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Predicting the NFL Draft - How the Experts Fared

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mel kiper
mel kiper

For all you amateur draftniks out there who follow the NFL Draft like a religion, there are hundreds of professional, and semi-professional analysts who do this for a living.  Google NFL Mock Draft, and you will see lists a mile long of Mock Draft websites.

So, the question becomes, who do you follow?  IMO, most of these guys are hacks.  They listen to a report on a prospect, and turn that report into their own analysis of the player.  Many times undisclosed injuries have a lot to do with the stock of a draft prospect, and the outsiders know none of this. 

ESPN's Mel Kiper and Todd McShay get most of the attention, but it's primarily due to the national publicity that ESPN generates.  NFL Networks Mike Mayock is a well respected draftnik, but his analysis is sometimes a little off the wall.  Wes Bunting is well researched, and well respected amongst the NFL draftnik community.  He does his homework, plain and simple. 

But how do the rest of the self-proclaimed draftniks stack up?

The Huddle Report just did a Mock Draft scoring system, thats rates the most popular draftniks on a pretty simple, clear scoring system.

Do you want to see where your favorite ranks?  Check it out below.  You may be surprised by the results.

http://www.thehuddlereport.com/Free/mockdraftscoring.shtml

Each pick can score 1 or 3 points. Here is how: Player in round = 1  or  (P)layer in round 1 + (M)atched to team 2 = 3 points

 
5 YEAR AVERAGES
RANK Web Site / Publication 5 YR AVG. 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
1 Rick Gosselin - Dallas Morning News 46.80 53 45 43 40 53
2 Jason Boris - Times News 44.60 51 44 44 37 47
3 Mel Kiper jr - ESPN 43.20 40 48 43 37 48
4 Al Fronczak - East Coast Sports News 43.00 47 37 40 44 47
5 Robby Esch - The Huddle Report 42.60 44 45 43 45 36
6 Scott Wright - Draft Countdown 41.60 46 39 43 39 41
7 Walter Cherepinsky - Walter Football 41.40 39 37 39 38 54
8 Michael Abromowitz - The Football Expert 41.40 38 41 48 43 37
9 Ryan McCrystal - Draft Ace 40.80 38 39 43 38 46
10 Dan Kadar - Mocking The Draft 40.20 46 49 38 29 39
11 Jeff Mullen - NFL Draft Line 39.80 39 35 41 42 42
12 Chad Thompson - NFL Draft Line 39.60 40 38 34 34 52
13 Brian Fitzgerald - Draft Daddy 39.20 40 38 39 37 42
14 Colin Lindsay - Great Blue North 38.60 41 38 35 39 40
15 Forrest Long - Fantasy Football Toolbox 38.20 41 43 34 32 41
16 Drew Boylhart - The Huddle Report 38.00 40 33 45 34 38
17 Matt Bitonti - Draft Daddy 38.00 38 40 36 41 35
18 Tommy Lawlor - Scouts Notebook 38.00 36 41 40 33 40
19 John Clifford - Draft Board Insider 38.00 33 34 39 33 51
20 Curtis Popejoy - Draft Board Insider 37.60 42 38 32 34 42
21 Aaron Freeman - Falc-Fans 37.20 37 38 43 35 33
22 Bill Viola - Saturdays 2 Sundays 37.20 33 39 35 35 44
23 Chris Steuber - Scout.com 36.80 37 38 33 39 37
24 Fred Jones - The Huddle Report 36.60 36 42 36 32 37
25 Robert Bryant - NFL Draft Dog 34.80 33 38 35 34 34
26 Glenn Bernardi - Draft Daddy 34.20 35 34 34 35 33
     
THE HUDDLE REPORT MOCK DRAFT CHAMPIONS
2011 Rick Gosselin - Dallas Morning News
2010 Will Spencer & Rob Engle - Draft Breakdown
2009 MIKE BAND - DRAFT ACE
2008 Ricky Dimon -  FF Toolbox
Robby Esch - The Huddle Report
2007 Clark Judge - CBS Sportsline 
2006 Rick Gosselin - Dallas Morning News
Nolan Nawrocki - Pro Football Weekly
2005 Harry Away - NFL Talent Experts
2004 Scott Wright NFL Draft Countdown
2003 Rick Gosselin - Dallas Morning News
2002 The Red Zone

