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Hogs Haven 2017 Season Predictions Revisited

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A look back at the Hogs Haven writers’ 2017 season predictions

Super Bowl LII - Philadelphia Eagles v New England Patriots Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

The 2017 NFL season ended in dramatic fashion this past Sunday, as, much to the chagrin of many Redskins fans, the Philadelphia Eagles outlasted the reigning champion, New England Patriots, by a score of 41-33 to win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. Every season must end with only one team reaching the mountain top; unfortunately, this season that team happened to be the Eagles.

Before we try to erase the last week of NFL history from our brains and swing into full offseason mode, let’s first look back to see what we got right and wrong in 2017.

Back in early September, our writers made predictions on everything from who would make the playoffs in each division to what the Redskins’ final record would be. Virtually every NFL site does the same thing every single season; what makes Hogs Haven so different is that we actually have the stones to go back and revisit those predictions at the conclusion of each season. Now that the season is over it’s time for us to face the music, yet again. Be gentle.

Predictions and Results

Below you can see the predictions that our group of 13 writers made before the season began:

Writers 1-4 (sorted by last name)

Category Bill-in-Bangkok Cadillactica James Dorsett Jennifer Filsinger
NFC East Giants Giants Giants Giants
NFC North Packers Packers Packers Packers
NFC South Buccaneers Buccaneers Falcons Falcons
NFC West Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
NFC Wild Card Falcons Falcons Buccaneers Buccaneers
NFC Wild Card Cardinals Vikings Cardinals Cardinals
NFC Champion Packers Giants Seahawks Packers
AFC East Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
AFC North Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
AFC South Texans Texans Titans Titans
AFC West Raiders Chiefs Chargers Raiders
AFC Wild Card Chiefs Raiders Raiders Chargers
AFC Wild Card Titans Titans Bengals Dolphins
AFC Champion Patriots Patriots Steelers Patriots
Super Bowl Packers Patriots Steelers Packers
1st Pick in 2018 Jets Rams Jets Browns
Comeback POY Rob Gronkowski Navarro Bowman J.J. Watt J.J. Watt
Coach of Year Mike Mularkey Dirk Koetter Mike Tomlin Jack Del Rio
Offensive ROY Deshaun Waston Dalvin Cook Christian McCaffrey Mitch Trubisky
Defensive ROY Haason Reddick Charles Harris Rueben Foster Myles Garrett
Offensive POY Mike Evans Derek Carr David Johnson Tom Brady
Defensive POY J.J. Watt J.J. Watt Joey Bosa Von Miller
MVP Aaron Rodgers Tom Brady Tom Brady Aaron Rodgers
Redskins Off. POY Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins
Redskins Def. POY Zach Brown Ryan Kerrigan Zach Brown D.J. Swearinger
Redskins Record 8-8 7-9 8-8 8-8
Playoff Finish None None None None

Writers 5-8:

Category Jamual Forrest Tom Garrett Chris Hess Hog Hunter
NFC East Giants Giants Redskins Giants
NFC North Packers Packers Packers Packers
NFC South Falcons Falcons Panthers Buccaneers
NFC West Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
NFC Wild Card Buccaneers Vikings Buccaneers Falcons
NFC Wild Card Cowboys Cowboys Giants Cowboys
NFC Champion Seahawks Packers Redskins Seahawks
AFC East Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
AFC North Steelers Steelers Ravens Steelers
AFC South Titans Texans Titans Texans
AFC West Raiders Raiders Chiefs Raiders
AFC Wild Card Chiefs Chiefs Raiders Chiefs
AFC Wild Card Ravens Ravens Steelers Titans
AFC Champion Patriots Patriots Steelers Patriots
Super Bowl Patriots Patriots Redskins Patriots
1st Pick in 2018 Jets Jets Cowboys Jets
Comeback POY Earl Thomas Rob Gronkowski Junior Galette J.J. Watt
Coach of Year Dirk Koetter Bill O'Brien Jay Gruden Bill Belichick
Offensive ROY Christian McCaffrey Christian McCaffrey Dalvin Cook Christian McCaffrey
Defensive ROY Myles Garrett Jonathan Allen Jonathan Allen Myles Garrett
Offensive POY David Johnson David Johnson Kirk Cousins David Johnson
Defensive POY Jadveon Clowney Von Miller Josh Norman Von Miller
MVP Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers Kirk Cousins Derek Carr
Redskins Off. POY Jamison Crowder Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins
Redskins Def. POY Jonathan Allen Josh Norman Josh Norman Josh Norman
Redskins Record 9-7 9-7 12-4 7-9
Playoff Finish None None SB Champion None

Writers 9-13:

Category Aaron Lesher Ken Meringolo Steve Shoup Bryan Stabbe Mark Tyler
NFC East Giants Redskins Giants Giants Giants
NFC North Packers Packers Packers Packers Packers
NFC South Panthers Falcons Buccaneers Falcons Buccaneers
NFC West Seahawks Cardinals Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
NFC Wild Card Saints Seahawks Falcons Buccaneers Falcons
NFC Wild Card Cowboys Cowboys Redskins Redskins Cowboys
NFC Champion Seahawks Cardinals Seahawks Packers Packers
AFC East Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots Patriots
AFC North Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers Steelers
AFC South Titans Titans Titans Titans Titans
AFC West Chiefs Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders
AFC Wild Card Chargers Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
AFC Wild Card Broncos Ravens Texans Ravens Texans
AFC Champion Patriots Steelers Steelers Patriots Patriots
Super Bowl Seahawks Cardinals Steelers Patriots Packers
1st Pick in 2018 Jets Jets Jets Jets Jets
Comeback POY J.J. Watt Adrian Peterson Josh Doctson J.J. Watt Keenan Allen
Coach of Year Anthony Lynn Bruce Arians Mike Tomlin John Harbaugh Mike McCarthy
Offensive ROY DeShone Kizer Christian McCaffrey Kareem Hunt Mike Williams Corey Davis
Defensive ROY Derek Barnett Jonathan Allen Jonathan Allen T.J. Watt Jamal Adams
Offensive POY Tom Brady David Johnson Antonio Brown Le'Veon Bell David Johnson
Defensive POY Jason Pierre-Paul J.J. Watt J.J. Watt Bobby Wagner Landon Collins
MVP Aaron Rodgers Tom Brady Russell Wilson Aaron Rodgers Aaron Rodgers
Redskins Off. POY Terrelle Pryor Kirk Cousins Kirk Cousins Jamison Crowder Kirk Cousins
Redskins Def. POY Zach Brown Josh Norman Jonathan Allen Josh Norman Josh Norman
Redskins Record 8-8 10-6 10-6 9-7 7-9
Playoff Finish None Divisional Divisional Wild Card None

And here’s how things actually played out:

Category Actual Result
NFC East Eagles
NFC North Vikings
NFC South Saints
NFC West Rams
NFC Wild Card Panthers
NFC Wild Card Falcons
NFC Champion Eagles
AFC East Patriots
AFC North Steelers
AFC South Jaguars
AFC West Chiefs
AFC Wild Card Titans
AFC Wild Card Bills
AFC Champion Patriots
Super Bowl Eagles
1st Pick in 2018 Browns
Comeback POY Keenan Allen
Coach of Year Sean McVay
Offensive ROY Alvin Kamara
Defensive ROY Marshon Lattimore
Offensive POY Todd Gurley
Defensive POY Aaron Donald
MVP Tom Brady
Redskins Off. POY Chris Thompson
Redskins Def. POY Ryan Kerrigan
Redskins Record 7-9
Playoff Finish None

Redskins Player of the Year Awards

Only 2 of the 27 categories that we made predictions on are subjective and not official: the Redskins’ Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year awards. I left this decision to you, the readers, in my final Stats and Snaps articles (offense & defense) of the 2017 season. Here were the results of the polls (only the top-3 in the voting are listed below).

Redskins Offensive Player of the Year:

Chris Thompson- 52%

Kirk Cousins- 30%

Brandon Scherff- 7%

Redskins Defensive Player of the Year:

Ryan Kerrigan- 65%

Zach Brown- 14%

Kendall Fuller- 10%

The outcome was not particularly close in either case and I wholeheartedly agree with the selections of Chris Thompson and Ryan Kerrigan.

It should also be noted that these results did not have a significant effect in determining which writers made the most correct picks. Let’s find out which predictions did have the greatest impact on the outcome of our contest and who came out on top when the smoke cleared on the season.

How’d We Do?

In a word, the answer to this question is: poorly. We averaged 4.8 correct picks per writer, our worst average in the 5-year history of this series. The Hogs Haven scribes posted record-low averages in every non-Redskins related category.

We did, however, have our second best showing when it came to making Skins-centric predictions. Hey, this is a Washington Redskins website, so at least we saved face there.

There was one writer who enjoyed a great all-around performance when it came to 2017 football fortune telling. In his first official year participating, Cadillactica finished in 1st place with 10 correct picks, 3 more than our 2nd-place finisher (Hog Hunter).

He made the most accurate playoff and Redskins picks and tied for 1st in the Super Bowl and NFL awards categories. Caddy and Mark Tyler (who tied for 3rd with Bill-in-Bangkok and Jennifer Filsinger) were the only ones that were right at least once in every category.

