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[UPDATED] Announcing the winner of the 2nd annual Roster Prediction Contest!

Successfully predicting the fate of guys that most NFL fans have never heard of since 2017

NFL: Washington Redskins-Minicamp Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

We began a long journey together back on the 30th of April, when the first UDFA profile of 2018 was published, featuring Simmie Cobbs Jr., who is now one of 10 players on the Redskins Practice Squad.

Over the course of the next 4 weeks, 16 more UDFA profiles were done, for a total of 17, with the final one in the series being Darvin Kidsy.

But this is not the kind of site where we just toss out some profiles and walk away. I see my mission at Hogs Haven to be sure that this motley crew of likely future warehousemen and used car salesmen get more than just their 15 minutes in the sun.

On the 1st of June, we posted an article looking at which of these guys had experience as kick and punt returners.

Fearing that the awareness of the UDFA players might be fading, and wanting to get as much milage as possible out of the profiles posted in May, I put up three summary articles ahead of training camp:

A review of UDFA wide receivers at training camp

Another look at non-WR UDFA offensive players at training camp

A review of UDFA defensive players at training camp

But we didn’t stop there.

Following the second preseason game, we published an article re-visiting the punt & kick returner competition in an effort to see if it would give any insight to training camp battles (personally, I think it did exactly that).

A lot of these players got another look in the review of the WR training camp battle that we published on the 21st of August.

Eventually, of course, the preseaon had to end, and I knew I couldn’t lap at the teat of the UDFA milk supply forever. To put a bow on it all, we published the 2nd annual roster prediction contest aimed at successfully predicting the fates of late round draft picks and UDFAs prior to the final cut to 53 players.

Incredibly, 35 readers decided to take a shot at the contest, which involved predicting the fates of 20 players — 6 late round draft picks and 14 UDFAs.

Among the entrants were Gibbs4potus, who did the film breakdowns for the UDFA profiles this year, and Redspin, the winner of the inaugural 2017 Roster Prediction Contest, who has the honor, in perpetuity, of listing his victory in his sig line:

Entrants had to predict one of three outcomes for each player:

  • He made the team (the final 53-man roster)
  • He was put onto the Redskins practice squad; or
  • He was cut

Entrants earned points for correct predictions, but were penalized for incorrect predictions by losing points.

The winning entry was to be determined by looking at the status of the 20 players at 5pm EDT on Thursday, 6 September 2018.

Here’s what actually happened to the 20 players in question:

Click here to see the entire Redskins roster, practice squad and reserve lists.

Our crack team of analysts has now completed the process of tabulating the results, and we are ready to share them with the world.

and the winner is...

Juve Duran!

Juve topped the table by scoring 89 points.

Interestingly, the contest was initially a tie between two entrants, Juve Duran and HTTR86, who were tied at the time of initial cutdowns, with 81 points each. But when J.P. Holtz was brought back to the Redskins Practice Squad a few days after the roster was initially set on Saturday, but well ahead of the Thursday deadline, that pushed Juve Duran, who had predicted Holtz on the practice squad, into sole possession of 1st place!

Congratulations to Juve Duran on his win, and to the rest of the entrants on well-thought out and high-scoring entries. The average score earned by our 35 entrants was 63.7 points, which is a testament to a fan base who is extremely knowledgeable about the relative unknowns at the bottom of the Redskins roster in 2018. Truly arcane knowledge!

Juve, in fact, missed on only 4 of his 20 predictions, meaning that he hit on 16 correctly — an 80% hit rate! In fact, he correctly predicted every player who made the team, except for Casey Dunn, and correctly predicted the fate of every player who eventually made the Practice Squad. It was a truly impressive feat of prediction that indicates that psychic traits likely run in Juve’s family.

As a reward for this impressive feat of prognostication, Juve Duran will, in perpetuity, be entitled to add the following claim to his signature line:

“Roster Contest Champion, 2018”

Let it be known in every corner of the land, from this day forth, that Juve Duran is the Seer of Seers, Sage of Sages, Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Roster Prophet Extraordinaire!

Here is the full list of entrants with their final scores

*** Please note that this list was updated about 6 hours after the post was initially published when KyleSmithforGM pointed out a flaw in my score calculation. There is always a balance in large, single-use spreadsheets unlikely to have a lot of changes that needs to be considered. Should it be filled with complex formulas that calculate scores automatically, or should it simply be a ‘dumb’ table, where scores are manually calculated and entered? The first takes a lot of time to design complex formulas that will probably never be needed. The latter saves time in constructing the sheet, but opens the door wider to the possibility of human error at the time of input.

In the end, I opted for a compromise. Since almost everyone had put all the draft picks on the team, I decided to enter those scores manually, since it was mostly a copy & paste job, and was unlikely to see much change.

I put limited formulas into the UDFA slots, where the score was calculated simply on whether the prediction matched the player’s status. When Hotz’s status changed, I updated him from Cut to PS, and all the scores changed as expected. What I forgot about was that I had written limited formulas that made only one test in an either/or possibility, which took only a moment to write; I hadn’t written ‘nested’ if/then condition tests, which seemed needlessly complex for this spreadsheet.

When I changed Holtz’s status from Cut to PS, I had to go to the formula and change the condition being tested from Cut to PS, which I forgot to do.

The result was that I got the right winner, but I underestimated his score, and I underestimated the score of everyone who didn’t choose “team” for Holtz.

The revised list of scores below reflects the correction to that formula, and the resulting increase in most entrants’ final scores. Thanks to KyleSmithforGM for pointing out the mistake quickly so I was able to correct it and show the increased level of the collective wisdom of the Hogs Haven fan base. Although I feel quite confident that the scores should now accurately reflect everyone’s entry results accurately, if anyone spots another error, please let me know and I will endeavor to correct it immediately or sooner.

Apologies for the spreadsheet scoring mistake, and — perhaps more importantly — for spelling GAL Gadot’s name wrong in the poll question.

I want to thank everyone who participated. I hope everyone enjoyed the contest and will return next year when we will update the prize to be even bigger and better by changing the year to 2019!

Enjoy the Cardinals game, and HTTR!!!


Which would mean more to you?

This poll is closed

  • 64%
    A romantic date with the incredible Gai Gadot, who is perhaps most famous for her role as Wonder Woman in the 2017 film with the eponymous title
    (106 votes)
  • 35%
    Winning a 5 o’clock club contest and seeing my name touted in a an article by Bill-in-Bangkok
    (58 votes)
164 votes total Vote Now