2011 MOCK DRAFTS
RK Web Site / Publication SCORE M P
1 Rick Gosselin - Dallas Morning News 53 12 29
2 Jason Boris - Times News 51 11 29
3 Al Fronczak - East Coast Sports News 47 10 27
4 Rob Rang - NFL Draft Scout 47 9 29
5 Dan Kadar - Mocking The Draft 46 9 28
Doug Martz - Draft Board Guru 46 9 28
Scott Wright - Draft Countdown 46 9 28
8 Jesse Bartolis - NFLMocks.com 44 8 28
Robby Esch - The Huddle Report 44 8 28
10 Clint Clearwater - The Football Expert 43 8 27
Hunter Ansley - Draft Zoo 43 8 27
Mike Mayock - NFL Network 43 8 27
13 Ben Standig - FFToolbox 43 7 29
14 Curt Popejoy - Draft Board Insider 42 8 26
15 Lance Zierlein - Z Report 42 7 28
Matthew Fairburn - Mocking the Draft 42 7 28
Nolan Vasan - NFL Draft Geek 42 7 28
Spencer and Engle - Draft Breakdown 42 7 28
Tony Bader - The Draft Shack 42 7 28
20 Walt Deptula - WCCP FM 41 8 25
21 Eric Galko - Optimum Scouting 41 7 27
Forrest Long - FFToolbox 41 7 27
23 Colin Linsay - Great Blue North 41 6 29
24 Matthew Elder - Optimum Scouting 40 7 26
Sayre Bedinger - NFLMocks.com 40 7 26
26 Brad Clark - NFL's Future 40 6 28
Brian Fitgerald - Draft Daddy 40 6 28
Chad Thompson - NFL Draft Line 40 6 28
Drew Boylhart - The Huddle Report 40 6 28
Keet Bailey - NFL Soup 40 6 28
Ken Zalis - Fans' Fantasy Football 40 6 28
Ricky Dimon - FFToolbox 40 6 28
Ryan Lownes - Draft Breakdown 40 6 28
Todd McShay - ESPN 40 6 28
Mel Kiper jr - ESPN 40 6 28
Brian Phlipot - TheFootballHub.com 40 6 28
Mike Band - Draft Ace 40 6 28
38 Jeff Mullen - NFL Draft Line 39 6 27
Shavon Walker - Pro Sports Draft 39 6 27
Randall Wieda - FFToolbox 39 6 27
Sideline Scouting - Staff 39 6 27
Walter Cherepinsky - Walter Football 39 6 27
43 Aaron Aloysius - Draft Breakdown 39 5 29
Wes Bunting - National Football Post 39 5 29
45 Matt Bitonti - Draft Daddy 38 6 26
Ryan McCrystal - Draft Ace 38 6 26
47 Chris Maier - NFL Draft 101 38 5 28
Mark Mitchell - Draft Board Insider 38 5 28
Taylor Smith - NFL Soup 38 5 28
Michael Abromowitz - The Football Expert 38 5 28
Craig Strachan - Consensus Draft Services 38 5 28
52 Josh Gleason - The Cover Two 37 6 25
53 Aaron DeMange - Sunday Kickoff 37 5 27
Aaron Freeman - FalcFans.com 37 5 27
Bob McGinn - Milwaukee Journal Sentinel 37 5 27
Chris Steuber - ChrisSteuber.com 37 5 27
Jeff West - Consensus Draft Services 37 5 27
Scott Carasik - Scar Draft 37 5 27
59 Tony Conty - NFL Draft Blitz 37 4 29
60 Jeff Christiansen - FFToolbox 36 5 26
Jordan Grove - Scar Draft 36 5 26
Luchene & Mencio - NFL Rough Draft 36 5 26
Matt Miller - New Era Scouting 36 5 26
Paul Emery - Football Diner 36 5 26
65 Tommy Lawlor - Scouts Notebook 36 5 26
66 Dave Druckenmiller - Football Room 36 4 28
Jonathan Cook - Draft Bulletin 36 4 28
Fred Jones - The Huddle Report 36 4 28
69 Scott Garbarini - The Sports Network 35 5 25
70 Eric Haigh - NFLMocks.com 35 4 27
Evan Silva - Pro Football Talk 35 4 27
Glenn Bernardi - Draft Daddy 35 4 27
Jacob Cox - Draft Take 35 4 27
James Christensen - NE Patriots Draft 35 4 27
Kevin Roberts - NFL Soup 35 4 27
Matt De Lima - FFToolbox 35 4 27
77 Bryan Broaddus - ESPNDallas.com 34 4 26
Chris Kouffman - Universal Draft 34 4 26
Mike Harman - Draft Maven 34 4 26
Eric Blumhardt - NFL Draft Dog 34 4 26
Ethan Hammerman - Scar Draft 34 4 26
John Corcoran - NFL Draft Dog 34 4 26
Josh Sanchez - NFLMocks.com 34 4 26
Michael Schottey - DraftTek 34 4 26
Mihai Mitrache - OG Draft 34 4 26
Richard Lines - Universal Draft 34 4 26
87 Ryan Conley - Football Mockery 34 3 28
Joel Welser - FFToolbox 34 3 28
Jon Dove - Mocking the Draft 34 3 28
90 Bill Smith - NFL Draft Dog 33 4 25
Dan Hope - SportsWritersAlliance.com 33 4 25
Draft Tek - Computer Mock 33 4 25
Simon Clancy - Universal Draft 33 4 25
94 Ben Morgan - Draft Board Insider 33 3 27
Bill Viola - Saturdays 2 Sundays 33 3 27
Brent Sobleski - TFY Draft Insiders 33 3 27
John Clifford - Draft Board Insider 33 3 27
Rob Staton - Seahawks Draft Blog 33 3 27
Robert Bryant - NFL Draft Dog 33 3 27
100 Bryan Dietzler - NFL Draft Dog 32 3 26
JR Glymph - NFL Draft Blitz 32 3 26
Kevin Cornaire - National Football Report 32 3 26
Paul Guillemette - Paul's Pigskin 32 3 26
Quinn Fulton - NFL Draft Dog 32 3 26
105 Bill Dow - NFLFans.com 32 2 28
Scott Acocks - NFL Draft Dog 32 2 28
107 Joe Everett - Rookie Draft 31 3 25
108 Todd Kleinheinz - NFL Draft Pros 31 2 27
109 Jerry Hsu - NFL Draft Pros 31 1 29
110 Josh Wingate - Scar Draft 30 2 26
Larry McCammon - NFL Draft Dog 30 2 26
Mike Mihalovich - Couch Scout 30 2 26
Nate Mosser - The Draft Shack 30 2 26
114 Cody Benjamin - Bleed-Green.com 29 2 25
Frank Miseage - NFL Draft Dog 29 2 25
116 Mike Kirby - Mocking the Draft 28 1 26
117 Mark Stein - NFL Draft Dog 27 2 23
118 John L. Clarke - NFL Draft Dog 27 1 25
Robert Jones - Sporting News Radio 27 1 25