The History of McCloughan Draft Day Trades & Value

It's no secret that Scot McCloughan wants to trade down in this year's draft to acquire more picks.  He did it last year twice and if he wants to hit his goal of adding four more selections then he'll need to trade down two or three times this year as well.

With that in mind, I thought it would be interesting to look at all of the trades that he's made in the past both to give us an idea of what kind of trades he makes and what kind of value he gets out of them in terms of draft picks and the actual players that he eventually selects with them.

In order to determine the value of the picks I used several draft value charts and tools.  Of course I used the old Jimmy Johnson trade chart.  However, we need to take those numbers with a grain of salt because they are based on the history of draft-day trading by teams and not the average of the actual value of the picks and the players selected with those picks.  Most of those trades also took place in a time when the NFL did not have a salary cap, free agency and when the draft was 12 rounds.

I also used Chase Stuart's (proprietor of Football Perspective) draft value chart that uses actual draft pick value based on the players selected at each pick according to approximate value, the median games started metric for each pick in Rotoviz's draft pick trade calculator and the values given to each pick by Smash Draft.com (the self-proclaimed #1NFL draft pick calculator on the internet).  These metrics give us a much better idea of the actual historical value of each pick.

I did not discount the value of future year picks even though teams obviously do when they make these deals.  I've looked around and researched it, and in my opinion there is really not a standard or a clean way of doing it.

For the actual value of the players I used Pro Football Reference's Career approximate value metric.  I listed the total career AV for each player up to this point and not just the value that the team that originally drafted the player got out of them.

I included all of the trades that were made by a McCloughan team when he was a personnel executive (Director of College Scouting, De Facto General Manager, General Manager and Senior Personnel Executive).  This gives us a bigger sample size and allows us to look at all of the trades that were made when he was a key decision-maker in his team's war rooms.

I did, however, delineate what his role was at the time of each trade, and at the end of this article I looked at his trends and results both as an executive in all capacities (including as GM) and just as a general manager.

I did not include his time in Green Bay because a) he was only a regional scout then, b) they really didn't make that many draft-day trades during his time there and c) it was about 20 years ago.

The trades are listed in order of McCloughan's team's original pick (i.e. the highest pick that was traded by his team in the deal).  The year that each trade was made in and the teams involved in them can be found in the header of each trade table.

1st Rounder Trades

2001 - Exec Round 1 Trade Down (Seahawks - 49ers)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	9, 88, 222		7, 191		1 Pick	3 to 2
Rounders	1st, 3rd, 7th		1st, 6th
Jimmy Johnson	1532.6		1515		17.6	1.01
CS Approx Value	27.3		23.4		3.9	1.17
Median GS	98.5		81.2		17.3	1.21
Smash Value	83.5		70.2		13.3	1.19
Wins (Out of 4)	4		0		4	4 to 0

Trade Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

Actual Players Selected: Koren Robinson, Heath Evans and Dennis Norman (66 AV) for Andre Carter and Menson Holloway (76 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: 49ers

• A very good trade in terms of draft pick value that fell just short in terms of player value. 
  

2012 - Exec Round 1 Trade Down (Seahawks - Eagles)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	15, 114, 172		12		2 Picks	3 to 1
Rounders	1st, 4th, 6th		1st
Jimmy Johnson	1138.6		1200		-61.4	0.95
CS Approx Value	23.6		18.8		4.8	1.26
Median GS	83.6		72.3		11.3	1.16
Smash Value	73		55.2		17.8	1.32
Wins (Out of 4)	3 (AV, GS, SV)		1 (JJ)		2	3 to 1

Trade Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

Actual Players Selected: Bruce Irvin, Jaye Howard and Jeremy Lane (46 AV) for Fletcher Cox (38 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

• Cox is easily the best player in the deal, but McCloughan won with quantity over quality.  This makes two first round trades where Scot's team only went down by a few spots.
  

2002 - Exec Round 1 Trade Down (Seahawks - Packers)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	28, 60		20, 156		0 Picks	2 to 2
Rounders	1st, 2nd		1st, 5th
Jimmy Johnson	960		879		81	1.09
CS Approx Value	21.9		17.9		4	1.22
Median GS	87.5		69.6		18.0	1.26
Smash Value	66.1		54.9		11.2	1.20
Wins (Out of 4)	4		0		4	4 to 0

Trade Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

Actual Players Selected: Jeremy Stevens and Anton Palepoi (24 AV) for Javon Walker and Aaron Kampman (108 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: Packers

• A solid win in terms of draft value for McCloughan's Hawks, but a blowout loss in terms of player value. The 20th pick is just one slot away from the Redskins' pick and 28 is just about where the team would like to trade down to, so if there's a trade that his teams made that might reflect what you might see tonight it's this one.  I've also heard that one of the most famous draft value studies (Massey and Thaler) found that the bottom of the first round is where the most value in the draft is.
  

