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Modeling Success: A Deep Dive into the Patriots' Draft Strategy

Looking at the fate of the 2014 Redskins' draft class (here), prompted me to think, "how closely does the trajectory of the 2014 players, and the way the Skins handled it, mirror the way "great teams" do things?" There is no greater team of this era than the New England Patriots. That success is surely due to a variety of reasons, including probably having the best QB and coach of all-time, but one of the fascinating pieces of their success is that, other than the constants of Brady and Belicheck, the rest of the team has often been fairly devoid of superstar talent. I'll confess, I know fairly little about the roster and skillsets of the Patriots players going into this exercise, but frankly, I think that's a benefit: I have no pre-conceptions.

What I intend to do here is look at the 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 Patriots' drafts, and track the trajectory and fates of those players as they rolled off their rookie contracts.

2010 Draft:

Round Player Position AV Current Status Value Added at Exit
1 Devin McCourty CB 60 Plays for NE; $9.5M/year
2 Rob Gronkowski TE 76 Plays for NE; $9M/year
2 Jermaine Cunningham OLB 8 OOL
2 Brandon Spikes LB 25 Played for BUF, left after RC; OOL 3rd & 7th round comp picks (combined with other FA losses).
3 Taylor Price WR 1 OOL
4 Aaron Hernandez TE 23 Deceased
5 Zoltan Mesko P 6 OOL
6 Ted Larsen C 36 Never played for NE
7 Thomas Welch OT 2 Cut by NE; OOL
7 Brandon Deaderick DL 10 Cut by NE; OOL
7 Kade Weston DL 0 Never played
7 Zac Robinson QB 8 Cut by NE; OOL

Notable Elements: Lots of picks and lots of wash outs in this draft. The top two players, McCourty and Gronkowski were signed to fairly generous long term deals. The loss of Spikes, combined with other free agents, resulted in 3rd and 7th round comp picks in the 2015 draft.

2011 Draft:

Round Player Position AV Current Status Value Added at Exit
1 Nate Solder OT 60 Allowed to walk after second contract. Plays for NYG; $15.5M/year Likely 3rd round comp pick.
2 Ras-I Dowling DB 1 Cut by NE; OOL
2 Shane Vereen RB 27 Allowed to walk after RC. Plays for NYG; $3.95M/year 5th round comp pick.
3 Stevan Ridley RB 26 Allowed to walk after RC. Plays for PIT; $790k/year
3 Ryan Mallett QB 4 Traded to HOU for 6/7 round pick. Traded for 6/7 round pick.
5 Marcus Cannon OL 32 Plays for NE, signed to second contract; $6.5M/year
5 Lee Smith TE 3 Cut from NE; Plays for OAK
6 Markell Carter OLB 0 Never played
7 Malcolm Williams CB 0 Cut by NE; OOL

Notable Elements: Solder was signed to a second contract, but once his price got too high, he was allowed to walk. The Pats will likely get a compensatory 3rd in exchange. Shane Vereen was allowed to walk for a compensatory 5th rounder. Marcus Cannon was retained on a team friendly deal. Several late round picks and a second rounder washed out of the league.

2012 Draft:

Round Player Position AV Current Status Value Added at Exit
1 Chandler Jones DE 57 Traded to AZ in last year of rookie contract for 2nd RP; $16.5M/year Traded for 2nd round pick.
1 Dont'a Hightower LB 45 Plays for NE; $8.875M/year
2 Tavon Wilson S 14 Plays for Lions; $3.5M/year 5th round comp pick, with others.
3 Jake Bequette DE 0 OOL
6 Nate Ebner DB 10 Plays for NE; $2.5M/year
7 Alfonzo Dennard CB 8 OOL
7 Jeremy Ebert WR 0 OOL

Notable Elements: It appears NE recognized that they were not going to re-sign rockstar, Chandler Jones, after his rookie contract, and were able to parlay him into a second round pick from the Cards. Dont'a Hightower and Nate Ebner were retained and signed to much more team friendly deals. It's interesting to note that, performance wise, Hightower is not very far off Jones, but was signed for about half the cost. Tavon Wilson was allowed to walk after his rookie deal and was part of a package that resulted in a 5th round comp pick. Three players are no longer in the league.

