FanPost

There is still a bunch of talent available going into the 3rd and final day of the draft, but what are the odds the Redskins will find a useful player today?

The fourth round is a good time to take character and/or medical risks or on players that have an obvious athletic (H/W/Speed) deficiency.

Of approximately 180 players drafted in Rd4 over the past 5 yrs (2013-17), about 1/3 (63) have had consistent success in the NFL.

Especially interior offensive lineman and running backs have been consistent bargains on offense, and this is your last realistic chance to find a pass rusher.

QB - Dak Prescott
RB - Devonta Freeman, James White, Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, Jamaal Williams, Javorius Allen,
Mike Davis, Devontae Booker, Kenneth Dixon
WR - Martavis Bryant, Jamison Crowder, Dede Westbrook, Bruce Ellington, Josh Reynolds, Justin Hardy, Mack Hollins
TE/FB - Kyle Juszczyk, Tyler Higbee, Dion Sims
OT - David Bakhtiari, Daryl Williams, Julie'n Davenport, Cameron Fleming
IOL - Shaquille Mason, J.C. Tretter, Alex Lewis, Russell Bodine, Brian Schwenke, Bryan Stork, Arie Kouandjio, Jon Feliciano

DL - Akeem Spence, DaQuan Jones, Justin Ellis, Dean Lowry, Carlos Watkins
Edge - Trey Flowers, Za'Darius Smith, William Gholston, Deatrich Wise, Cassius Marsh, Alex Okafor, Carl Lawson
IOB LB - Kwon Alexander, Blake Martinez, De'Vondre Campbell, Anthony Hitchens, Nick Kwiatkoski, Antonio Morrison, Jake Ryan
CB - Ross Cockrell, Bashaud Breeland, Tavon Young (nickel), Aaron Colvin (nickel), Pierre Desir, B.W. Webb
S - Eddie Jackson, Montae Nicholson, Clayton Geathers,
Tre Boston,
Eric Murray, Duke Williams


2018 - Antonio Callaway, Nyheim Hines, Da'Shawn Hand, Davonte Maddox, Kenny Young

Of approximately 190 players drafted in Rd5 over the past 5 yrs, only 57 (being very generous) have had some measure of success. Only 8% (23 are current starters)

In terms of depth, running back is by far the deepest position, but take a look at the top three wideouts!!

On defense, undersized 3-techs, ILBs, and S/CB/Nickelbacks also stand out.

QB - AJ McCarron, Kevin Hogan, Nathan Peterman
RB - Jay Ajayi, Jordan Howard, Alex Collins, Aaron Jones, Brian Hill, DeAndre Washington, Wendell Smallwood, Mike Gillislee, Cameron Artis-Payne, Zac Stacy, Joseph Randle
WR - Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, Kenny Stills, Trent Taylor, Tajae Sharpe, Rashard Higgins, J.J. Nelson
TE/FB - George Kittle, Jesse James, C.J. Uzomah, Nick Boyle
OT - Ricky Wagner, Brandon Shell, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Spencer Drango, Oday Aboushi
IOL - Connor McGovern, Caleb Benenoch, Christian Westerman, Joe Dahl, John Urschel

DL - Grady Jarrett, Davon Godchaux, Matthew Ioannidis, Ronald Blair, D.J. Reader
Edge - Matt Judon, Aaron Lynch
IOB LB - Telvin Smith, Avery Williamson, Devon Kennard, Marquel Lee, Anthony Walker Jr., A.J. Klein, Jayon Brown, David Mayo
CB - Desmond King (nickel), Bene Benwikere, Tharold Simon
S - Adrian Amos, Micah Hyde, Ricardo Allen, Damontae Kazee

2018 - Tre Flowers, Genard Avery, Maurice Hurst, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tim Settle, Shaquem Griffin

Of approximately 180 players drafted in Rd6 over the past 5 yrs, only 28 have had some measure of success in the NFL and only 11 are current starters

QB - Nate Sudfeld
RB -Latavius Murray, Rex Burkhead, Theo Riddick, Alfred Blue, Andre Ellington, Elijah McGuire
WR - Quincy Enunwa, Jakeem Grant
TE/FB - Ryan Griffin, Andy Janovich, Derek Watt, Nick O'Leary, Rico Gathers
OT - Tyrus Thompson,
IOL - Ryan Jensen, Chase Roullier, Zach Fulton

DL - Christian Covington, Caleb Brantley, Elijah Qualls
Edge -
IOB LB -
CB - E.J. Gaines, Quandre Diggs (nickel),
S - Xavier Woods, Jordan Lucas, DeAndre Houston-Carson, Chuck Clark, Rudy Ford, Antone Exum

2018 -
John Kelly, Shaun Dion Hamilton, Equanimeous St. Brown


Of approximately 190 players drafted in Rd7 over the past 5 yrs, only 23 have had some measure of success in the NFL and only seven are current starters.

QB - Trevor Siemian, Chad Kelly,
RB - Chris Carson
WR - Brice Butler, Mike Campanaro
TE/FB -
OT - Charles Leno Jr., Trenton Brown, Denzell Goode, Seantrel Henderson
IOL - Austin Blythe, Ulrick John, Vadal Alexander

DL - Beau Allen,
Edge - Isaac Rochell,
IOB LB - Elijah Lee, Tyler Matakevich
LB/S - Josh Harvey-Clemons, Jayron Kearse
CB - Jalen Mills, Andre Hal
S - Jordan Poyer, Kemal Ishmael

2018 - Trey Quinn, Leon Jacobs, Greg Stroman, Will Clapp


What does all this mean?


1.
The odds of you 1) identifying, and 2) developing a quarterback not picked in the top-100 are extremely low.
2. You can wait (after Rd3) for a RB as long as you subscribe to the RBBC approach, but it is more difficult after Rd5.
3. Some Rd5 gambles at WR have paid off huge.
4. The Packers and Patriots are two successful NFL teams that refuse to use > Rd4 on interior OLine. (2019 was the fist time the Packers picked IOL before Rd4 since 2006).
5. Round four is your last chance of finding a pass-rusher (it just won't be a bendy edge rusher with a great athletic profile).
6. Instead, focus those resources on Safeties, Slot-defenders, or ILBs
7. If you use a fullback, you probably can get a starter in Rd6.
8. Considering throwing a dart at a LB/S hybrid in Rd7 (Josh Harvey-Clemons, Jayron Kearse, Travin Howard, Jeremy Cash, Eric Striker)...
9. ...or an offensive tackle, where the "hit rate" is higher than expected.