2007 - GM Round 1 Trade Up (49ers - Patriots)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	28		7 (Future), 110		Minus 1 Pick	1 to 2
Rounders	1st		1st (Future), 4th
Jimmy Johnson	660		1574		-914	0.42
CS Approx Value	13.4		26.9		-13.5	0.50
Median GS	56.3		88.6		-32.3	0.64
Smash Value	39.9		80.1		-40.2	0.50
Wins (Out of 4)	0		4		Minus 4

Trade Value Winner: Patriots

Actual Players Selected: Joe Staley (76 AV) for John Bowie and pick that was ultimately used to acquire Jerrod Mayo and Shawn Crable (59 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: McCloughan (49ers)

• Possibly McCloughan's worst trade from a draft pick value stand point, but when it came to selecting the right players he came out on top with his selection of Joe Staley.  I arguably shouldn't have even counted the trade for Mayo because the Patriots used an additional pick to make that deal happen.
  

2nd Rounder Trades

2007 - GM Round 2 Future Picks Trade Up (49ers - Colts)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	29 (Future), 126		42		2 Picks	2 to 1
Rounders	1st (Future), 4th		2nd
Jimmy Johnson	686		480		206.0	1.43
CS Approx Value	17		10.8		6.2	1.57
Median GS	63.6		44.2		19.4	1.44
Smash Value	52.1		32.6		19.5	1.60
Wins (Out of 4)	4		0		4	4 to 0

Trade Value Winner: 49ers (McCloughan)

Actual Players Selected: Kentwan Balmer and Dashon Goldson (60 AV) for Tony Ugoh (20 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: McCloughan (49ers)

• The trade value would probably flip if this pick was discounted.  Balmer was an absolute bust, but former Redskin Dashon Goldson saved the day for Scoty Mac in this case.
  

2009 - GM Round 2 Future Picks Trade Up (49ers - Panthers)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	17 (Future)		43, 111		Minus 1 Pick	1 to 2
Rounders	1st (Future)		2nd, 4th
Jimmy Johnson	950		542		408	1.75
CS Approx Value	16.9		16.2		0.7	1.04
Median GS	67.1		54.0		13.1	1.24
Smash Value	48.9		47.3		1.6	1.03
Wins (Out of 4)	4		0		Minus 4	4 to 0

Trade Value Winner: 49ers (McCloughan)

Actual Players Selected: Mike Iupati (59 AV) for Everette Brown and Mike Goodson (13 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: McCloughan (49ers)

• Another case where discounting would affect the value, but nevertheless this was a big win for the 49ers.  McCloughan left a few weeks before the actual pick of Iupati was made, but draft boards are usually set by then, so I like to think he had a big hand in this pick.  Iupati is a McCloughan player if I've ever seen one too.
  

2012 - Exec Round 2 Trade Down (Seahawks - Jets)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	47, 154, 232		43		2 Picks	3 to 1
Rounders	2nd, 5th, 7th		2nd
Jimmy Johnson	459.8		470		-10.2	0.98
CS Approx Value	12.6		10.6		2	1.19
Median GS	46.0		43.4		2.6	1.06
Smash Value	41.6		32.2		9.4	1.29
Wins (Out of 4)	3 (AV, GS, SV)		1 (JJ)		2	3 to 1

Trade Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

Actual Players Selected: Bobby Wagner, Jaye Howard and Jeremy Lane (52 AV) for Stephen Hill (4 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

• What a huge difference in player quality here.
  

2013 - Exec Round 2 Trade Down (Seahawks - Ravens)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	62, 165, 199		56		2 Picks	3 to 1
Rounders	2nd, 5th, 6th		2nd
Jimmy Johnson	321.2		340		-18.8	0.94
CS Approx Value	11.3		9		2.3	1.26
Median GS	38.1		33.9		4.2	1.12
Smash Value	38		27.4		10.6	1.39
Wins (Out of 4)	3 (AV, GS, SV)		1 (JJ)		2	3 to 1

Trade Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

Actual Players Selected: Christine Michael and pick that was ultimately used to acquire Jesse Williams (8 AV) for Arthur Brown (2AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

• Another case where the antiquated Jimmy Johnson trade chart had the value wrong.  Marginal players were selected all around here, but Michael is the only one of them that has really made any sort of an impact.  Also, this is the fifth time on this list where we've seen McCloughan's team only trade down between two and eight spots.  That's 33% percent of his trades.  Keep that in mind for tonight and this weekend.
  

