Cut me some slack, Week 1 is the hardest to predict. Last week had its fair share of hits and misses. Shane Vereen, Dennis Pitta, Jeremy Maclin, and Golden Tate all came up big for me and, of course, Peyton was Peyton. A bad whiff on Doug Martin and suggesting to avoid Le'Veon Bell and A.J. Green were regretful. Here's a link to my H2H win if you care (please excuse my continued use of a 15-year old running username). I decided to ease my way in to Week 1 and will probably continue to do so until about Week 4 when I'll start investing more funds into the games. There's just too much uncertainty with how good/bad defenses are with only one week in the books.
***Note***: I'm not including Thursday games. I tend to avoid those because of the uncertainty with injury statuses for Sunday's slate.
QB Robert Griffin III ($7,800)- Let's start this off with a bang. The Jaguars are coming to town, and the last time I checked they don't have J.J. Watt. The Jags are expected to be a better defense than they have been in years past but Philadelphia carved them up in the 2nd half last week. After a disappointing Week 1 performance on offense, Jay Gruden will likely open up the playbook and take more shots downfield. It's rare you get this kind of matchup, with the kind of boom-potential RGIII has at the 15th rated QB spot. Monitor the health of Jaguars safety Jonathan Cyprien and running back Toby Gerhart (one unproductive offense leads to more chances for the other).
WR Kendall Wright ($6,100)- This is a pretty popular pick, and that makes me nervous. But guys get notoriety for a reason. Any QB/WR playing the Cowboys deserves your attention. Much has been made of Justin Hunter getting more targets (8 to 7) and yards (63 to 46) than Wright in Week 1 but Wright hauled in twice as many receptions (6 to 3) and got a redzone target he cashed in for a TD. I think Wright is worth the $400 extra dollars over his teammate Hunter. A Texas native himself, Wright will likely have a pep in his step in Tennessee's home opener against Dallas which will likely be a shoot-out.
WR Michael Crabtree ($6,500)- Gameday is his birthday! Crabtree turns 27 on Sunday, and what better way to celebrate than a touchdown or two against a Bears defense that really shouldn't scare anyone anymore. The 49ers will be unveiling their brand new stadium under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football. After getting on the Cowboys early and often in Week 1, the flow of the game hurt Crabtree's targets. Look for that to change in what will likely be a close, high scoring game.
WR Jarrett Boykin ($4,900)- This one is more of a gut feeling. Boykin was targeted a whopping '0' times against Seattle. He was in on 79% of the team's snaps but was used as a decoy for Richard Sherman's side of the field. Coming off an embarrassing loss with a week and a half to prepare, expect Aaron Rodgers to come out firing against the Jets in Lambeau Field. The Jets will likely be without top cornerback Dee Milliner for the 2nd straight week so a lot of the coverage attention will be focused on Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, paving the way for Boykin to be a sneaky play. Monitor the health of Eddie Lacy as his absence may increase Boykin's usage.
RB Terrance West ($5,300)- I'm spending my money on RBs this week but Terrance West is such an intriguing play at that price that I may have to create a new lineup around him. Ben Tate is out and West is the next man up. The rookie RB has big-play potential up the wazoo. I don't like the Browns using the bigger Isaiah Crowell but I think the favorable matchup against New Orleans should help feed both mouths.
RB LeSean McCoy ($9,200)- Eagles at Colts. Take the over in this matchup. You know the scoreboard will light up in Indianapolis this week, so you might as well get the best offensive weapon on the field. McCoy had an off week against the Jaguars and still got 14.5 points. Look for him to get a ton of targets and touches with a score or two.
RB Giovanni Bernard ($7,800)- So much for Jeremy Hill. Gio got 20 touches but more importantly he had 10 targets in the passing game. TEN! With WR Marvin Jones sidelined and TE Tyler Eifert now out for a while in Cincy, look for Hue Jackson to find a way to get his home-run threat the ball in any way possible. Great matchup against Atlanta this week.
TE Julius Thomas ($8,100)- Most expensive TE, and deservedly so. If you loved him headed into week 1, you should be gushing at his potential in week 2. With the expensive guys you just need to convince yourself to trust them. Julius Thomas is Peyton's guy in the redzone. That should be enough. Peyton clearly loves the mismatch Julius creates against LB's, and this week they get a Chiefs team scrambling to fill the void of their best linebacker Derrick Johnson. Don't worry if Welker is eligible to play or not.
QB Matthew Stafford ($9,300)- The 3rd most expensive QB on a short-week going to Carolina. STAY AWAY! This has all the makings of a classic Stafford letdown. I learned my lesson last week betting against the Carolina D. Won't make that mistake again.
RB Knowshon Moreno ($7,000)- Knowshon ran angry against the Pats last week. However, I wouldn't bet on him keeping it up. He received the 2nd most carries (24) in the league last week and that doesn't bode well for his usage/production the week after. Playing in Buffalo isn't a great matchup either.
WR Vincent Jackson ($7,300)- Until Josh McCown gets it together or Mike Glennon gets the nod, I wouldn't feel comfortable rolling with Jackson. Rookie Mike Evans matched Jackson in targets last week. This week's matchup against St. Louis is going to be an ugly one. I'd avoid all Rams or Bucs.