The 5 o’clock club is published Wednesday to Saturday during the season, and aims to provide a forum for reader-driven discussion at a time of day when there isn’t much NFL news being published. Feel free to introduce topics that interest you in the comments below.
The Giants will be missing a key part of their offense on Sunday when they face the Redskins.
Odell Beckham Jr. will miss the Week 14 matchup as he deals with a bruised quadriceps, the team announced. He practiced on a limited basis during the week and the team determined Saturday he would not play in Sunday’s game. He first appeared on the team’s injury report Friday.
A quick peek backwards
Before we move forward to look at the challenge the Redskins will be facing when they visit the New York Giants on Sunday, let’s take a final quick look back at the Monday Night Philadelphia Eagles catastrophe.
Last weekend, ahead of the Philly game, 5 o’clock club readers were invited to vote on over-under predictions for the game. Let’s see how we did.
Predictions & actual results for last week’s Philadelphia Eagles game
800 yards of total offense in the Redskins-Eagles game on Monday night
- prediction: under (85%)
- actual: The fans were right. The Eagles managed to put up 436 yards of offense, but the Redskins mustered only 235, for a total of 671 yards of total offense for the game. 90 of the Redskins yards came on a single run by Adrian Peterson.
7.5 combined sacks for the Redskins and Eagles defenses
- prediction: over (55%)
- actual: The Eagles sacked Redskins quarterbacks 3 times.
The Redskins only hit Wentz three times on plays that weren’t penalized, and they did not record a single sack, which snaps their 18-game streak of games with at least one sack. The pressure they were able to generate didn’t have much of an effect, either. Wentz went 6-for-10 and threw for 82 yards and a touchdown on those plays.
Ioannidis has not played in the team’s last six quarters of action; the Redskins have not recorded a sack in the last six quarters. They had registered 22 sacks in the 19 quarters they played just prior to that. Call me crazy, but I think there may be a connection here.
The Redskins defense has fallen far from its early season performances. I had thought the long break between games would be enough to get them back on top, but the lack of offensive production left the defense out on the field for a long time, and the Eagles simply beat them up in the second half.
Which brings us to the next poll question.
The ToP winner has 31:05 on Monday night
- prediction: Over (80%)
- actual: The fans were right, but I doubt anyone is likely to have predicted the vast difference that played out in this game:
Turnover differential of +0.5 for the Redskins on Monday night
- prediction: over (66%)
- actual: There were no fumbles lost in this game, though the Redskins forced 3 fumbles and the Eagles forced two. Incredibly, all 5 fumbles were either recovered by the fumbling team or lost out of bounds.
The team has scored just one takeaway in their last two games combined after averaging 2.1 of them per game in their first ten contests.
Mark Sanchez with the ... wait for it ... Butt Fumble Recovery pic.twitter.com/Pg3g7N2giA— Cork Gaines (@CorkGaines) December 4, 2018
Each defense intercepted one pass. For the Redskins, the takeaway was generated by Josh Norman. Here’s a little about his game from James Dorsett:
With Dunbar sidelined, Norman resumed his shadow coverage duties. This week J-No was matched up with Alshon Jeffery, who he was largely responsible for holding to 3 receptions for 37 yards, 3 first downs and no touchdowns.
Norman didn’t cover Jeffrey in every single snap though, so his coverage stats are a bit different: 4 targets, 3 receptions, 27 yards, 2 first downs, 0 TDs and an interception (53.1 passer rating against).
Norman recorded his third pick of the year when he jumped Jeffery’s slant route and caught the ball 2 yards deep in the end zone; he returned the ball 40 yards out to the Washington 38. That INT ended a 70-yard Philadelphia drive and was the second-longest return of his career (46-yard INT return at Bucs in Week 4 of the 2015 season).
His 3 picks on the year is tied for the most he’s ever recorded in a single season with the Redskins and is just one shy of his career high of four (2015).
The net result was a turnover differential of ‘zero’ for both teams.
Tress Way pins the Eagles inside the 20 yard line 4 times during the Monday night game
- prediction: exactly 4 times (42%)
- actual: Let’s see what James Dorsett had to say about Tress Way
Tress Way punted the ball off a season-high tying six times for 290 yards and 271 net yards, both of which were also 2018 highs for him.
His 59-yarder that pinned the Eagles’ at their own 16-yard line was tied for his second-longest kick of the season. His other punt inside the 20 set the Eagles’ offense up at their own 15.
