FanPost

2020 Season Theorycraft

I've been trying to consider what the realistic improvements are for next year. We can all have lofty goals, and recently I've seen comments that just scratch the realm of self-fulfilling disappointment. I actually heard some people call in on Grant/Danny that they expect the following, or FAILURE:

  • Playoff Win by year 2, or
  • 2020 Division Championship
Most of this is wishing for success, but it doesn't do anything to realistically set expectations for the 2020 team with Riverboat Ron, Jack Del Rio, and presumably Kevin O'Connell in charge. We obviously don't have the future knowledge of if we are grabbing Chase Young at #2, trading back, offloading Trent Williams or Ryan Kerrigan for draft picks, etc.

I believe a realistic goal should be a greater than .500 in 2 of the next 3 years, with a playoff appearance in that time span. That's better than trending the right direction. It's the lower end of desired expectations, and given the Redskins' track record: A Huge Improvement.

But what should we expect next year? First we need to see where we are.

Where are we now?

In the last 5 seasons we've consistently trended down, compiling a 34-45-1 (.425) record and deteriorating points differential.
2015: 9-7, PF: 388, PA: 379, PD: 9
2016: 8-7-1, PF: 396, PA: 383, PD: 13
2017: 7-9, PF: 342, PA: 388, PD: -46
2018: 7-9, PF: 281, PA: 359, PD: -78
2019: 3-13, PF: 266, PA: 435, PD: -169

In 2015 - 2017 we maintained a 21-24 PF/G average, and had we done that this year, we could have won 3 additional games (9-0 vs 49ers, 19-9 vs Vikings, & 20-15 vs Packers). It still would have been trending down (6-10) and we needed to axe Gruden and especially Manusky, but at the very least we'd have won a few more games. For data-based Manusky reasoning:

2017 WAS/Manusky: Yds - #21, Pts - #27, TkA - #12
2018 WAS/Manusky
: Yds - #17, Pts - #15, TkA - #10
2019 WAS/Manusky
: Yds - #27, Pts - #27, TkA - #15

We regularly gave up 24+ PA/G in the Manusky era. So ~19 PF/G ('17-'18 with Gruden/Manusky combo) and consistent 24 PA/G means the best case scenario is a less than .500 season with this combo. Trending down, indeed.

What should we expect?

I took a look at the defense primarily, as Haskins' development is a gigantic "?" Also, with all the talent on paper for our defense, we all KNOW that the defense should have been better this past year. Also #2, with hiring both a Defensive-Minded HC and a Defensive-Mastermind in Jack Del Rio, we can expect some very reasonable improvements in their first year.

Here is Jack Del Rio's ranking sheet as a Defensive Coordinator at Pro Football Reference.
2002 CAR: Yds - #2, Pts - #5, TkA - #7
2012 DEN: Yds - #2, Pts - #4, TkA - #16
2013 DEN: Yds - #19, Pts - #22, TkA - #16
2014 DEN: Yds - #3, Pts - #16, TkA - #14

Here is the record of those four teams. I should note, Peyton Manning was the QB in Denver.
2002 CAR: 7-9, PF: 258, PA: 302, PD: -44
2012 DEN: 13-3, PF: 481, PA: 289, PD: 192
2013 DEN: 13-3, PF: 606, PA: 399, PD: 207
2014 DEN: 12-4, PF: 482, PA: 354, PD: 128

So that establishes the pedigree from which JDR will establish his defense. The "down" year in Denver, if you want to call it that, was when Peyton Freakin' Manning was lighting up teams for 37.9 PPG. Those are tough games to lose, and easier to call more mellow plays. Hell, I could make an argument that you want to drag out the opposing team's offense for longer, less your own offense get tired of blitzing down the field for touchdowns. But I digress...

I expect, based on the prior history of JDR and the players on this team, that we'll post something around 20 PA/G next season. That would have ranked us at #11 this year, as 10 teams allowed less than 20 points per game. To be around the same in terms of YD/G, we'd need to limit opposing teams to 330 Yards or less. If we would have limited opposing teams to 20 points this season, we would have won an additional 4 games--even with our anemic offense.

Speaking of Anemic Offense...