2011 - Exec Round 2 Trade Down (Seahawks - Lions)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	75, 107, 154, 205		57, 157, 209		1 Pick	4 to 3
Rounders	3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th		2nd, 5th, 7th
Jimmy Johnson	334.2		366.4		-32.2	0.91
CS Approx Value	15.1		11.9		3.2	1.27
Median GS	42.9		41.9		1.1	1.03
Smash Value	51		39.6		11.4	1.29
Wins (Out of 4)	3 (AV, GS, SV)		1 (JJ)		2	3 to 1

Trade Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

Actual Players Selected: John Moffit, Kris Durham, Richard Sherman and Lazarius Levingston (52 AV) for Mikel Leshoure, Doug Hogue and Johnny Culbreath (7AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

A 3-to-1 trade value win (only loss according to the JJ chart) and using one of the picks to acquire one of the best (and most hated) players of the league in Richard Sherman can do all the talking for me here.

3rd Rounder Trades

2015 - GM Round 3 Trade Down (Redskins - Seahawks)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	95, 112, 167, 181		69		3 Picks	4 to 1
Rounders	3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th		3rd
Jimmy Johnson	233.6		245		-11.4	0.95
CS Approx Value	13.7		7.6		6.1	1.80
Median GS	33.6		25.9		7.7	1.30
Smash Value	46.8		23.6		23.2	1.98
Wins (Out of 4)	3 (AV, GS, SV)		1 (JJ)		2	3 to 1

Trade Value Winner: McCloughan (Redskins)

Actual Players Selected: Matt Jones, Arie Koundijo, Kyshoen Jarrett and pick that was ultimately used to acquire Evan Spencer and a 2016 6th round pick (8 AV) for Tyler Lockett (9 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: This is technically currently a Seahawks win, but it's really too early to call, especially considering that the Redskins haven't even used all the picks they acquired from this deal yet.

• McCloughan totally crushed it in terms of draft value with this trade, but the actual player value might be a different story.  This will be a very interesting trade to follow as time goes on.  Jones struggled last year -but the potential is there, we don't really know what the team has in Koundijo yet and now Jarrett's future is in doubt.  We also won't even know all the players on the Redskins' side until Saturday either.  However, Tyler Lockett is good enough to carry the day for the Seahawks all on his own.

4th Rounder Trades

2005 - GM Round 4 Trade Up (49ers - Eagles)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	94		102, 175		Minus 1 Pick	1 to 2
Rounders	3rd		4th, 6th
Jimmy Johnson	124		113.4		10.6	1.09
CS Approx Value	5.7		6.8		-1.1	0.84
Median GS	15.0		16.7		-1.7	0.90
Smash Value	18.1		23.5		-5.4	0.77
Wins (Out of 4)	1 (JJ)		3 (AV, GS, SV)		Minus 3	1 to 3

Trade Value Winner: Eagles

Actual Players Selected: Adam Snyder (41 AV) for Sean Considine and Anttaj Hawthorne (17 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: McCloughan (49ers)

• Another trade up that lost value where the resulting selection ended up saving the day.
  

5th Rounder Trades

2003 - 5th Round Trade Down (Seahawks - Packers)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	165, 203		147		1 Pick	2 to 1
Rounders
Jimmy Johnson	35.6		32.6		3	1.09
CS Approx Value	2.9		2.8		0.1	1.04
Median GS	8.0		6.1		2.0	1.32
Smash Value	12.1		10		2.1	1.21
Wins (Out of 4)	4		0		4	4 to 0

Trade Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

Actual Players Selected: Chris Davis and pick that was ultimately used to acquire veteran Norman Hand (6 AV) for James Lee (1 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: McCloughan (Seahawks)

• I hesitated counting the value accrued from a veteran here, but it seemed like the best way to go about it.  Anyways, it's another win for McC and company.
  

2013 - Exec Round 5 Trade Up (Seahawks - Lions)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	137		165, 199		Minus 1 Pick	1 to 2
Rounders	5th		5th, 6th
Jimmy Johnson	37.5		37.2		0.3	1.01
CS Approx Value	3.3		3		0.3	1.10
Median GS	6.8		8.1		-1.3	0.84
Smash Value	11.3		12.4		-1.1	0.91
Wins (Out of 4)	2 (JJ, AV)		2 (GS, SV)		0	2 to 2

Trade Value Winner: Lions

Actual Players Selected: Jesse Williams (0 AV) for Sam Martin and Theo Riddick (19 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: Lions

• A rare double loss for Scot.  At least the picks he gave up were of the late-round variety.
  

