I intend to publish the Wildcard Watch as a weekly series for as long as Washington has a reasonable chance of earning a playoff spot.

A total of 9 losses on the season by Washington at any point will probably bring the series to an abrupt end.

Until then, I’ll keep my eye on the playoff prize and ignore the 2023 draft for as long as there’s a chance at the postseason.

If you aren’t interested in this kind of article, now would be a good time to return to the front page and look for something less optimistic to read.

The thoughts in this article are my own, and do not represent the views of Hogs Haven, its other writers or its managing editor.

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After a 1-4 start, most fans of the NFL, including most Washington Commanders fans, were ready to write off the team’s 2022 season. No one was really talking about the playoffs following Washington’s Week 5 loss to the Titans — a close game against a good team, but 4 straight losses had a lot of people (including me) saying that the Commanders looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL. Fan surveys here on Hogs Haven saw the majority of fans calling for Carson Wentz to be benched and Ron Rivera to be gone.

Two things happened after that, however.

First, the Commanders entered the first of two “soft spots” in the schedule (though not everyone would have called it that before the season began) with games against the Bears, Packers, and Colts. Washington won all three of those games to reach the .500 mark at 4-4.

The second important thing that happened at that time was that Carson Wentz was injured in the first half of the Bears game. He finished the game with a broken finger on his right hand, but had surgery in the days that followed and was placed on IR. Since that time, he has missed 4 games, and it has already been announced that he will miss this week’s game in Houston.

At 4-4, it looked on paper as if the Commanders were in contention for the 7th and final wildcard seed, just a half-game behind the 4-3 San Fransisco 49ers, but there were legitimate criticisms of the idea that the team should be considered to be a playoff candidate. After all, Washington hadn’t beaten a single team with a winning record. They had beaten the Jaguars, Bears, Packers and Colts — none of them playoff contenders. Meanwhile, they had lost to every playoff-contending team they had faced (Eagles, Cowboys and Titans) and one team — the Detroit Lions — that was sporting a 1-6 record.

At that point, heading into Week 9, the Commanders faced a problem and an opportunity — the next two games on the schedule were against the two teams with the best combined record in the NFL. Washington would play the Vikings, who were then 6-1, having lost only to the then-undefeated Eagles, who were the Commanders’ Week 10 opponents.

The problem? Lose both games and the team would not only fall 2 games below .500, but the idea that they couldn’t beat a quality team would be further cemented.

The opportunity? Win both games, and the Commanders would have proven themselves. Win even one, and the team would be at 5-5 with a quality win to show that they could play against the big boys.

As it turned out, the Commanders did well, and had the ball and a 7-point lead with about 8 minutes left in the game against Minnesota before the first of a few crucial errors cost them the game.

This past Monday night, the Commanders went to Philadelphia, stinging from the loss to the Vikings, and looking at the end of any real playoff hopes if they lost to the Eagles for the 2nd time in 2022.

Of course, what actually happened was that the Commanders showed up ready to play, and left Philadelphia with a 32-21 victory that was witnessed by a prime-time Monday night audience who now have a different view of the Washington team.

Suddenly, the Washington Commanders can be seen as a team that can not only qualify for the playoffs, but can compete against higher seeded teams if they get there. Our own Hogs Haven readership was polled this week to find out what they thought about Washington as a legitimate playoff team in 2022.

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Just over half of those who responded said that they do think that Washington is a legitimate playoff team.

With 7 seeds available in the NFC, Washington currently sits in the 8th position, just a half-game behind the 49ers, who have played one less game than the Commanders.

If the Commanders can close the gap and earn the 7th seed, they would play the #2 seed, meaning that they would most likely be facing the Eagles, Vikings or Seahawks in the first round, and I have to believe that the players, coaches and many fans would like Washington’s chances against any of those teams.

It might seem like only “homer” Washington fans could believe in the burgundy & gold or Ron Rivera and his coaching staff at this point, but NFL.com is taking the team seriously. Here’s what the league website had to say this week about Washington, giving both the case for the playoffs and the case against the team qualifying.

Case for postseason: Washington displayed moxie, beating the previously undefeated Eagles on Monday night. Ron Rivera’s club plays tough and has turned the season around after a 1-4 start.