Rank Name Total # Correct Playoffs Super Bowl NFL Awards Redskins
1st Cadillactica 10 5 1 1 3
2nd Hog Hunter 7 4 1 0 2
t-3rd Bill (BiB) 6 4 1 0 1
t-3rd Jen Filsinger 6 3 1 0 2
t-3rd Mark Tyler 6 3 1 1 1
6th Aaron Lesher 5 3 1 0 1
t-7th James Dorsett 4 2 0 1 1
t-7th Jamual Forrest 4 2 1 0 1
t-7th Tom Garrett 4 2 1 0 1
t-10th Ken Meringolo 3 2 0 1 0
t-10th Steve Shoup 3 3 0 0 0
t-10th Bryan Stabbe 3 2 1 0 0
13th Chris Hess 2 2 0 0 0

Analyzing the Writers’ Picks

  • Coming into the season, Cadillactica believed that history would repeat itself; he selected the most repeat winners from the 2016 season. His strategy paid off, as 6 of his 10 winning choices were, in fact, repeats from last season. It didn’t go so well for Ken Meringolo and Steve Shoup, who went in the other direction by predicting the fewest 2016 repeat picks. Ken and Steve tied for 10th.

  • Making wild, outside-the-box predictions wasn’t a winning play either this year, either. For the third consecutive season, Chris Hess made the most unique picks among our writers; and in 2017, his gunslinger style of making predictions finally caught up to him. He went from 1st in 2015, to 8th last year and finally all the way down to last this season. None of his unique picks turned out to be accurate.

  • There were only three unique selections made that turned out to be right. Mark didn’t forget how good Keenan Allen was and had him bouncing back to win Comeback Player of the Year. Jennifer didn’t have much faith in positive regression and a ton of high draft picks pushing the Browns out of the NFL’s cellar. She had them finishing with the worst record in football for the second straight year. Cadillactica was the only one of us who didn’t sleep on Ryan Kerrigan like the rest of the world seems to do. Gabe picked Ryan to HBK his way to our Redskins’ DPOY award.

  • The only category all 13 of us correctly predicted was the AFC East. However, I can’t give Hogs Haven too much credit for choosing the Patriots to win that division for the 15th time in the last 17 years. We were also on point when it came to picking the AFC North (12 of 13, with Chris, of course, being the lone dissenter), the AFC champion (9 of 13) and the Redskins’ playoff finish (9 of 13). I wish we were wrong about the Redskins not making the playoffs, but we do deserve some credit for making the wise choice and not being homers.

  • Unfortunately, the only thing that we did unanimously with any consistency was to make incorrect picks. Not one of us hit on the following playoff/team categories: NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West, NFC Champion, AFC South and the Super Bowl Winner. You might have noticed a trend there. We were horrible when it came to making accurate predictions about what would happen with the NFC’s teams.

  • At least some of us probably should’ve seen the Vikings and Saints coming to a degree, but I don’t think you can down us too much for missing on the Rams winning the West and Eagles going from last place in the East to division, NFC and Super Bowl champions.

  • We didn’t set the world on fire when it came to calling our shot on the NFL’s 2017 award winners, either. We whiffed on Coach of the Year, both Rookie of the Year awards and both Player of the Year awards. In all, we only combined for a total of four correct awards predictions. Cadillactica, Ken and I had Tom Brady winning his third MVP, and Mark tabbed Keenan Allen for Comeback Player of the Year.

  • I’m disappointed that not a one of us had Aaron Donald bringing home DPOY hardware or the draft’s top corner, Marshon Lattimore, winning rookie of the year honors on the defensive side of the ball, but I don’t know how we could have seen Sean McVay, Todd Gurley and Alvin Kamara coming. Yes, most Redskins fans knew McVay was the real deal, but it’s still hard to fathom the youngest head coach in league history winning Coach of the Year in his first season. It was certainly another crazy season; they all are, and that’s the beauty of the NFL.

Closing Time

Let us know your thoughts on the 2017 season and our predictions.

Before you go, be the first to take a stab at some 2018 prognostications and make some predictions of your own in the polls. Feel free to call your shot on any other picks for next season in the comments section.

Also, be sure to join us again next year when we attempt to atone for our sin of not being able to see into the future lack of foresight.

Poll

How many games will the Washington Redskins win in the 2018 season?

This poll is closed

  • 27%
    6 or less
    (97 votes)
  • 14%
    7
    (52 votes)
  • 16%
    8
    (60 votes)
  • 22%
    9
    (80 votes)
  • 14%
    10
    (50 votes)
  • 4%
    11 or more
    (17 votes)
356 votes total Vote Now

Poll

Which team will win the Super Bowl at the conclusion of the 2018 NFL season?

This poll is closed

  • 34%
    Eagles
    (127 votes)
  • 9%
    Patriots
    (35 votes)
  • 5%
    Steelers
    (19 votes)
  • 10%
    Vikings
    (39 votes)
  • 5%
    Packers
    (20 votes)
  • 5%
    Saints
    (21 votes)
  • 9%
    Jaguars
    (34 votes)
  • 0%
    Seahawks
    (2 votes)
  • 10%
    Redskins
    (38 votes)
  • 9%
    Other
    (34 votes)
369 votes total Vote Now