Way has pinned Washington’s opponents inside their 20-yard line multiple times in each of the last eight games. He still leads the league in punts inside the 20 (33) and inside-the-20 percentage (56.9%). Unfortunately, the Skins’ pathetic offense may prevent him from setting a record in the latter category.
So, Tress Way had another good day punting, but he managed just two kicks inside the Eagles’ 20 because the Redskins were punting a lot from deep in their own end of the field.
- prediction: Tress Way’s touchback-free streak continues (72%)
- actual: Tress Way continued his streak.
Which quarterback rushes for more yards in this game?
- prediction: Colt McCoy (50%) / Carson Wentz (41%)
- actual: The results here are very odd to interpret.
Carson Wentz rushed for -4 yards.
Colt McCoy didn’t rush at all. He didn’t rush for ‘zero’... he just didn’t rush.
So, I don’t know if that means that Wentz rushed for the most, since he was the only one who rushed, or that Colt did, because ‘zero’ is more than -4.
Anyway, Mark Sanchez led all quarterbacks with 8 yards on his only rush of the day.
It’s hard to imagine a game that had mobile quarterbacks like Wentz & McCoy ending the day with 5 combined rushes for 4 combined total yards.
Which Redskins player will have the most receptions against the Eagles?
- prediction: Jordan Reed (44%) / Trey Quinn (25%)
- actual: Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder tied with 4 receptions each in this game
I’m going to quote James Dorsett on this one:
Jordan Reed caught 4-of-5 targets for one first down and 21 yards, both of which were tied for season lows.
All of his first three receptions gained exactly 7 yards; the yardage on his last catch wasn’t counted because he lateraled the ball on the play.
Reed has nearly 20 receptions and 200 receiving yards [more] than the player ranked second on the team in both categories.
Jamison Crowder returned from an ankle injury that had sidelined him for six games and played on just under two-thirds of the offensive snaps (64%).
He caught all four of his targets, gained 36 yards on those plays and picked up a first down. All of his targets came on the team’s two field goal drives, with three of those looks coming on the second such series. The former Duke Blue Devil also forced a 13-yard pass inference penalty on a 3rd-and-11 pass.
It became apparent that Quinn wouldn’t suit up for this contest after he was downgraded to DNP for Saturday’s practice and arrived in Philly wearing a walking boot to protect his bad ankle.
Josh Doctson caught three of the five balls thrown his way and recorded team highs in both receiving yards (51) and first downs (2).
Zach Ertz gets 79 yards receiving against the Redskins
- prediction: Over (71%)
- actual: Ertz pulled down 83 yards on 9 receptions, leading all receivers in the game in reception total, but coming in second in receiving yards to Golden Tate, who accumulated 85 yards and a TD on 7 receptions.
Shifting the focus to the New York Giants
The Giants started the season badly and things stayed bad for a while. With a mid-season rally, the Giants gave their fans something to cheer about, and they have looked like a decent football team at times in the past month.
The Giants are out of the playoff picture, practically if not mathematically, but the players are now playing for pride, and that seems to be motivating some good performances.
A month ago, this looked like a game the Redskins should win. Now, many fans are just hoping the Redskins can compete.
Here are some receiving stats for the Giants reception leaders:
Across 12 games, OBJ and Barkley have combined for 151 total receptions. That’s an average of 12.6 per game.
OBJ and Barkley combine for 13.5 catches against the Redskins on Sunday
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Saquon Barkley has 602 receiving yards, and 954 rushing yards in 12 games this season. That’s a combined 1,556 yards from scrimmage, for an average of 129.7 scrimmage yards per game on 269 touches, for an average of 22.4 touches per game, and 5.8 yards per touch.
The Redskins played the Giants in New York on 28 October. In that game, Barkley ran 13 times for 38 yards, and caught 9 passes for 73 yards, giving him 22 touches for 111 yards, at an average of 5.04 yards per touch.
Saquon Barkley gets 131 scrimmage yards against the Redskins on Sunday
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Saquon Barkley averages 5.81 yards per touch against the Redskins on Sunday
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Over the past 3 games the Redskins defense has given up, in order, 320, 404, and 436 yards to the Texans, Cowboys and Eagles, respectively.
The Redskins had only given up 400-plus yards once in their first seven contests. They averaged 322.4 yards allowed in Weeks 1-8, which ranked fourth in the NFL.
Things, unfortunately, have changed since then. The defense has allowed 400 yards in four of the last five games. The 430.4-yards-per-game average between Weeks 9 and 13 ranks 31st in the league.
