the Bucs, Falcons and Panthers for the division championship. Other than a preference in my lizard brain to see Tom Brady finish the season out of the playoffs (just because), I really can’t see any reason to prefer one team over the other.

However...

I do care about the 2023 draft. You might remember a 2022 draft day trade in which the Saints sent their 2023 first-round pick to the Eagles. Per Tankathon, that is currently the #5 pick in the draft. In order to make that the worst-value pick possible for Howie Roseman, we want to see the Saints go on a winning streak to finish the season. DraftKings has the Saints favored at home by 4 points. Let’s root for a New Orleans victory to devalue that draft pick that they sent to Philly back in April.

Steelers at Panthers
The Steelers still have a shot at finishing the season 9-8 and preserving Mike Tomlin’s record of never having had a losing season.

More importantly, the Panthers could conceivably achieve a 9-8 record by winning out. While I don’t think that will be enough to knock Washington out of the playoffs (because I expect the Commanders to get to 9 wins themselves), better safe than sorry, as they say. Root for the Steelers (who are 2.5 point underdogs) to get the win, ensuring a losing season for the Panthers.

Eagles at Bears
The Eagles are favored by 9 points. Of course, they were favored by 8 points against the Commanders and ended up losing by 11.

Cheer on the Bears in the long-standing NFC rivalry. The Eagles are in the playoffs already, but let’s see them go on a losing streak to finish the season, and let it start this Sunday at Soldier Field.

Cowboys at Jaguars
In the Week 14 article, I said to root for the Texans against the Cowboys, which was a no-brainer in my opinion. One guy came “at” me on Twitter.

Look, I am not worried about Dallas playing or resting their starters in Week 18. We play the starters from every other team every week. Nobody in the playoffs will be resting starters. I want to see the Cowboys lose EVERY week. I was rooting hard for the Texans to finish what they started this past Sunday, and I’ll be rooting for the Jaguars, who are 4.5-point underdogs, to build on this week’s success against the Titans by crushing Dallas in Jacksonville this coming Sunday.

Yes, Nate. I want Dallas to play their starters in Week 18. I hope they are 10-6 and fighting to stay relevant in the wildcard race. I’m happy to see Washington beat whoever they want to put on the field.

Lions at Jets
This is an easy call. The Jets are favored by a point at home. We want them to beat the Lions. J-E-T-S, Jets!

Cardinals at Broncos
I can’t come up with a reason to care about this game. Arizona is favored by one point.

Bengals at Buccaneers
I could write a lot about possible scenarios in the NFC South. From a practical standpoint, only the division champ is going to the playoffs from that division. I’m happy to see it stay interesting by seeing Tampa Bay lose, and, as mentioned above, I’d be perfectly happy to see Tom Brady end the regular season without a ticket to the postseason. Go Bengals.

Monday

Rams at Packers
Neither team is going to knock Washington out of the playoffs, but this late in the season, I’d say the default in a game between two NFC teams with losing records would be to cheer for the one with the worse record. The fact that it’s Sean McVay’s Rams against a team led by Aaron Rodgers just makes that decision easier. Root for the visiting Rams, who are currently 7.5-point underdogs, per DraftKings.

NFC East considerations

Washington has finally climbed out of last place in the division by virtue of having a better divisional won-loss record than the Giants. The Commanders can put a bit of an exclamation point on that with a win this Sunday. Washington can’t win the division, though they have a mathematical shot at 2nd place (but not a practical one). The key idea for the Commanders right now is to try to finish the season on a 4-game winning streak and enter the playoffs as one of the hottest teams in the league.

It begins at 8:20 pm on Sunday night at FedEx Field.

Check out DraftKings Sportsbook, the official sportsbook partner of SB Nation.

Tie breaking procedures

Here are the tie-breaking procedures:

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.)

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.
Strength of schedule in all games.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the three Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

- If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.

- If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.