Since Week 6, the Commanders have been in every contest, including a close loss to the AFC South-leading Titans and narrowly falling late to the 8-1 Vikings. Taylor Heinicke’s insertion into the lineup has opened things up for star receiver Terry McLaurin, a difference-maker who can propel a club to postseason heights. In addition, the potential return of Chase Young should help boost a defense that has coalesced in recent weeks.

The Commanders have two winnable games against the Texans and Falcons on deck. Take both, and they’d be sitting at 7-5 with two tilts against the wild-card-leading Giants (who have the most challenging schedule in the NFL down the stretch) sandwiched around a bye. Oh, boy, things could get saucy in D.C. with a hot streak.

Case against postseason: Outside of Monday’s win, there hasn’t been much to get excited about in Washington, as the Commanders had mostly beaten bad teams and lost to contenders. They want to run the ball, but it’s inefficient — at best.

Heinicke is a gunslinger who makes plays but is prone to mistakes that could sink the club. Despite the improved play, it’s still an uphill climb for Washington, particularly if the young secondary struggles down the stretch. The teams currently ahead of the Commanders in the standings are more well-rounded at this point. For a club that lives on the razor’s edge, finding consistency could keep Washington from digging out of the early-season hole completely.

The fact is, the Washington Commanders have probably about a 50/50 shot of getting into the playoffs from where they sit at the moment. The 49ers are slightly better positioned, and the team that would currently qualify for the 6th seed, the Dallas Cowboys, have only one more win than the Commanders, but are 1.5 games ahead in wins & losses and hold the advantage of having beaten Washington back in Week 4.

But Washington has some advantages.

• The Commanders will play the 49ers in Week 16; the winner of that game will create an effective 2-game swing in the standings by adding a win while inflicting a loss, creating the advantage in head-to-head tiebreaker, and improving the conference record, which is critical as a tiebreaker between 3 or more teams.
• While not many people are thinking of the Cowboys as competition for the wildcard spot, by the time Washington’s Week 18 against Dallas rolls around, it could be very important. It’s not inconceivable that the Commanders and Cowboys finish with the same number of wins, but also, with Dallas being an NFC team, the conference record tie-breaker may come into play with other teams.
• The Falcons currently sit a game behind Washington in the race for a playoff seeding. The Falcons play the Bears this Sunday — a game they will likely win. The following week, Washington will host Atlanta in a game that will be critical to both teams’ playoff hopes. As with the 49ers, a win against the Falcons would create a cushion in the overall record, and help Washington with two key tiebreakers.
• The Commanders have already beaten the Packers, who are another 4-win team with an outside shot at the playoffs (though their chances took a big hit with the Thursday night loss to the Titans).

In short, Washington can, if it wins more than it loses over the remaining 7 games of its schedule, find itself poised for the playoffs.

For most of the season, I’ve believed that the 7th seeded team would make the playoffs with 8 or 9 wins. After looking more closely at the teams who are in a position to get that final playoff berth, I now think it will take either 9 or 10 wins to qualify, which means that Washington will need to go either 4-3 or 5-2 down the stretch to make it into the postseason.

The Commanders path to the playoffs

You may have noticed that Hogs Haven contributing writers have been making picks each week all season. Whether it’s been just picking winners or picking against the spread, I’ve generally been able to successfully predict just a game or two above .500 on a weekly basis.

I don’t pretend for a moment that I can predict wins & losses for a half-dozen teams over a two-month period, but I think that it’s worth having a model that can be used from week to week to chart a path to the playoffs for the Commanders.

And that’s what you’ll see below — a model that is designed to show, not how the Commanders will fail to make it, but a model that shows what seems to be a reasonable path to the postseason.

That means that when I predict a win or loss in the chart below, the general consideration if the game is anything close to a 50-50 call, is which outcome will most likely to see the Commanders get to the playoffs. So, for example, the one absolute in my projections below is that the Commanders will win against the 49ers since a loss in that game is the single worst possible blow to Washington’s chances of getting the 7th seed.

In general, I have tended towards conference rivals splitting the two games that they play in a season.

To make a point, however, in Scenario A I have projected the Commanders to lose their Week 18 game against the Cowboys, even though that will result in a season sweep by Dallas.

Scenario A

In this scenario, TWO teams out of the 6 shown will qualify for the playoffs.

