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The 5 O’Clock Club: Wildly celebrating the results of the inaugural Matt Shaub Pick-6 Prediction contest

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It’s 5 o’clock somewhere…and, unsurprisingly, we have a tie

Houston Texans v San Francisco 49ers Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The 5 o’clock club is published Wednesday to Saturday during the season, and aims to provide a forum for reader-driven discussion at a time of day when there isn’t much NFL news being published. Feel free to introduce topics that interest you in the comments below.

The contest

Prior to the opening game of the season, the 5 o’clock club sponsored a prediction contest.

Entrants had to correctly predict the records for six teams through the first three weeks of the season. As a tie-breaker, entrants had to predict the Redskins point differential (+/-) through the first three weeks.

Here are the actual results:

That’s right... 5 of our 6 teams have mustered only a single win so far in the 2018 season, and the Eagles are the only team in the contest to record two victories. No one who entered the contest saw that coming.

In my personal predictions from the contest article, I correctly predicted the records for the Eagles and Patriots, and I got the win-total correct for the Vikings. So, counting win-totals, I would have scored 3 points; based on exact record predictions, I would have scored 2 points. Neither would have been good enough to win, and several people outscored me.

Now it’s time to unveil and celebrate the winner(s).

The conundrum

Before I do, though, I’d like to point out that two of the six teams that were part of the contest (the Browns and Vikings) each had a tie in the first 3 weeks, which had an effect on the contest, since no one predicted ties, and in my article setting up the contest I implied that ties wouldn’t be part of it.

I saw two possibilities to resolving this conundrum:

1. I could give a point to anyone who correctly predicted the total wins for the Vikings & Browns (which several people did) instead of correctly predicting their actual records (which no one did).

2. I could simply give no points to anyone for the Browns or Vikings, since no one predicted the ties.

Good news

As it turned out, I didn’t really have any difficult decision to make, because either method gave me the same results. Multiple people tied for the same score, which moved us to the tie-breaker. Only one entrant, McLovinLife, correctly picked the Redskins to have a +20 point differential, but he was one point behind the leaders, so he was not involved in the tie breaking portion.

Depending on the scoring method used, I had either an 8-way tie or a 10-way tie for first place.

And the winner is...

Going to the tie breaker, two entrants who tied for first place in the contest had projected +18 point differential, making them the closest of the first-place finishers to the actual number of +20.

Also, both entrants tied for first in both methods because — not only had they both predicted a +18 point differential — the two entrants had made identical picks for all 6 teams as well.

Given the fact that the NFL had a tie in each of the first two weeks of the season, and that our contest involved a team from each of those two draws, it seems fitting to simply declare the Pick-6 contest a tie as well.

I give you, then, our co-champions:




Results for all entrants

Here is a summary of the outcomes. The top chart rewards entrants for getting the correct number of wins (max possible score of 6), while the bottom chart rewards only getting the team’s record exactly correct (a max score of 4).

Getting the number of wins right

Getting the records exactly right

I’d like to congratulate our co-champions, sunshine_skins and tao9087 who managed to play to a draw. Browns and Vikings fans appreciate your efforts as well.

You may brag about your achievement in the comments section of the 5 o’clock club posts until kickoff of the Saints game on MNF next week, at which point you will no longer be able to brag about your cousin-kissing level of achievement.

Additionally, you may, if you wish, add the following to your signature line in perpetuity:

“I tied for first place in the 2018 inaugural Matt Shaub Pick-6 prediction contest”

I’d also like to thank all 25 readers who took the time to participate in this contest. It’s nice to have something to celebrate this week while the Redskins are enjoying a week off from football.


Of the 6 teams in the contest, which one has the most surprising record after three games?

This poll is closed

  • 0%
    Eagles 2-1
    (1 vote)
  • 0%
    Cowboys 1-2
    (1 vote)
  • 0%
    Giants 1-2
    (0 votes)
  • 13%
    Browns 1-1-1
    (26 votes)
  • 27%
    Vikings 1-1-1
    (51 votes)
  • 57%
    Patriots 1-2
    (107 votes)
186 votes total Vote Now


Which team will be the first to beat the Rams?

This poll is closed

  • 7%
    (14 votes)
  • 5%
    (10 votes)
  • 2%
    (4 votes)
  • 9%
    (16 votes)
  • 21%
    (38 votes)
  • 39%
    (70 votes)
  • 1%
    (3 votes)
  • 5%
    (10 votes)
  • 5%
    (10 votes)
  • 0%
    (1 vote)
176 votes total Vote Now


Will the 1-2-1 Vikings, who still have to play the Eagles, Saints and Patriots this season, finish with more than 8 wins?

This poll is closed

  • 54%
    (97 votes)
  • 45%
    (81 votes)
178 votes total Vote Now