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The odds for Lawrence/Fields to be a Redskin

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The battle for Lawrence and Fields

This is my first post and been a long time fan of this site and every year at this time I just get sucked into the minutia of the draft.

The point of this post is to figure out who will likely be our competition for Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields, considered by everyone to be the top Quarterback prospects for the 2021 draft. If we are not in competition next year for this pick then that means Haskins has stepped up his game and/or our record is much better the Vegas thinks which would be both great things and something to root for.

I will be looking at every team and figuring out A) Do they need a Quarterback and B) is there a realistic scenario where their record will be worse then the Skins (injuries not withstanding).

After each team I would give the odds of drafting a QB and trading up or back to increase the odds of the Skins not getting one of the two quarterbacks.

These numbers by the way are not scientific by any measure…just what’s in my head.

AFC East

1) Buffalo Bills

A) Josh Allen was drafted in 2018 and still has three years left on his rookie deal and really improved his game this past year and Buffalo seems to be thrilled to have him

B) With Tom Brady now in Tampa Bay most have the Bills as the favorite to win the Division.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 0%

2) NY Jests

A) The Jets have a similar situation to the Bills as their young QB Sam Darnold has steadily improved and they appear to be all in on him. Has three years left on his rookie deal.

B) Again, the division appears to be more open then ever so their record should be a couple wins north or south of .500.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 0%

3) Miami Dolphins

A) Just drafted Tua so enough said but its certainly possible that Tua injures himself (again) and the dolphins realize what they have and desperately need to draft another QB.

B) Their record will likely rival ours and would possibly force us to be in a trade up scenario.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 2%

Chances of trading back – 65%

4) New England Patriots

A) Tom Brady is gone and Belichick has decided to not waste money on a FA QB or draft capital for that matter. They need a QB and could be one of the Skins main completion.

B) As long as Belichick is the coach I cant imagine then being near the bottom tier of NFL teams but two things scare me. 1) Bill is smart enough to tank and two, if they finish with 6 to 8 wins then that is close enough to trade up and grab a QB and you know they always stock pile picks to do so.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 10%

Chances of trading up – 20%

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

A) Lamar Jackson has three years left on his rookie deal and is the reigning MVP

B) Ravens will be the heavy favorites to win the division so no need to get cute with this one

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 0%

Pittsburgh Steelers

A) Big Ben is aging and his body is breaking down plus the realization that their backups offer very little in replacing Ben at least long term.

B) Mike Tomlin doesn’t remind me of a coach that would tank and that division always seems to be closer at the end of the year then we think. I do think its possible they will be close enough to trade up and pick one of the two QBs.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 8%

Chances of trading up – 15%

Cleveland Browns

A) Baker Mayfield is another QB that has three years left on his rookie deal and while he did regress a bit last year their appears to be no urgency to look for his replacement as of yet but that could change after another bad year.

B) The Browns roster up and down is full of talent but they never seem to figure it out but their losses should not rival the Skins.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 3%

Chances of trading up – 5%

Cincinnati Bengals

A) Just drafted Joe Burrow and even if he stinks it up they still would be patient with him.

B) This will likely be one of rivals as far as loss totals and while they will not draft a QB, they would be in a position to trade back and pose a serous risk to the Skins getting a top QB.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading back – 60%

AFC South

Houston Texans

A) Deshaun Watson is the real deal and he is unlikely to be replaced anytime soon.

B) Bill Obrien isn’t that smartest guy in the room so they don’t have a 1st round draft pick in 2021.

Chances of draft a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 0%

Tennessee Titans

A) Ryan Tanehill just singed a huge contract and they will be stuck with that for awhile…like it or not.

B) Titans could have easily gone to the SB last year if a couple of plays went there way and they are a very well coached team and will be good for years to come

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 0%

Indianapolis Colts

A) They just signed Phillip Rivers to a I year deal so that has no bearing on the 2021 draft. They also have Brissett who did not play well last year and they took a flyer on Eason but the later two QBs have no bearing on next year’s draft and they would love to take a franchise QB if given the chance.

B) They have a talented roster with a great Offensive Line to protect Rivers so there is no realistic threat from the Colts to match our losses but the Colts could potentially move up in the draft.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of Trading up – 15%

Jacksonville Jaguars

A) They have Gardner Minshew and he played well at times last year but they didn’t really invest any draft capitol in him so there is no reason to think they wouldn’t draft a QB at the top if given the chance.

B) This is the Skins #1 threat in drafting one of the two QBs at the top…they will tank and they will have the roster to do so.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 65%

Chances of trading up (have 2 first round picks) – 85%

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

A) Just no

B) KC is the best team in the league and in a win now mode

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 0%

Denver Broncos

A) Drew Lock will be entering his second year and Denver appears to believe in him as he played well at times last year. They also surrounded him with crazy talent in the 2020 draft.

B) Denver has a talented roster and while they underperformed last year I think their win total will improve and pose little threat to the Skins.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 3%

Las Vegas Raiders

A) I think Gruden believes in Derek Carr but if he doesn’t prove it this year then he will likely be replaced next year.

