FanPost

QB rankings for the 2021 NFL draft

The quarterback position is the hardest position to draft in any sport.

I have tried the last few seasons to predict future success. I have had some good predictions and major whiffs.

Last season, I was fairly accurate. Scouts extremely blew it in its evaluation of Justin Herbert. The Oregon product had optimum size, a great arm, good athletic ability, and played well at Oregon. So scouts favored Tua with a popgun left arm and arthritic hip? Huh. Now, Tua has some intangibles and may become good on a good Miami team. But never see Tua being better than Herbert.

The 2019 QB draft is looking like one of the worst in years. I was right about Kyler Murray and the scouts were right to have him No. 1. Murray and Herbert seem like the best of the recent QB crop. I never really loved Haskins but liked him. Oh, was I wrong. Daniel Jones is what I thought he would be. A decent B to B- QB nothing special. I really liked Will Grier and he may be lucky to be in the league.

I majorly whiffed on the 2018 QBs. I really liked Josh Rosen. I thought Josh Allen could be a bust. Allen was on his way to being a bust in his first 1-2 seasons. But he is the epitome of letting a QB develop. I liked Lamar Jackson's potential but did not see him being the best of this bunch. I did predict Darnold not being as good after watching him at USC. I liked Baker Mayfield but did not see a Pro Bowler. He has become a decent starter.

Everybody seems to have strategy in drafting QBs. Bill Parcells has a good formula based on stats. Feel like this is a good starting point. But in today's game, it is hard to get a QB who started 2-3 years in college.

Chris Simms seems to be very good at predicting NFL QB success. Never really learned his exact formula. But Simms really loves Zach Wilson the best so we may need to pay attention.

My formula is simple. I look for 3 factors (assuming he has an NFL caliber arm):

1. Decision making
2. Accuracy
3. Clutch under pressure

See I did not mention arm strength and athleticism. Now, an NFL QB needs at least average starting level arm strength. But I have seen too many busts with great arms e.g. JaMarcus Russell, Haskins, Jeff George, Ryan Leaf. You need more. Also have seen many great QBs with not great arm strength like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, etc.

Athleticism is nice. Believe athletic QBs make bad teams better. But they do not necessarily make good teams great. Seems like there is a fascination with running QBs. Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick can make bad very good. But titles? But they work until they don't. Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson have elite arms and use their athleticism to make better throws.

That being said. Here are my QB rankings for the 2021 draft:

Tier 1

1. Trevor Lawrence. Not much to be said here. Don't overthink it just like with Herbert. Checks all the boxes. Not sure if he will be better than recent QBs like Herbert and Murray. But barring health, almost no chance he is not good.

Tier 2

2. Trey Lance. Trey-day just passes the eyeball test. Maybe it has something to do with his lesser FCS competition. But dominating at any level is hard. Also like how he has gotten better. Just like Terry McLaurin, he was not a finished product coming out of college. Let Lance sit for 1-2 years, then let him shine.

3. Zach Wilson. Really did not love him prior to the process. But Simms ranks him the No. 1 prospect even ahead of Trevor. Not sure about that. But he has got flair and makes crazy arm angle throws. Certainly looks better than Baker Mayfield and Baker has becoming a decent starter.

Tier 3

4. Kyle Trask. He has been all over the place among draft rankings. Some have him just outside of the top 5 and others maybe outside of the top 10. He is slow footed. But probably with lesser WRs, Trask put up similar numbers to Mac Jones. I see at least a great backup.

5. Kellen Mond. Really fits the Parcells test. Has a lot of experience and seems clutch. Also, Simms has him No. 4 so not going to quibble.

6. Justin Fields. Really was going to put him as Best of the Rest. Ohio St. QBs tend to stink in the NFL e.g. Haskins, Troy Smith, etc. But based on the eyeball test, he is right there with Lance and Wilson. But he struggled against some mediocre Big 10 teams.

Best of the Rest:
Davis Mills
K.J. Costello
Brady Davis
Mac Jones. I may be missing something here. But nothing jumps out about him. Also Alabama QBs do not tend to be great in the pros.

Feel like the WFT should take a flyer on a QB in the later rounds. So that probably means someone like Trask or Mond. But if they can get Lance somehow and let him sit for 1-2 seasons, then that would be great.

Still, the WFT will eventually need a longterm QB. May be this year.