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The Saturday 5 O’Clock Club (rebranded): predicting stats for the Tampa Bay game

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Let's try this again...

If you think you've seen this article before, you probably have. I thought a lot of people may have skipped it because of the title, so I changed it and re-published it. The content hasn't changed.

Jay Gruden talking about this week’s offensive line:

“Chase will be the center for sure. Bergstrom will probably have to start out at guard, I would think. Then, left guard we’re still deciding right there. It looks like Cooper could have the nod. I think the big thing is, we’re waiting to see where Morgan’s at [as far as his injury]. With Morgan and Ty, hopefully they’ll be the tackles. But if Morgan can’t go then we probably have to put [Geron] Christian in at tackle and move some people around. So, we’ll wait and see.”

“We’re hoping the experience that Jonathan [Cooper] has will help and Bergstom’s played a lot – obviously Chase – and hopefully we get Morgan [Moses] and Ty [Nsekhe] back. So that’s still pretty solid if you ask me. When you’re out there on the field, you’ll get a better gauge of how they’re doing. How we’re protecting. How we’re run blocking. How they’re handling the heat and the drives and the communication. Time will tell. I’m anxious to see it.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Washington Redskins Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images

“They look good in practice. They’ve done a great job – hats off to the coaches – Coach Callahan and Phil [Assistant Offensive Line Coach Phil Rauscher] obviously for getting them ready to go. But we’ll see.”

“I think playing in 83 degree heat for the first time could take its toll on them, but we’ll have some other guys available if it is an issue. We have to wait and see, but I’m optimistic that they’ve picked it up mentally. That’s half the battle. Now physically on a 7-, 8-, 10-play drive, we’ll see where they’re at.”

“It’s all hard. You’re hoping that experience will take over and the knowledge that they gained in the last four or five days will carry over to game day and they can handle – just the mental part of it is one thing.”

“Now the physical part you’re handling with stunts and the movement of the defensive lines and the different fronts that they give you. Is it a jam front? It’s over, it’s under; there’s a lot of different things that take place with the line calls. We have a fairly smart group I believe, so I think they’ll handle it. But going out and executing the double teams and getting up to the next level and the stunts, we’ll see how they do. We have confidence they’ll do fine.”

Poll

3.5 Redskins OL false starts

This poll is closed

  • 54%
    over
    (139 votes)
  • 45%
    under
    (115 votes)
254 votes total Vote Now

Tampa Bay’s top ranked passing attack

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the No. 1 ranked passing offense in the NFL, averaging 356.6 yards per game passing — and that’s an offense that has featured two different starting quarterbacks.

In Week 4, Fitztragic was benched in favor of Winston; in Week 8 Winston was benched for Fitzmagic. Here are the Buccaneers’ total passing yards and points by game this season:

  • 417 yds - Fitz (Win - 48 points)
  • 402 yds - Fitz (Win - 27 points)
  • 411 yds - Fitz (Loss - 27 points)
  • 271 yds - Fitz - Winston (Loss - 10 points)
  • 395 yds - Winston (Loss - 29 points)
  • 365 yds - Winston (Win - 23 points)
  • 470 yds - Winston - Fitz (Loss - 34 points)
  • 243 yds - Fitz (Loss - 28 points)
NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa Bay is attempting more than 41 passes per game, and averaging 8.9 ypa.

They are ranked 8th in points per game, at 28.6. Five teams are averaging 30 ppg or more. They are: Kansas City, 36.3; New Orleans, 34.9; LA Rams, 33.2; Pittsburgh, 31; New England, 30.

Poll

350 passing yards for Tampa Bay

This poll is closed

  • 53%
    over
    (145 votes)
  • 46%
    under
    (125 votes)
270 votes total Vote Now

Poll

27.5 points scored by Tampa Bay

This poll is closed

  • 37%
    over
    (101 votes)
  • 62%
    under
    (166 votes)
267 votes total Vote Now

Washington’s pillagers

The Redskins are tied for 11th with 23 total sacks. Since they have played 8 games, they are averaging about 2.9 sacks per game, but the production has been uneven. They have recorded at least one sack in every game this season, and have recorded multiple sacks 6 times.

  • Cardinals = 2 (Ioannidis, Anderson)
  • Colts = 1 (Ioannidis)
  • Packers = 4 (Payne, Allen (2), Ioannidis)
  • Saints = 2 (Kerrigan, Payne)
  • Panthers = 1 (Swearinger)
  • Cowboys = 4 (Kerrigan (2), Allen, Anderson)
  • Giants = 7 (Ioannidis (2.5), Kerrigan (1.5), JH-C, Payne, Allen)
  • Falcons = 2 (Ioannidis, Kerrigan)
Washington Redskins v Tampa Bay Buccaneers Photo by Cliff McBride/Getty Images

Sack totals by player

  • Ioannidis 6.5
  • Kerrigan 5.5
  • Allen 4
  • Payne 3
  • Anderson 2
  • Swearinger 1
  • Harvey-Clemons 1

Poll

2.5 sacks by the Redskins defense

This poll is closed

  • 87%
    over
    (230 votes)
  • 12%
    under
    (33 votes)
263 votes total Vote Now

Poll

1.25 sacks by the combination of Payne, Allen, Ioannidis

This poll is closed

  • 88%
    over
    (226 votes)
  • 11%
    under
    (28 votes)
254 votes total Vote Now

The right arm of Alex Smith in 2018

In the Redskins 5 wins, Alex Smith has thrown for a total of 995 yards, averaging 199 yards per game through the air when the Redskins put up a “W”.