The Callahan/O'Connell combo yielded 19.5 PF/G through the last ten games. O'Connell had "full control" for the final four games (Packers, Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys [without Dwayne Haskins]), or 23.25 PF/G. This compares to Jay Gruden's 14.6 PF/G to start the season.

Gruden @ 14.6 ---> Callahan/KOC @ 19.5 ---> KOC @ 23.25

In an article Mark Bullock did at The Athletic ($), Kevin O'Connell explained a bit about his philosophy. It seems designed to be QB-friendly, especially for someone like Haskins.
"That’s a huge thing for me. Trying to get these quarterbacks comfortable early in the game," O’Connell said. "Getting those guys in a rhythm is very important in this league even for a Hall of Fame quarterbacks. I’ve talked to guys that call plays for them and they say, ‘Rhythm and comfort, and trust that (A) We’ll protect him, (B) get him into a rhythm and (C) We’ll give him opportunities to make plays in the game without it all being on his plate."
Mark went through a number of different plays, breaking down where KOC's influence is tied to basic West Coast Concepts, some Gruden panache, elements from O'Connell's days shadowing Tom Brady on the Patriots, and even ideas that he's developed himself. It was a great highlight of what KOC could be capable of in his own design and control of an offensive system. What we've seen has been significantly weighed down by Gruden & Callahan, and a total lack of developing Dwayne Haskins. And despite all of those headwinds, KOC was still able to impress with a raw QB to the tune of:
vs Packers: 16/27 for 170 yds, 1 TDs, 1 INTs, 4 sacks, & 74.6 rating
vs Eagles: 19/28 for 261 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 1 sack, & 121.3 rating
vs Giants: 12/15 for 133 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 2 sacks, & 143.2 rating

While Callahan’s run-heavy philosophy still dominates the Redskins offense, O’Connell has shown a few glimpses of what his offense might look like should he be given full control. For the rest of this season, he’ll likely be stuck calling Callahan’s version of Gruden’s system, with a few of his ideas thrown in here and there. But his philosophy is clear, using the quick game to get the quarterback settled before exploiting match-ups by formation and alignment. It’s a mix of the west coast offense and Gruden’s influence along with some of the influence from his time with Tom Brady and the Patriots. While O’Connell might lack experience, it’s a system that could suit Haskins and that could give O’Connell an advantage when the Redskins look to hire their next head coach.
I expect, pending Kevin O'Connell is retained by Ron Rivera, that the Redskins will be on track for 24 PF/G next season. This would rank them at #13 this year. This would need to be complemented by ~360-365 YDS/G to be ranked similarly. Both of which I believe are doable, given the development of both Haskins and KOC over the course of the season. If we would have scored 24 points against opposing teams this season, we would have won an additional 3 games, and tied another two. Just for the sake of argument, we'll ignore the ties.

Realistic Goals?

If we want to look at this realistically, we need to see either the offense or defense as the improvement, and then hedge with no improvement on the other side. If improvements can be made to either side, and the other repeating similar mistakes, we're looking at a 3-4 game bump in 2020. Therefore a 6-10 Season in 2020 should be considered the absolute floor.

Ron Rivera has had a 6-10 season twice as Head Coach. The first was his very first year as a head coach in 2011, taking over the Carolina Panthers after their prior 2-14 season. In 2012 the Panthers went 7-9, and then broke out to 12-4 in 2013. The second 6-10 season was 2016, the year after losing in the Super Bowl.

Jack Del Rio has never had a 6-10 season as a Defensive Coordinator. Even in 2002, in Carolina, his top 3 defense kept Carolina from being worse than 7-9.

Now consider: Both the Giants and Cowboys are going through a Head Coach reset right now. The Giants have a disaster of a Front Office (we can sympathize) and a mess of a roster. The Cowboys have some very expensive free agent deals to figure out, and they need a successor to Jason Garrett. The NFC East is going to be dictated based on who handles our divisional chaos the best. I think it's going to be either the Eagles or us.

Realistic Floor: 6-10, 3rd in NFCE

Realistic Ceiling: 9-7, 2nd in NFCE

I'll keep my fingers crossed that we can have a miracle season, but I think this 3 game spread makes the most sense for our new regime.

Let me know what you guys think. Thanks for reading.