What Can the Redskins Expect out of Pick No. 51?

When assessing what kind of players will fall to the Redskins at No. 51 in this year’s draft, it’s better to look at a range instead of a specific draft spot, say, 45-55 for instance.

But just for fun, let’s take a look at the players that have been drafted at 51 over the past few seasons and examined how they panned out, or have panned out so far.

Year	Rnd	Pick	Player	Pos	Tm
2012	2	51	Jerel Worthy	DT	GNB
2011	2	51	Da'Quan Bowers	DE	TAM
2010	2	51	Toby Gerhart	RB	MIN
2009	2	51	Andy Levitre	G	BUF
2008	2	51	Malcolm Kelly	WR	WAS
2007	2	51	Steve Smith	WR	NYG
2006	2	51	Ryan Cook	C	MIN
2005	2	51	Nick Collins	DB	GNB
2004	2	51	Dwan Edwards	DT	BAL
2003	2	51	Terry Pierce	LB	DEN
2002	2	51	Clinton Portis	RB	DEN
2001	2	51	Paul Toviessi	DE	DEN

• Jerel Worthy was considered a first-round talent by many, but found himself sliding down the draft board until the Green Bay Packers took him at 51. Worthy, like many rookies had some ups and downs his rookie season, but found consistency toward the year’s end. Pass-rushing continues to be an issue for Worthy, but he’s got the makeup to be one of the better run stuffers the league offers. Though inconsistent in the beginning of his career, there’s still plenty of room for him to grow and ultimately give the Packers a second-round steal.

• Da’Quan Bowers will be considered a bust for years to come if he doesn't improve, but at the time, the talent found at this draft spot was considered much higher than in years past. Bowers had the production in college, though his workouts and snippets of his tape were less than encouraging at times. At the beginning of draft season, Bowers was widely considered to be a top-five pick, but further concerns about his health had him plummet further down the board than many anticipated. As it stands now, Bowers has logged just 4.5 sacks in his career as a situational pass-rusher in TampaBay.

• Toby Gerhart had the unfortunate depth chart position of being right behind the best running back of the era, Adrian Peterson. While carries have come at a minimum for the Stanford product, Gerhart hasn’t disappointed in those few opportunities. While his NFL production is nothing that jumps off the paper, he’s a capable running back in the NFL, just not the workhorse stud that could have been had at his draft position.

• Not too many guards are selected at the top end of the draft, which is a reason why the Bills were able to get a stud of an offensive lineman when they selected Andy Levitre. He’s been a bruiser of a run blocker for Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, but just as impressive is his ability to protect the passer. Per Pro Football Focus, Levitre has played in 2,363 career pass-blocking snaps and allowed just nine sacks. Guards aren’t typically as responsible for giving up as many sacks as say, a tackle, or even the quarterback himself. But still, wow.

• Next down the list, is Malcolm Kelly, who needs no introduction for Redskins fans. All that’s needed to know in order to sum-up Kelly’s tenure in the league is this-- 21 games, 28 catches, zero touchdowns and countless hours on an exercise bike.

• The receiver selected at 51 the year prior, Steve Smith, has had his own injury problems to deal with. But unlike Kelly, that wasn’t before putting together a marvelous three-year stretch for the New York Giants, including the 2009 season where he caught 107 passes for 1,220 yards. Any team would be fortunate to get that kind of production out of a player just outside the top 50.

• In 2006, the Vikings selected center Ryan Cook, who saw extended time at tackle and guard instead of his natural position. That will happen when Matt Birk and then John Sullivan are ahead of you on the depth chart. Cook started 11 games for the Dallas Cowboys at center a season ago and his reliability was a pleasant surprise for a team that’s had shaky offensive line play over the years.

• Nick Collins was selected at 51 in 2005, and was amidst the prime of his career when a neck injury cut his career short in 2011. He was a three-time Pro Bowl safety, who recorded 21 interceptions and 68 defensed passes over six full NFL seasons.

• Dwan Edwards, though unspectacular throughout his career, has gotten regular work as a starting defensive lineman with the Panthers, Bills and spent six seasons with the Baltimore Ravens. In 2012, Edwards recorded six sacks with the Panthers, which stands as his career-high.

• Terry Pierce is the last of three straight seasons where former Denver Broncos and current Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan owned the 51^st overall pick. The linebacker had an injury-riddled career in the NFL, playing in only 18 games, primarily on special teams.

• The 2002 draft pick has another familiar name, and one Redskins fans won’t soon forget, Clinton Portis. Shanahan did more than just hit on this pick, as Portis went on to notch two pro bowl selections and six 1,000-yard rushing seasons. Portis is also remembered as a vicious blocker, and one of the best pass-protecting backs of his time if not the best.

• Lastly, we have the first of Shanahan’s three consecutive No. 51 picks, Paul Toviessi, a linebacker out of Marshall, who never played in an official NFL snap after injuring his right knee in training camp and ultimately needing microfracture surgery.

All-in-all, this is a mixed bag of players, from Pro-Bowl studs, to decent starters, to flat-out busts in the league. When you examine this from a broader lens and look at a range of picks instead of No. 51 exclusively, the trajectory of variance just looks even steeper. For every Daryl Washington, LeSean McCoy, Calais Campbell and Ray Rice is a Limas Sweed, Jimmy Clausen or Jaiquawn Jarrett.

And this isn't really a surprise. Sitting in the middle of the second round should be a prime position to land a lot of top-end talents with a handful of health or character risks involved; that's why many slide down boards that far in the first place.

But 2013 looks like a unique draft that doesn't have the top-end talent of past years, but perhaps 25-35 more draftable players than recent classes, as NFL Network's Mike Mayock said in a recent conference call. Because of this, and also because this is the earliest pick the Redskins have in the draft, don't be shocked if they go for a "safer" pick that has a higher floor than a higher ceiling.