FanPost

What Are Our Expectations?

Been a while since I've posted here on Hogs Haven (4 years, just about). I figured I'd give this another whirl...

Anyway, going into this season, we have a lot of variance in our "best case/worst case" scenarios as far as individual performances go, as well as team performance. Oddly enough, QB is one position where most seem to have the "best" worst-case scenario with Alex Smith. His veteran presence and steady play over such a long period of time give us a bit of comfort that if this team succeeds or fails, it won't be due to the consistency of his play. In fact, I dare say it's the one position on offense we have zero concern about as a fanbase.

However, what are our expectations from the team and from our key players?

I see us as a 9-7 team this season. I'm fairly optimistic. Our front 7 has a lot of talent, our offense can be potent when healthy, and we managed to fight to 7-9 despite a rash of injuries and a stubborn head coach who lacks flexibility in his game-planning and adjustments.

Personally, I see Smith going for about 3600 yards, 23 tds, and 8 ints. We have a cadre of running backs, and provided our line stays healthy, we won't be leaning on the arm of our QB to make or break every game.

Running game - I'm expecting about 180-200 carries from AP. He'll get the lions share of the carries, but he won't be getting 300+ touches like he did earlier in his career. He doesn't have to. if we can get 700-800 good yards from him, and Kelley/Perine spell him decently, our run game becomes an asset instead of a threat. Definitely an upgrade over my initial thoughts, but his attitude and his one performance in the preseason upped my expectations. I do wish we had Guice...I saw him as a 1100 yard back this season...

Receivers - Good golly, is this a roll of the dice...the only proven threat amongst the wideouts is Jamison Crowder, who I expect to maintain his average production of 64/747/4 this season. Maybe a touch more. Crowder is as solid a slot receiver as it gets, and he'll be a quick safety valve for Smith. Here's where things get cloudy. Josh Doctson has shown flashes of greatness, but doesn't seem to find himself getting the looks up until this point. Paul Richardson has had one productive NFL season (and that was starting opposite of Doug Baldwin...and even then, he only had 9 more catches than Doc). Jordan Reed is a top 5 TE when healthy. The question is, will he stay healthy? If he is, I can see Reed putting up Travis Kelce-like numbers. 80+ receptions, pushing 1000 yards. Smith always has liked his TEs, and will feed them often.

Our D could be a top-12 defense if the front 7 holds. I think the most important barometer will be our rushing yards number vs our rushing yards allowed number. If we out-run teams, we will win. Pass rush and getting pressure will not be an issue. Ryan Kerrigan needs 10 sacks to surpass Charles Mann for second on the franchise's all-time sack list, and given that he has hit double-digit sack numbers in 3 of his past 4 seasons, no reason to not see it happening here for the Heartbreak Kid. In fact, I see Kerrigan overtaking that number one spot before 2019 is over.

Our secondary will benefit from our front 7. You probably won't see a single player with more than 4 interceptions, but the wealth will be spread around, as forced throws will end up in the arms of whoever is around. Quinton Dunbar's progression into being a full-time starter is the key to our success, as he has shown he can be solid in his limited amount of time on the field, but hasn't had to produce like that over 16 full games.

What are your expectations for the team? For individual players?