FanPost

Trade back to trade up later

There's plenty of chatter going on about the potential of trading back for a haul of draft picks instead of drafting Chase Young. Most seem to want a huge volume of selections to fill all of the "holes" on this roster. I completely disagree with that stance.

My disagreement is due to two major reasons. 1) Chase Young has potential generational talent. He has the ceiling to be the best player in the league. That type of talent has a ripple effect that far outweighs the value of filling multiple holes with above average players. 2) Anyone paying attention to how the offseason unfolded should realize that the Skins really don't have much roster space to draft a large volume of players.

The FO approach this offseason has been to resolve our depth issues by signing a high volume of low cost, analytically promising players to compete. This has led to a packed roster without much dead weight. The team won't acquire a bunch of draft picks to cut guys they just signed. And don't expect players like Christian and Apke to get cut because they are only half way through their rookie deals and selected within the top 5 rounds by this FO that was kept intact. By my count, there are only 5 available roster spots without cannibalizing promising players. Unfortunately, 3 of those 5 spots are in need of starters (LT, WR, TE).

That said, all of this leads me to believe that drafting a guy like Chase as the lead dog makes the most sense. UNLESS the front office decides to be aggressive in using a trade back as a mechanism to acquire TWO BLUE CHIP players. Most of the talk has been about a deal with Miam for 5 and 18. Other viable trade partners are Jacksonville with 9 and 20 or Oakland with 12 and 19. I'd also expect the Skins to target a high 2021 pick to be included in any package as well to make the deal worthwhile.

My issue with these trade backs is the picks 18-20 likely put us just outside of the range for landing the most elite players in this draft and particularly, those that fill a major need. In that range, our best bet is to hope that Josh Jones (widely considered well below the top 4 OTs) is still on the board. The three special WRs will be gone. Even CJ Henderson at CB will likely be gone. We'd be looking at either LB or S for proper value and those are the areas where our FO put all of their FA resources. In the 18-20 range, we'd likely end up reaching for a Tier 2 guy.

BUT...if the Skins decided to move forward with trading Trent Williams, they could receive 2nd round value by trading him along with the later pick acquired in a trade back to move up to 10 or 11. While Cleveland and the New York Jets have not shown a willingness to part with a 2nd round pick, they may be open to moving back knowing that they'll get a Pro Bowl caliber LT while keeping the same volume of picks.

NOW THIS IS THE VALUE THAT IS WORTH PASSING ON CHASE YOUNG!!! If we can pull off the Dolphins trade, then we can draft Simmons or Okudah at 5. That still might require us to cut a talented LB, but for Isaiah Simmons, that guy can kick rocks. But the real exciting piece is that this maneuver gets us 1 or 2 picks in the 9-12 range. And that range is where the Skins should have their choice between 5-6 elite WRs and OTs. Two Pro Bowl caliber players is the only path that makes sense for passing on a generational talent like Chase IMO.

#5: Isaiah Simmons, Jeff Okudah

#9-12: Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Andrew Thomas, Mekhi Becton

Imagine coming away with Andrew Thomas and Jerry Jeudy plus a 2021 1st. Or Simmons and CeeDee Lamb plus a 2021 2nd.

P.S. Due to our limited number of roster spots, I'd also consider moving up from #66 to target our TE. With only 5 open spots, we should get the most talented guys as candidates for those 3 starting roles. If possible, trade 66 and 108 to move up into the 2nd to draft Cole Kmet. It could be huge for Dwayne's development to potentially land him such talented prospects at LT, WR, and TE.