In Scenario A, the Cowboys finish with a 12-5 record, and earn the #6 seed in the playoffs.

You’ll see that this scenario has the Commanders winning 5 of their remaining 7 games to finish 10-7. It also has the Niners and Cardinals finishing the season with the same record, that is, 10-7.

To determine who would get the 7th seed, tie-breaking procedures would be applied.

The first 3-team tie-breaker (Scenario A)

The first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition, but since the Cardinals and Commanders do not play each other this season, it does not apply.

The second 3-team tie-breaker (Scenario A)

The second tie-breaker is conference record. In Scenario A, the Niners would qualify for the playoffs by virtue of a 7-5 record vs. 6-6 for both the Commanders and Cardinals.

Despite having beaten the 49ers in this scenario, Washington would fail to secure a playoff seeding.

Scenario B

In this scenario, I will change only one set of outcomes. Washington will lose to the Browns in Week 17, but follow up with a victory in Week 18. Thus, the same 3-way tie will occur between Washington, San Fran and Arizona, but the conference record for the Commanders will be different.

Despite the extra loss, the Cowboys will still make the playoffs as the #6 seed with an 11-6 record.

This time, however, when we apply the tie-breaking procedures, we get a different result.

The first 3-team tie-breaker (Scenario B)

The first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition, but, as was true with Scenario A, since the Cardinals and Commanders do not play each other this season, it does not apply.

The second 3-team tie-breaker (Scenario A)

The second tie-breaker is conference record. In Scenario B, the Cardinals, who have a 6-6 record would be eliminated, while the Niners & Commanders, who each have 7-5 records, would move to a 2-team tie breaker.

The first 2-team tie-breaker (Scenario B)

The first 2-team tie breaker is head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs). Washington has the advantage here due to getting the Week 16 win against SF.

Under Scenario B, Washington eliminates the Cardinals due to a superior conference record, then eliminates the Niners on head-to-head competition, and earns the 7th seed.

Impossible to predict

Clearly, with the number of moving parts, it’s impossible to predict from our position here in Week 11 which teams will qualify for the playoffs, much less what the seedings will be. I’ve tried to illustrate how a simple change like beating the Cowboys instead of the Browns can have a dramatic effect on the outcome.

However, what we do know is that the Commanders still have a chance to make the playoffs if they play well and win more games than they lose during the rest of the season. At this point, there’s no need to concern ourselves with the division title; this is only an exercise in earning a wildcard spot. For this reason, what happens to the Eagles is of little importance, and, aside from the Giants imploding down the stretch, they are only a factor because of their two games against Washington in Weeks 13 & 15.

For the most part, the wildcard watch is focused outside the division, and is primarily concerned with two other teams that remain on the Commanders’ schedule — the Falcons and 49ers.

Week by week, as results of games become known and the number of future possibilities diminishes, we can use the model with greater and greater certainty. For now, it is only a model designed to discuss possibilities, and to identify what the Commanders probably need to accomplish to reach the postseason as a wildcard team.

It starts with a win in Houston

Two weeks ago, it was clear that the Commanders needed to win one or both of their games against the Vikings and Eagles to keep playoff hopes alive. At this point, Washington has reached what appears to be its second “soft spot” in the schedule. It seems as if the team needs to extend it’s current 1-game win streak to 3 games by beating the Texans in Houston this week, followed by a victory against the Falcons at FedEx in Week 12. While a loss to the AFC South Texans would not eliminate the Commanders from contention for a wildcard spot, it would certainly put a lot of pressure on the team to win nearly all of the remaining games after that, and would raise a lot of doubts about a team that would elevate Houston to a 2-win team at this point in the season.

Washington is favored on the road, and they need to bring their best game against an opponent that they typically only play once every 4 years.

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Tie breaking procedures

Here are the tie-breaking procedures:

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

• Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in common games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.)

• Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in common games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss

To Break A Tie For The Wild-Card Team

If it is necessary to break ties to determine the three Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

- If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tiebreaker.

- If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs

• Head-to-head, if applicable.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in conference games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 2 of three-club format.)

Apply division tiebreaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tiebreaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.

• Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
• Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
• Strength of victory in all games.
• Strength of schedule in all games.
• Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
• Best net points in conference games.
• Best net points in all games.
• Best net touchdowns in all games.
• Coin toss