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KS4GM’s 2021 Real Time Draft Analysis: Day 1, Take 2

NFL Draft Experience Media Preview Photo by Duane Prokop/Getty Images

You’ve read the player profiles, you’ve read the mock drafts (so many mock drafts), you’ve even memorized the Draft Commandments. It’s hard to imagine it, but we’re mere minutes from the kick off of the 2021 NFL Draft. Finally!

Now, we get to spend the next 3 days analyzing, dissecting, and hopefully, in the case of the Washington Football Team, celebrating the decisions throughout the draft. This article will provide a running, real time commentary on the draft, with a particular eye on the questionable (or inspired!) moves by each of the franchises. I look forward to discussing them with you in the comments.

Analysis will primarily be done through the lens of my Draft Commandments, laid out over the course of the past week. More details can be found at the links below:

Draft Commandments, Volume 1

I. Thou shalt not draft offensive skill positions (other than QB) in the first round.

II. Thou shalt always be looking to accumulate more picks, particularly on Day 2.

Draft Commandments, Volume 2

III. Thou shalt attempt to draft the best player available.

IV. Thou shalt not draft (primarily) for need.

Draft Commandments, Volume 3

V. Thou shalt build trust relationships with other franchises.

VI. Thou shalt draft with the future in mind

Editorial note: Finally, I’d like to thank MysteryWryter for inspiring the idea for this piece.

Team needs taken from The Draft Network.

Day 1:

Pick 1: Jacksonville Jaguars

Needs: QB, OT, WR, S

In likely the least suspenseful move of the night, the Jags take Trevor Lawrence, the near-consensus best player in the draft. This is a clear “best player available” (BPA) at a position of need.

Pick 2: New York Jets

Needs: QB

The Jets, on the heels of having traded Sam Darnold, draft Zach Wilson, arguably the second best QB in the draft. Having moved Darnold, this too is a BPA at a position of need move. The potential objection is to the moving of Darnold earlier. At this position, the Jets likely could have reaped a huge draft haul to move the second pick, like the Dolphins did for pick 3.

Pick 3: San Francisco 49ers (trade up)

Needs: QB

I struggled with including “Thou shalt not trade up in the first round” as an addition commandment. I ultimately didn’t, but I have strong opposition to it. I think this was an unwise move by the 49ers to move up to gamble on their QB of the future. Taking Trey Lance here, the 49ers are, in the minds of many, taking a serious project QB and drafting for need, while at the same time, sacrificing substantial draft capital. This is an enormous, career-defining, gamble for Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch.

This likely means Jimmy G. will need to stay with the team for at least another year.

Pick 4: Atlanta

Needs: TE

The Falcons select tight end Kyle Pitts who is generally considered the best player available at a position of need.

Pick 5: Cincinnati

Needs: WR, OT

The Bengals make, to my mind, a highly questionable pick here, selecting wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase over tackle Penei Sewell (or Rashawn Slater). Both players were among the highest rated players still left on the board, but only one could have been protecting Joe Burrow’s blindside. Chase appears to be an incredible talent, but one wonders if Burrow will have the time to get him the ball. I think they will regret this pick.

Pick 6: Miami

Needs: WR

The Dolphins select one of the top players on the board, wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, at a position of need. Taking a tackle here would have probably been the most responsible choice, by the Dolphins have another first round pick to potentially pursue it.

The third straight violation of the first commandment.

Pick 7: Detroit

Needs: WR, CB, OT

The Lions take tackle Penei Sewell, a very smart move. Top talent at a position of need. Boring, but smart move.

Pick 8: Carolina

Needs: CB, OT

The Panthers select cornerback Jaycee Horn, continuing their streak of picking defensive players in the draft. Horn is considered the best CB in the draft - a position of need - but likely not the BPA here.

Pick 9: Denver

Needs: LB, CB, QB

The Broncos take cornerback Patrick Surtain, one of the top players on the board at a position of need. If he didn’t go here, he was likely going next, to the Cowboys.

Pick 10: Eagles (trade with Dallas)

Needs: WR, TE, CB, S

The Eagles move up to pick wide receiver Devonta Smith, violating the first commandment, trading up to do so, and taking a WR who is one of the slightest players ever to be taken this high in the draft. I suspect this could end up being the third year in a row the Eagles draft a WR that busts.

Pick 11: Bears (trade with Giants)

Needs: OT, WR, QB, CB

The Bears move up to select quarterback Justin Fields, the best player left on the board at a position of need. They gave up significant draft resources to get him, but this is the kind of player that teams trade up for.

Pick 12: Dallas (trade with Eagles)

Needs: CB, OT, EDGE, TE

I hate to say it, but the Cowboys make arguably the best pick of the draft so far here. They pick up an extra 3rd with a trade back, and grab linebacker Micah Parsons, arguably the best defensive player left on the board.

Pick 13: Chargers

Needs: OT, EDGE, S, CB

The Chargers take tackle Rashawn Slater, the best player left on the board at at position of need. They get a great value here.

Pick 14: Jets (trade with Vikings)

Needs: CB, EDGE, RB, WR, OT

The Jets trade up to guard Alijah Vera-Tucker, the best player left on the board at a position of need. Smart move to grab protection for Zach Wilson, though it did require giving up some draft capital.

Pick 15: Patriots

Needs: QB, LB, WR

The Patriots stay patient and get their quarterback, Mac Jones, at their original spot. QB is a huge position of need for the Pats, and Jones is likely the best QB left on the board. Some might consider this a bit of a reach, but Jones likely wouldn’t last to the next New England pick. It works out great for them.

Pick 16: Cardinals

Needs: CB, LB, IOL, WR

The Cardinals select linebacker, Zaven Collins, who could potentially be considered a bit of a reach here at a position of need.

Pick 17: Raiders

Needs: IDL, OT, LB

Pick 18: Dolphins

Needs: WR (EDGE, RB, LB, WR, S)

Pick 19: Washington

Needs: LB, OT

Pick 20: Giants (trade with Bears)

Needs: WR, LB, EDGE

Pick 21: Colts

Needs: OT, CB, WR

Pick 22: Titans

Needs: CB, WR, OT

Pick 23: Vikings (trade with Jets)

Needs: IOL, EDGE, OT

Pick 24: Steelers

Needs: CB, OT, IOL, RB

Pick 25: Jaguars

Needs: QB, OT, WR, S

Pick 26: Browns

Needs: IDL, WR, EDGE, CB

Pick 27: Ravens

Needs: EDGE, OT, S, WR

Pick 28: Saints

Needs: CB, WR, EDGE, LB

Pick 29: Packers

Needs: OT, WR, CB, IDL, LB

Pick 30: Bills

Needs: RB, CB, EDGE, WR

Pick 31: Ravens

Needs: EDGE, OT, S, WR

Pick 32: Bucs

Needs: WR, EDGE