I've been trying to consider what the realistic improvements are for next year. We can all have lofty goals, and recently I've seen comments that just scratch the realm of self-fulfilling disappointment. I actually heard some people call in on Grant/Danny that they expect the following, or FAILURE:
- Playoff Win by year 2, or
- 2020 Division Championship
I believe a realistic goal should be a greater than .500 in 2 of the next 3 years, with a playoff appearance in that time span. That's better than trending the right direction. It's the lower end of desired expectations, and given the Redskins' track record: A Huge Improvement.
But what should we expect next year? First we need to see where we are.
Where are we now?
In the last 5 seasons we've consistently trended down, compiling a 34-45-1 (.425) record and deteriorating points differential.
2015: 9-7, PF: 388, PA: 379, PD: 9
2016: 8-7-1, PF: 396, PA: 383, PD: 13
2017: 7-9, PF: 342, PA: 388, PD: -46
2018: 7-9, PF: 281, PA: 359, PD: -78
2019: 3-13, PF: 266, PA: 435, PD: -169
In 2015 - 2017 we maintained a 21-24 PF/G average, and had we done that this year, we could have won 3 additional games (9-0 vs 49ers, 19-9 vs Vikings, & 20-15 vs Packers). It still would have been trending down (6-10) and we needed to axe Gruden and especially Manusky, but at the very least we'd have won a few more games. For data-based Manusky reasoning:
2017 WAS/Manusky: Yds - #21, Pts - #27, TkA - #12
2018 WAS/Manusky: Yds - #17, Pts - #15, TkA - #10
2019 WAS/Manusky: Yds - #27, Pts - #27, TkA - #15
We regularly gave up 24+ PA/G in the Manusky era. So ~19 PF/G ('17-'18 with Gruden/Manusky combo) and consistent 24 PA/G means the best case scenario is a less than .500 season with this combo. Trending down, indeed.
What should we expect?
"That’s a huge thing for me. Trying to get these quarterbacks comfortable early in the game," O’Connell said. "Getting those guys in a rhythm is very important in this league even for a Hall of Fame quarterbacks. I’ve talked to guys that call plays for them and they say, ‘Rhythm and comfort, and trust that (A) We’ll protect him, (B) get him into a rhythm and (C) We’ll give him opportunities to make plays in the game without it all being on his plate."
While Callahan’s run-heavy philosophy still dominates the Redskins offense, O’Connell has shown a few glimpses of what his offense might look like should he be given full control. For the rest of this season, he’ll likely be stuck calling Callahan’s version of Gruden’s system, with a few of his ideas thrown in here and there. But his philosophy is clear, using the quick game to get the quarterback settled before exploiting match-ups by formation and alignment. It’s a mix of the west coast offense and Gruden’s influence along with some of the influence from his time with Tom Brady and the Patriots. While O’Connell might lack experience, it’s a system that could suit Haskins and that could give O’Connell an advantage when the Redskins look to hire their next head coach.
Realistic Goals?
If we want to look at this realistically, we need to see either the offense or defense as the improvement, and then hedge with no improvement on the other side. If improvements can be made to either side, and the other repeating similar mistakes, we're looking at a 3-4 game bump in 2020. Therefore a 6-10 Season in 2020 should be considered the absolute floor.
Ron Rivera has had a 6-10 season twice as Head Coach. The first was his very first year as a head coach in 2011, taking over the Carolina Panthers after their prior 2-14 season. In 2012 the Panthers went 7-9, and then broke out to 12-4 in 2013. The second 6-10 season was 2016, the year after losing in the Super Bowl.
Jack Del Rio has never had a 6-10 season as a Defensive Coordinator. Even in 2002, in Carolina, his top 3 defense kept Carolina from being worse than 7-9.
Now consider: Both the Giants and Cowboys are going through a Head Coach reset right now. The Giants have a disaster of a Front Office (we can sympathize) and a mess of a roster. The Cowboys have some very expensive free agent deals to figure out, and they need a successor to Jason Garrett. The NFC East is going to be dictated based on who handles our divisional chaos the best. I think it's going to be either the Eagles or us.
Realistic Floor: 6-10, 3rd in NFCE
Realistic Ceiling: 9-7, 2nd in NFCE
I'll keep my fingers crossed that we can have a miracle season, but I think this 3 game spread makes the most sense for our new regime.
Let me know what you guys think. Thanks for reading.