2013 Draft:

Round Player Position AV Current Status Value Added at Exit
2 Jamie Collins OLB 38 Plays for Browns; $12.5M/year Traded for 3rd round comp pick.
2 Aaron Dobson WR 6 Out of league (OOL)
3 Logan Ryan CB 23 Plays for Titans; $10M/year 4th round comp pick, with others.
3 Duron Harmon SS 11 Plays for NE; $4.25M/year
4 Josh Boyce WR 1 OOL
7 Michael Buchanan DE 0 OOL
7 Steve Beauharnais ILB 0 OOL

Notable Elements: Jamie Collins was traded in the late portion of his rookie contract for a compensatory 3rd rounder. Logan Ryan was allowed to walk, and was part of a group of FAs lost that resulted in a 4th round comp pick. Duron Harmon was retained on a team friendly deal. 4 players are now out of the league.

2014 Draft:

Round Player Position AV Current Status Value Added at Exit
1 Dominique Easley DT 6 OOL
2 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 8 Traded to SF; $27.5M/year Traded for 2nd round pick.
4 Bryan Stork C 11 OOL
4 James White RB 19 Plays for NE; $4M/year
4 Cameron Fleming T 15 Plays for Dallas; $2.5M/year Could potentially result in a 6/7 round comp pick.
6 Jon Halapio G 2 Plays for NYG; $555k/year
6 Jemea Thomas DB 0 OOL
7 Jeremy Gallon WR 0 OOL

Notable Elements: As everyone knows, Jimmy Garoppolo was retained basically to the end of his rookie deal, and traded for a 2nd round pick from SF (echoes of the Chandler Jones deal). James White was retained on a team friendly deal as an RB2. Fleming and Halapio were allowed to walk after their rookie deals. Compensatory picks have yet to be awarded for these individuals, but Fleming could potentially result in a pick for NE. 4 players are now out of the league.

As I said from the outset, I went into the analysis without any pre-conceptions. I've come out a little blown away. The Patriots haven't drafted nearly as well as I thought they had, and basically all of the best players they drafted during this period, with the exception of McCourty, Gronk, and Dont'a Hightower, are no longer with the team. They used Chandler Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo as trade bait for high round picks in the last year of their rookie deals, presumably when they knew they were not going to sign them, and they traded Collins at the end of his deal for a 3rd round comp pick. Logan Ryan was allowed to walk and was part of a package that resulted in a 4th round comp pick.

Could any of these situations be the fates of Preston Smith, Jamison Crowder, Ari Kouandijo, or Martrell Spaight?

They signed McCourty (5-year) and Gronk (6-year) to generous, long term deals at the end of their rookie contracts, which makes a great deal of sense considering each is among the best at his position. One of the best players they retained, Dont'a Hightower, was done at a very team friendly deal, with James White's deal not far behind. NE retained a few key starters, Cannon, Harmon, and Ebner, on team friendly deals at the end of their rookie contracts.

It would be interesting to take this exercise back even further, and in time, I may do that, but in the meantime, it's amazing to see how actively the Patriots manage their roster, and protect their cap space. The Patriots are 18th in Offensive Spending (Redskins are 25th) and 19th in Defensive Spending (Redskins are 9th).

The Pats currently have 7 players drafted between 2010 and 2014 on their roster. The Redskins have 5 (TW, RyKer, Jordan Reed, Chris Thompson, Morgan Moses).

Bonus Content:

2015 Draft:

Round Player Position AV Current Status Value Added at Exit
1 Malcom Brown DL 22 Plays for NE
2 Jordan Richards DB 6 Plays for NE
3 Geneo Grissom DE 3 Plays for NE
4 Trey Flowers DE 16 Plays for NE
4 Tre' Jackson OL 6 OOL
4 Shaq Mason OL 24 Plays for NE
5 Joe Cardona LS 3 Plays for NE
6 Matthew Wells LB 0 OOL
6 AJ Derby TE 3 Waived by NE
7 Darryl Roberts CB 3 Waived by NE
7 Xzavier Dickson DE 0 OOL

Notable Elements: This was a pretty solid draft. Flowers, Brown, and Mason are all playing for NE at a high level. 3 more are role players on the team. In the comments, tell me who you think they keep in 2019 and who you think they part ways with.