Alex has tallied 873 yards in the team’s 3 losses, averaging 291 yards per game — nearly 100 yards more per game!

Atlanta Falcons v Washington Redskins Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Alex’s highest passing yardage in a game this season was 306 against Atlanta last week, while his lowest totals were 178 yards in each of the two division games versus Dallas and New York, and 163 against the Panthers. In that 3-game win streak, Alex threw for a combined 519 yards.

Poll

219 passing yards by Alex Smith

This poll is closed

  • 74%
    over
    (186 votes)
  • 25%
    under
    (65 votes)
251 votes total Vote Now

Adrian Peterson produces big, except when he doesn’t

Adrian Peterson’s rushing stats are the corollary of Alex Smith’s; when the Redskins win, Peterson piles up stats, but when they lose, Peterson gets stonewalled.

Here are AD’s rushing yards in the 5 Redskins wins: 96, 120, 97, 99, 149. Peterson is 8 yards away from having five 100-yard+ games in those wins, and he’s averaging over 112 yards per game rushing when the Redskins win.

Carolina Panthers v Washington Redskins Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Redskins losses have been a completely different story. Peterson has rushed for 20, 6, and 17 yards in the 3 losses — an average of about 14 yards per game!

The difference isn’t just in total yards — Peterson is less successful per rush in losses. When the Redskins lose, Peterson is picking up about 1.8 yards per attempt.

In the 5 wins, he has 112 rushing attempts, with an average of almost exactly 5 yards per carry.

Peterson needs one more rushing touchdown to tie John Riggins for 6th place on the all-time career total list, and 3 more TDs to equal Jim Brown’s current 5th place ranking.

He needs 380 yards to pass Eric Dickerson for 8th place on the career rushing yardage list.

Poll

66 rushing yards by Adrian Peterson

This poll is closed

  • 71%
    over
    (184 votes)
  • 28%
    under
    (72 votes)
256 votes total Vote Now

Protecting the ball

The Redskins defense has forced 12 fumbles this season, turning 7 of them into takeaways, which put them in a tie for 3rd in the NFL.

Seven INTs is good for 14th(t) in the league.

The total of 14 takeaways for the Redskins, when compared to the 7 turnovers given up by the offense, leaves the Redskins ranked 4th in the NFL in turnover differential at +7.

Minnesota Vikings v Washington Redskins Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images

Turnovers have been a key part of the winning formula for the Redskins, as the only game in which Washington had a ‘minus’ turnover margin was the loss to the New Orleans Saints, though in last week’s loss to the Falcons, the teams were even at 1 interception apiece, marking only the second game this season in which the Redskins didn’t tally a positive differential.

The Redskins have forced at least one turnover in every game this season.

Poll

1.5 forced turnovers by Redskins defense

This poll is closed

  • 73%
    over
    (164 votes)
  • 26%
    under
    (60 votes)
224 votes total Vote Now

Kickoffs

Dustin Hopkins has had 39 kickoffs this season, with 31 touchbacks (79.5%). He is averaging 4.88 kickoffs per game.

In the same number of games, Chandler Catanzaro has kicked off 47 times, for an average of 5.88 kickoffs per game. He has had 39 touchbacks, for an average of 82.9%.

Tampa Bay’s opponents are averaging 22 yards per return on 9 kickoff returns.

Redskins opponents are averaging 22.5 yards per return on 8 kickoff returns.

Hopkins is 14 for 16 on field goal attempts this season (87.5%), while Catanzaro is 10 for 12 (83.3%).

Dustin Hopkins has kicked 16 extra points without a miss, while the Tampa Bay kicker has booted 23 out of 27 attempts for an accuracy rate of just 85.2%. He has missed an extra point in four different games this season, including 3 in a row from Weeks 6-8.

Poll

9.5 total kickoffs in the game for both teams combined

This poll is closed

  • 51%
    over
    (89 votes)
  • 48%
    under
    (84 votes)
173 votes total Vote Now

Has Maurice Harris broken out?

Career receiving statistics for Maurice Harris in his first two years as a Redskin:

2016 8 rec - 66 yards - 0 TD

2017 4 rec - 62 yards - 1 TD

Receiving statistics for Maurice Harris versus the Falcons:

10 rec - 124 yards - 0 TDs

Poll

5.5 receptions for the Redskins’ reception leader (whoever it happens to be) for this game

This poll is closed

  • 82%
    over
    (168 votes)
  • 17%
    under
    (36 votes)
204 votes total Vote Now

Remaining schedule:

Poll

8.5 wins for the Redskins by the end of this season

This poll is closed

  • 71%
    over
    (159 votes)
  • 28%
    under
    (64 votes)
223 votes total Vote Now