The Redskins give up 429 yards of total offense to the Giants on Sunday
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James Dorsett provided some interesting information about Mark Sanchez this week.
Per PFR’s index metrics, Mark Sanchez has the second-worst career era-adjusted interception percentage among qualifying passers in NFL history (84). Only Vince Ferragamo has a worse INT rate index than Sanchez (83).
The Sanchise also ranks bottom-12 all time in era-adjusted completion percentage (85, 8th worst), passer rating (86, 10th worst) and adjusted net yards per attempt (88, 11th worst).
Here are some Sanchez stats converted into ratios:
- One interception per 26.5 attempts
- Sanchez gets sacked an average of 2 times per game. The Redskins have given up 30 sacks in 12 games, for an average of 2.5 per game.
- Sanchez has (almost) a 1:1 TD:INT ratio, but hasn’t thrown a TD pass since 2015. He has only 3 career seasons in which he has thrown more TDs than INTs, but he went 18:15 in his 13 games for the Eagles in ‘14 & ‘15.
Sanchez will throw 2 interceptions on Sunday versus the Giants
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The Giants will get 3.5 sacks against the Redskins on Sunday
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Which will Mark Sanchez throw more of on Sunday?
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Exactly the same
James Dorsett told us a lot about Adrian Peterson’s performance against the Eagles:
Adrian Peterson (The Touchdown)- On his fourth carry of the night and his first snap in the second quarter, Adrian Peterson broke off a 90-yard touchdown run. It was the Redskins’ only touchdown in the game and their only run that gained more than 8 yards.
AP hit a top speed of 20.84 mph on the run, which was his fastest speed in the last three seasons and the fourth-fastest by any ball carrier in Week 13.
It was not only the longest run of Peterson’s career, it was the longest rushing play in franchise history, as well. Only four offensive touchdowns in team history have gained more yards.
Only three other players over the age of 30 have ever rushed for a 90-yard plus TD Peterson was 33 years and 257 days old, which makes him the oldest player to rush for a touchdown of at least 90 yards by almost a full year. This also makes him the oldest player to rush for multiple touchdowns of over 50-plus yards in a single season.
This was All Day’s 16th rushing score of 50 or more yards in his career, which pushes him ahead of Barry Sanders (15) and into sole possession of first place all-time. To give you an idea of how crazy that is, consider this: Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson and Marshall Faulk combined to score the same number of 50-plus yard TDs (16).
The touchdown was the 106th of Peterson’s career, which ties him with the great Jim Brown for fifth in NFL history. He is five scores away from passing Walter Payton for fourth all-time.
He gained more yards on that one carry than he did in his last two games combined (86 yards) and than he has in his four worst rushing performances this season (78 yards).
Adrian Peterson (The Rest)- The 90-yarder happened; don’t forget that when you read this section. However, if you were to subtract that run, then Peterson would’ve had a terrible game. Although, this may have something to do with the fact that he inexplicably only got five more carries after his touchdown.
He had a total of 8 yards on his other eight carries (1.0 YPC) and was not targeted in the passing game. AP was able to move the chains on a pair of 2nd-and-short runs, but he only gained more than 3 yards on two of his rushes (90 and 6) and lost yardage on three carries. Peterson leads the league by five in number of rushes that have lost yards.
Nevertheless, his 90-yard trip to the end zone was enough to earn him a season and team-high 82.4 PFF grade, his best rating since the 2015 season.
His 98-yard performance gave the dubious distinction of being one of two players to have ever scored on a 90-plus-yard run and to have not hit 100 yards in a game. In 1994, Herschel Walker also gained 98 yards in the same game he took a 91-yarder to the house in.
Peterson is tied with Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott for the most games with more than 95 yards rushing this season (6).
He currently sits at 856 yards on the season, which puts him just 144 yards (36 yards per game) away from becoming the fifth player in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards rushing at the age of 33 or older. John Riggins (twice), John Henry Johnson (twice), Franco Harris and Frank Gore also accomplished that feat.
His 1,033 yards from scrimmage and 8 touchdowns are either twice as many as what the player in second place on the team has or roughly that.
The Giants are giving up 125 yards per game to opposing rushers on 28 rushing attempts per game, for an average per attempt of 4.42 ypa.
Peterson has 856 yards in 12 games this season, for an average of 71.3 ypg, but he has been a bit feast-or-famine, rushing for 90 or more yards 6 times, but getting over 51 yards only once in the other 6 games.
Adrian Peterson rushes for 89.5 yards against the Giants on Sunday
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