Redskins 2018 NFL Draft Probability at Pick 13

Free agency is less than a week old, and already we are getting a picture of what our team will look like come September, and what our needs may be heading into April’s NFL Draft.

Let’s make some assumptions here. First, we sign Jonathan Hankins and DRC before the end of March. Second, we are going to make a selection at number 13 (I’d love a trade-back, but they are so hard to predict). Third, we will not get a trade done for Su’a Cravens that would return us a third round pick.

There will be a run on quarterbacks early in the 2018 NFL Draft

It’s a forgone conclusion that a massive run on quarterbacks will be coming in April’s draft. The Browns, Jets, Broncos and Bills are all virtual locks to select a QB early. The Giants, Dolphins, and Cardinals are all wild-cards in the QB arms race too. There are as many as six quarterbacks who could be taken in round one - Darnold, Allen, Rosen, Mayfield, Jackson and Rudolph, with the first four likely going before the Redskins select at pick number 13.

The best of the rest

Teams who are not in need of a quarterback who are selecting in the top 12 will have some very nice players to duke it out over. As it stands right now, the Giants (#2), Browns (#4), Colts (#6), Bucs (#7), 49ers (#9), Raiders (#10) and Dolphins (#11) are the teams who could be in line for the top non-quarterback prospects.

Here are the top non-quarterback prospects who could go in the top 12:

Saquon Barkley

Quenton Nelson

Bradley Chubb

Minkah Fitzpatrick

Denzel Ward

Tremaine Edmunds

Calvin Ridley

Vita Vea

Where does that leave the Redskins at pick 13?

The run on quarterbacks could benefit us greatly. If you look at our team needs, I would say linebacker, safety, running back, EDGE, defensive back and guard would be near the top.

Below are some prospects who could represent solid value vs. need at pick 13:

Derwin James S Florida St.

Roquan Smith LB Georgia

Derrius Guice RB LSU

Connor Williams T/G Texas

Marcus Davenport EDGE UTSA

Josh Jackson CB Iowa

Analysis

For me, James would be the ideal target. He can play FS, SS, slot, or dime linebacker. He’d easily give us the best pure safety prospect we’ve had since the late, great Sean Taylor. His unique blend of Height/Weight/Speed would be tantalizing for defensive coordinator Greg Manusky.

The wild card here is LSU running back Darrius Guice. Doug Williams has made it well known that the Redskins need to improve the running game, and he’s made it pretty clear that an upgrade at running back will be coming this offseason. The 5’11” 215 pound Guice offers a perfect blend of size, speed (4.49 40) and physicality. He’s also a very underrated receiver out of the backfield. If you really want to know what Guice can bring to the table, you need to watch his 2016 tape, as he played almost half of 2017 with an ankle injury that limited his effectiveness.