2015 - GM Round 5 Trade Down (Redskins - Saints)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	187, Future 187		167		1 Pick	2 to 1
Rounders	6th, 6th		5th
Jimmy Johnson	33.2		24.6		8.6	1.35
CS Approx Value	2.6		2		0.6	1.30
Median GS	7.1		4.7		2.4	1.50
Smash Value	11.4		7.7		3.7	1.48
Wins (Out of 4)	4		0		4	4 to 0

Trade Value Winner: McCloughan (Redskins)

Actual Players Selected: Evan Spencer and 2016 6th Round Pick (0 AV) for Damian Swann (1 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: This is technically currently a Saints win, but it's really too early to call, especially considering that the Redskins haven't even used all the picks they acquired from this deal yet.

• For counting purposes this one goes to New Orleans, but this is definitely a big "TBD" in my book because our fearless leader has been known to make magic with is late round choices.
  

7th Rounder Trades

2006 - GM Round 7 Trade Up (49ers - Jaguars)
Category	Received		Traded		Difference	Ratio
Pick #s	197		213, 236		Minus 1 Pick	1 to 2
Rounders	6th		7th, 7th
Jimmy Johnson	12.6		6.2		6.4	2.03
CS Approx Value	1.0		0.5		0.5	2.00
Median GS	3.2		3.2		0.1	1.03
Smash Value	4.7		4.8		-0.1	0.98
Wins (Out of 4)	3 (JJ, AV, GS)		1 (SV)		2	3 to 1

Trade Value Winner: McCloughan (49ers)

Actual Players Selected: Melvin Oliver (6 AV) for James Wyche and Dee Webb (1 AV)

Actual Player Value Winner: McCloughan (49ers)

Personnel Executive Trade Summary

# of Trades	15
# of Trade Downs	9
# of Trade Ups	6
Difference	3
Ratio	1.50

• Fifty percent more trading down sounds good to me.
  

By Rd	# of Trades	Trade Down	Trade Up	Difference
1st	4	3	1	2
2nd	5	3	2	1
3rd	1	1	0	1
4th	1	0	1	-1
5th	3	2	1	1
6th	0	0	0	0
7th	1	0	1	-1

• There has definitely been a lot of trading in the first two rounds for McCloughan's clubs over the course of all of his years as an executive.
  

All Executive	Received	Traded	Difference	Ratio	Win %
# of Picks	33	24	9	1.38	63%
Jimmy Johnson	7518.9	7825.4	-306.5	0.96	60%
CS Approx Value	188.3	168.2	20.1	1.12	87%
Median GS	657.3	593.6	63.73	1.11	80%
Smash Value	587.2	521.5	65.7	1.13	80%
Player Value	504	375	129	1.34	67%

• That's an average value gain of 1.17 on the dollar and an average winning percentage of 73%.  Yeah, I'll take that.
  

General Manager Trade Summary

# of Trades	7
# of Trade Downs	2
# of Trade Ups	5
Difference	-3
Ratio	0.40

• Believe it or not, but Scot actually did a lot more trading up than trading down as the GM of the 49ers.
  

By Rd	# of Trades	Trade Down	Trade Up	Difference
1st	1	0	1	-1
2nd	2	0	2	-2
3rd	1	1	0	1
4th	1	0	1	-1
5th	1	1	0	1
6th	0	0	0	0
7th	1	0	1	-1

• Too many rounds in the red for my liking, but it looks like he is starting to change his philosophy with more trade downs (see last year and his statements about trading down in this year's draft).
  

GM	Received	Traded	Difference	Ratio	Win %
# of Picks	12	11	1	1.09	43%
Jimmy Johnson	2699.4	2985.2	-285.8	0.90	71%
CS Approx Value	70.3	70.8	-0.5	0.99	71%
Median GS	245.8	237.2	8.66	1.04	71%
Smash Value	221.9	219.6	2.3	1.01	57%
Player Value	250	120	130	2.08	71%

• The 2-to-1 player value ratio makes his total average ratio (1.19) even higher then it was as an executive in all capacities (including GM).  His average winning percentage dropped by about 9 points (64%) when we look at his performance as a GM, but 64% is nothing to sneeze at either. 
  

If you win more than sixty percent of the time in just about any competitive professional setting - no less in one of the biggest sports leagues in the history of the world - then you are pretty damn good at what you do, if not one of the best at it.  Scot McCloughan is both.