B) The Raiders overachieved a bit last year winning 7 games in a tough division but I just don’t think that roster is complete, but good enough for at least 5 wins. Gruden has been known to do crazy things on draft day and I think its possible if he likes a certain person then he would do what it takes to move up and get him

Chances of drafting a QB early – 3%

Chances of trading up – 18%

Los Angles Chargers

A) They just drafted Justin Herbert and they will certainly give him time to figure it out.

B) They will be a bad team with a tough schedule and that means their losses could mount and possibly push us down the draft board.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading back – 30%

NFC

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

A) Carson Wentz is a top 5 QB when healthy…but the problem is he seems to be unable to protect himself from all the punishment that he takes week in and week out. They just drafted Jalen Hurtz and used a 2 round draft pick on him, which tells you they believe in him.

B) Why the Eagles do not have a complete roster they should still be around a .500 team at worst which would be enough to push them out of the race for one of the top QBs.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 5%

Dallas Cowboys

A) This is an interesting one since Dak Prescott is currently franchised and needs a new deal…a deal that may never happen since his demands are approaching 40 million a year. It’s possible that Jerry may need a new QB in 2021 and is the kind of dude who would go all in to get that player.

B) Dallas is in the same boat as Phily is…not a perfect roster by any stretch but should stay north of 8 wins.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 8%

NY Giants

A) Daniel Jones is in his 2nd year and they certainly believe in his skillset and would unlikely draft a QB just after his 2nd year.

B) They are gonna be bottom feeders just like the Skins are…south of 6 wins and in the chase for one of the top draft picks.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 5%

Chances of trading back – 50%

NFC North

Green Bay Packers

A) We all are now familiar with the Pak taking Jordon Love in the first round and of course Aaron Rodgers is on the roster so enough said.

B) With Rogers at QB, the team will be .500 at worst so no threat here.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 0%

Minnesota Vikings

A) Our boy Kirk is still at the helm and just signed a new three-year deal that pushes out till 2022 so minimal threat here.

B) The Vikings have the most complete roster in the division and should be around 9 or 10 wins.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 0%

Chicago Bears

A) They just picked up Nick Foles and appear to be in a win now mode which is why Trubisky is benched but neither QB is a long term solution so they would be interested in a new QB if given the opportunity.

B) They finished 8-8 last year with bad quarterback play and there is no reason to think that things would be worse especially considering the defense they have.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 7%

Detroit Lions

A) Matt Stafford is likely playing his last year as a Lion and they have no QB other then a replacement level player.

B) This team scares me as they have no future QB and their record will be south of 5 wins. But it is possible that Stafford can turn it back on and get them near 7 wins.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 50%

Chances of trading up – 50%

NFC South

New Orleans Saints

A) Drew Brees may very well be retiring soon and Taysom Hill maybe his replacement but he is not your traditional QB.

B) Solid roster and pose no threat to dip below 8 wins

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up- 0%

Atlanta Falcons

A) Matt Ryan can still sling it but it maybe time to change the face of the franchise. Two down years in a row after a near Super Bowl win might cause them to panic.

B) I cant image them being south of 6 wins but that division will have two top teams in TB and the New Orleans and that could be 4 loses just in those games.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 7%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A) Tom Brady signed a 2-year deal fully guaranteed but there is no future back up on that roster.

B) That roster is stacked and many believe they could push for the NFC Championship.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 2%

Carolina Panthers

A) Teddy Bridgewater just signed a three-year deal with Carolina for 63 million…not chump change but not enough to persuade them not to draft a top QB.

B) This team scares me as well…the roster is full of holes and they will be lucky if they can get 4 wins. Maybe the Skins #1 threat.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 55%

Chances of trading up – 50%

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers

A) Jimmy G is at the helm and Kyle believes in him.

B) Will likely push for the NFC Championship…zero threat

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up - 0%

Seattle Seahawks

A) Russell Wilson will be a Seahawk until he retires…no threat

B) Always at or above 10 wins…no factor

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading up – 0%

Los Angeles Rams

A) Jared Goff is not a complete QB but Sean can get the best of him.

B) No first round draft pick

Chances of needing a QB – 0%

Chances of trading up – 0%

Arizona Cardinals

A) Kyler Murray has 4 years left on his rookie deal and is a very dynamic player but they did take a QB 1st overall last year with a young 1st rounder already on the roster so who knows with this team but highly unlikely.

B) This team has flaws but believe they should be around a 5 or 6 win team again this year.

Chances of drafting a QB early – 0%

Chances of trading back – 18%

The NFL changes every single year so we really have very little idea who is going to be good or bad but we usually have an idea who is real good and who is real bad. Hope that makes sense but probably not. Its possible another QB could come out of nowhere like Burrow and be the # 1 pick but its just a post to give you and idea who to root for besides the Skins. I believe there are 4 teams that pose series risk.

1) Jax – need a QB and have 2 # 1 draft picks next year so even if they don’t have either of the top 2 picks then they can trade up…ammo we dot have.

2) Carolina – need a QB and is going to be another bad team

3) Detroit – will likely need a QB and yes…they will be bad

4) Miami – they have TUA but will be in a position to trade back.

Just a few ideas and let me know your thoughts and where I went wrong.