Earlier this week UKRedskin and Ronnie profiled defensive end Calais Campbell and corner back Brandon Carr as possible free agent targets for the Redskins. Now is the time to look at what they might cost, and what it will mean for the Redskins overall cap number. Now the Redskins with more than $40 million to spend against the cap this season (for a detailed report on their cap situation go here) the Redskins can afford these players, but the price still has to be right for it to make sense for Washington.
DE Calais Campbell:
Chance he re-signs: 50%
The Cards definitely want Campbell back, but they might not be willing to break the bank. The Cards don't have a ton of cap room (though they are expected to release some players to get flexibility) and they still have quite a few needs. Also while Campbell seems open to returning, he could explore other options.
Chance he is franchised: 70%
Right now the speculation is that the Cards will franchise Campbell, but that will account for about $10.5 million next year, and right now they don't have the money to make that sort of commitment. While they can clear some money with cuts and restructuring they have a number of needs to fill, and already have a good bit of money invested in fellow DE Darnell Dockett. The Cards might risk letting Campbell hitting the open market to ensure a more cap friendly deal.
What will he cost?:
Campbell is a bit tougher to estimate his cost, because you don't know how he will be viewed. On one hand he's never had the same hype as his teammate Dockett (despite out producing him). Also he's considered just above average against the run, and while he's a great pass rusher, his role as a 5-tech end, has helped keep his sack numbers low. Of course the other case is, while his sack numbers don't match-up with elite pass rushers, he's among the best pass rushers at his positional group. He's also got great size, which causes him to clog up passing lanes, disrupting far more plays than those that he gets to the QB.
I think he'll come up short of the $12-15 million given to top pass rushers and DT's, but he should be in that $9-10.5 million range (in terms of average). Given his age and consistency, I'm thinking it will be a 6-7 year deal with a fairly high guarantee. I'll say final terms are 6 years $60 million, with $33 million guaranteed.
How will that affect the cap?:
Well the $33 million guaranteed is pretty significant so it will have an effect on the cap, and it likely means that the Skins won't be able to get out of this deal for at least 4 years. I think it will take a $21 million signing bonus, and guaranteeing the first couple years of the deal.
Year by Year breakdown: Sal=salary for that year, SB=signing bonus allotment, OB= any other bonuses, Cap hit=what he costs vs the cap, REL=what it would cost to cut a player in a given year
2012: Sal: $2.5 mil; SB: $3.5 mil; OB:$0; Cap hit: $6 million, REL: $33 million
2013: Sal: $4.5 mil; SB: $3.5 mil; OB: $0: Cap hit: $8 million; REL: $27 million
2014: Sal: $5 mil; SB: $3.5 mil; OB: $0; Cap hit: $8.5 million; REL: $19 million
2015: Sal: $7.5 mil, SB: $3.5 mil; OB: $0, Cap hit: $11 million, REL: $10.5 million
2016: Sal: $9 mil, SB: $3.5 mil; OB $0, Cap Hit: $12.5 million, REL: $7 million
2017: Sal: $10.5 mil, SB: $3.5 mil; OB $0, Cap Hit: $14 million, REL: $3.5 million
CB Brandon Carr:
Chance he re-signs: 30%
While the Chiefs have stated that he is a priority they just signed fellow CB Brandon Flowers to a big money extension and might not want to spend that much on the position. They have also used 2nd and 4th round picks in the last two drafts respectively on the corner back spot, so they do have some depth. Carr has said that he likes playing in KC, but it sounds like he's not apt to take a team friendly deal.
Chance he is franchised: 50%
The Chiefs have two big free agents this offseason in WR Dewayne Bowe and Carr. One of whom is expected to be retained via the franchise tag. It might be more likely that Bowe is tagged, but at this point it is hard to tell. The Chiefs could prefer the tag route with Carr to buy them a year for their younger CB's to develop. It also could potentially allow them to trade Carr next season if Kansas City struggles early.
What he will cost?:
Carr is a former 5th round prospect, who has come on the scene these last two years as a big time CB. I wouldn't necessarily say he's elite, but he's in the very good category. Money has been thrown around pretty generously to corners of late, but Carr will have to compete with some other talented corners this offseason, which could depress his market a little. He's not as flashy as some corners, and didn't always match-up vs a top WR (given the presence of Flowers) so I don't think his market will get too crazy. I'd guess he'll get an average between $8-9 million a year. I'll say he gets a 6 year $51 million deal, with $21 million guaranteed.
How will he affect the cap?:
Well honestly if the Redskins were to cut DeAngelo Hall who is set to count $15 million + against the cap the next two years (most of which is not guaranteed) it won't affect the Redskins that much. The $21 million guaranteed could be easily broken down into a $15 million signing bonus, with the rest paid in guaranteed salaries in the first two years. In fact the Redskins could actually save money the next two years if they play the cap right.
Year by Year breakdown: Sal=salary for that year, SB=signing bonus allotment, OB= any other bonuses, Cap hit=what he costs vs the cap, REL=what it would cost to cut a player in a given year
2012: Sal: $2.5 mil; SB: $2.5 mil; OB:$0; Cap hit: $5 million, REL: $21 million
2013: Sal: $3.5 mil; SB: $2.5 mil; OB: $0: Cap hit: $6 million; REL: $16 million
2014: Sal: $7 mil; SB: $2.5 mil; OB: $0; Cap hit: $9.5 million; REL: $10 million
2015: Sal: $8.5 mil, SB: $2.5 mil; OB: $0, Cap hit: $11 million, REL: $7.5 million
2016: Sal: $7 mil, SB: $2.5 mil; OB $0, Cap Hit: $9.5 million, REL: $5 million
2017: Sal: $7.5 mil, SB: $2.5 mil; OB $0, Cap Hit: $10 million, REL: $2.5 million
Steve Shoup will be covering Free Agency and the NFL Draft for his own site Fanspeak.com, but will provide write-ups on players for the Redskins here on Hogs Haven as well. Check out his NFL Draft Page for more details and updates throughout the draft season! HTTR!