Looking at the fate of the 2014 Redskins' draft class (here), prompted me to think, "how closely does the trajectory of the 2014 players, and the way the Skins handled it, mirror the way "great teams" do things?" There is no greater team of this era than the New England Patriots. That success is surely due to a variety of reasons, including probably having the best QB and coach of all-time, but one of the fascinating pieces of their success is that, other than the constants of Brady and Belicheck, the rest of the team has often been fairly devoid of superstar talent. I'll confess, I know fairly little about the roster and skillsets of the Patriots players going into this exercise, but frankly, I think that's a benefit: I have no pre-conceptions.
What I intend to do here is look at the 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 Patriots' drafts, and track the trajectory and fates of those players as they rolled off their rookie contracts.
2010 Draft:
Round | Player | Position | AV | Current Status | Value Added at Exit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Devin McCourty | CB | 60 | Plays for NE; $9.5M/year | |
2 | Rob Gronkowski | TE | 76 | Plays for NE; $9M/year | |
2 | Jermaine Cunningham | OLB | 8 | OOL | |
2 | Brandon Spikes | LB | 25 | Played for BUF, left after RC; OOL | 3rd & 7th round comp picks (combined with other FA losses). |
3 | Taylor Price | WR | 1 | OOL | |
4 | Aaron Hernandez | TE | 23 | Deceased | |
5 | Zoltan Mesko | P | 6 | OOL | |
6 | Ted Larsen | C | 36 | Never played for NE | |
7 | Thomas Welch | OT | 2 | Cut by NE; OOL | |
7 | Brandon Deaderick | DL | 10 | Cut by NE; OOL | |
7 | Kade Weston | DL | 0 | Never played | |
7 | Zac Robinson | QB | 8 | Cut by NE; OOL |
Notable Elements: Lots of picks and lots of wash outs in this draft. The top two players, McCourty and Gronkowski were signed to fairly generous long term deals. The loss of Spikes, combined with other free agents, resulted in 3rd and 7th round comp picks in the 2015 draft.
2011 Draft:
Round | Player | Position | AV | Current Status | Value Added at Exit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nate Solder | OT | 60 | Allowed to walk after second contract. Plays for NYG; $15.5M/year | Likely 3rd round comp pick. |
2 | Ras-I Dowling | DB | 1 | Cut by NE; OOL | |
2 | Shane Vereen | RB | 27 | Allowed to walk after RC. Plays for NYG; $3.95M/year | 5th round comp pick. |
3 | Stevan Ridley | RB | 26 | Allowed to walk after RC. Plays for PIT; $790k/year | |
3 | Ryan Mallett | QB | 4 | Traded to HOU for 6/7 round pick. | Traded for 6/7 round pick. |
5 | Marcus Cannon | OL | 32 | Plays for NE, signed to second contract; $6.5M/year | |
5 | Lee Smith | TE | 3 | Cut from NE; Plays for OAK | |
6 | Markell Carter | OLB | 0 | Never played | |
7 | Malcolm Williams | CB | 0 | Cut by NE; OOL |
Notable Elements: Solder was signed to a second contract, but once his price got too high, he was allowed to walk. The Pats will likely get a compensatory 3rd in exchange. Shane Vereen was allowed to walk for a compensatory 5th rounder. Marcus Cannon was retained on a team friendly deal. Several late round picks and a second rounder washed out of the league.
2012 Draft:
Round | Player | Position | AV | Current Status | Value Added at Exit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chandler Jones | DE | 57 | Traded to AZ in last year of rookie contract for 2nd RP; $16.5M/year | Traded for 2nd round pick. |
1 | Dont'a Hightower | LB | 45 | Plays for NE; $8.875M/year | |
2 | Tavon Wilson | S | 14 | Plays for Lions; $3.5M/year | 5th round comp pick, with others. |
3 | Jake Bequette | DE | 0 | OOL | |
6 | Nate Ebner | DB | 10 | Plays for NE; $2.5M/year | |
7 | Alfonzo Dennard | CB | 8 | OOL | |
7 | Jeremy Ebert | WR | 0 | OOL |
Notable Elements: It appears NE recognized that they were not going to re-sign rockstar, Chandler Jones, after his rookie contract, and were able to parlay him into a second round pick from the Cards. Dont'a Hightower and Nate Ebner were retained and signed to much more team friendly deals. It's interesting to note that, performance wise, Hightower is not very far off Jones, but was signed for about half the cost. Tavon Wilson was allowed to walk after his rookie deal and was part of a package that resulted in a 5th round comp pick. Three players are no longer in the league.
2013 Draft:
Round | Player | Position | AV | Current Status | Value Added at Exit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Jamie Collins | OLB | 38 | Plays for Browns; $12.5M/year | Traded for 3rd round comp pick. |
2 | Aaron Dobson | WR | 6 | Out of league (OOL) | |
3 | Logan Ryan | CB | 23 | Plays for Titans; $10M/year | 4th round comp pick, with others. |
3 | Duron Harmon | SS | 11 | Plays for NE; $4.25M/year | |
4 | Josh Boyce | WR | 1 | OOL | |
7 | Michael Buchanan | DE | 0 | OOL | |
7 | Steve Beauharnais | ILB | 0 | OOL |
Notable Elements: Jamie Collins was traded in the late portion of his rookie contract for a compensatory 3rd rounder. Logan Ryan was allowed to walk, and was part of a group of FAs lost that resulted in a 4th round comp pick. Duron Harmon was retained on a team friendly deal. 4 players are now out of the league.
2014 Draft:
Round | Player | Position | AV | Current Status | Value Added at Exit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dominique Easley | DT | 6 | OOL | |
2 | Jimmy Garoppolo | QB | 8 | Traded to SF; $27.5M/year | Traded for 2nd round pick. |
4 | Bryan Stork | C | 11 | OOL | |
4 | James White | RB | 19 | Plays for NE; $4M/year | |
4 | Cameron Fleming | T | 15 | Plays for Dallas; $2.5M/year | Could potentially result in a 6/7 round comp pick. |
6 | Jon Halapio | G | 2 | Plays for NYG; $555k/year | |
6 | Jemea Thomas | DB | 0 | OOL | |
7 | Jeremy Gallon | WR | 0 | OOL |
Notable Elements: As everyone knows, Jimmy Garoppolo was retained basically to the end of his rookie deal, and traded for a 2nd round pick from SF (echoes of the Chandler Jones deal). James White was retained on a team friendly deal as an RB2. Fleming and Halapio were allowed to walk after their rookie deals. Compensatory picks have yet to be awarded for these individuals, but Fleming could potentially result in a pick for NE. 4 players are now out of the league.
As I said from the outset, I went into the analysis without any pre-conceptions. I've come out a little blown away. The Patriots haven't drafted nearly as well as I thought they had, and basically all of the best players they drafted during this period, with the exception of McCourty, Gronk, and Dont'a Hightower, are no longer with the team. They used Chandler Jones and Jimmy Garoppolo as trade bait for high round picks in the last year of their rookie deals, presumably when they knew they were not going to sign them, and they traded Collins at the end of his deal for a 3rd round comp pick. Logan Ryan was allowed to walk and was part of a package that resulted in a 4th round comp pick.
Could any of these situations be the fates of Preston Smith, Jamison Crowder, Ari Kouandijo, or Martrell Spaight?
They signed McCourty (5-year) and Gronk (6-year) to generous, long term deals at the end of their rookie contracts, which makes a great deal of sense considering each is among the best at his position. One of the best players they retained, Dont'a Hightower, was done at a very team friendly deal, with James White's deal not far behind. NE retained a few key starters, Cannon, Harmon, and Ebner, on team friendly deals at the end of their rookie contracts.
It would be interesting to take this exercise back even further, and in time, I may do that, but in the meantime, it's amazing to see how actively the Patriots manage their roster, and protect their cap space. The Patriots are 18th in Offensive Spending (Redskins are 25th) and 19th in Defensive Spending (Redskins are 9th).
The Pats currently have 7 players drafted between 2010 and 2014 on their roster. The Redskins have 5 (TW, RyKer, Jordan Reed, Chris Thompson, Morgan Moses).
Bonus Content:
2015 Draft:
Round | Player | Position | AV | Current Status | Value Added at Exit |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Malcom Brown | DL | 22 | Plays for NE | |
2 | Jordan Richards | DB | 6 | Plays for NE | |
3 | Geneo Grissom | DE | 3 | Plays for NE | |
4 | Trey Flowers | DE | 16 | Plays for NE | |
4 | Tre' Jackson | OL | 6 | OOL | |
4 | Shaq Mason | OL | 24 | Plays for NE | |
5 | Joe Cardona | LS | 3 | Plays for NE | |
6 | Matthew Wells | LB | 0 | OOL | |
6 | AJ Derby | TE | 3 | Waived by NE | |
7 | Darryl Roberts | CB | 3 | Waived by NE | |
7 | Xzavier Dickson | DE | 0 | OOL |
Notable Elements: This was a pretty solid draft. Flowers, Brown, and Mason are all playing for NE at a high level. 3 more are role players on the team. In the comments, tell me who you think they keep in 2019 and who you think they part ways with.