When NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock makes an evaluation on the likelihood a college running back is productive in the NFL, he uses a rule that the RB had to average at least 5 yards a carry in college. It's a valid point because if a RB is averaging 4 yards a carry in the much smaller NCAA, how can he possibly do better in the NFL where defenses are bigger AND faster? It makes sense, but like the 26-27-60 rule, I did an investigation to see if a.) it holds merit to the 2010 top NFL rushers, and b.) how the 2011 RB draft class holds up.
Here's a list of the top 10 NFL running backs this season and their average yards per carry in college. As you can see, 3 of the top 11 RBs do not pass Mayock's rule, including the leading rusher per carry.
|
Rk |
Player |
Team |
Att/G |
Yds |
Avg |
Yds/G |
TD |
College Avg. |
|
1 |
Arian Foster |
HOU |
20.4 |
1,616 |
4.9 |
101 |
16 |
4.6 (TEN) |
|
2 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
JAC |
21.4 |
1,324 |
4.4 |
94.6 |
5 |
5.8 (UCLA) |
|
3 |
Jamaal Charles |
KC |
14.4 |
1,467 |
6.4 |
91.7 |
5 |
6.2 (Texas) |
|
4 |
Darren McFadden |
OAK |
17.2 |
1,157 |
5.2 |
89 |
7 |
5.8 (ARK) |
|
5 |
Adrian Peterson |
MIN |
18.9 |
1,298 |
4.6 |
86.5 |
12 |
5.4 (OK) |
|
6 |
Michael Turner |
ATL |
20.9 |
1,371 |
4.1 |
85.7 |
12 |
5.3 (N. Ill) |
|
7 |
Chris Johnson |
TEN |
19.8 |
1,364 |
4.3 |
85.2 |
11 |
4.8 (ECU) |
|
8 |
Rashard Mendenhall |
PIT |
20.2 |
1,273 |
3.9 |
79.6 |
13 |
6.5 (Ill) |
|
9 |
Steven Jackson |
STL |
20.6 |
1,241 |
3.8 |
77.6 |
6 |
4.9 (Oregon St) |
|
10 |
Frank Gore |
SF |
18.5 |
853 |
4.2 |
77.5 |
3 |
5.7 (Miami) |
|
11 |
LeGarrette Blount |
TB |
15.5 |
1,007 |
5 |
77.5 |
6 |
6.8 (Oregon) |
- Arian Foster never averaged above 4.9 all four years at TEN.
- Chris Johnson's average his Senior year was 6.0 on 236 carries.
- Steven Jackson had a whopping 350 carries his last year at Oregon State but only averaged 4.4 a carry.
Lawrence Phillips and Blair Thomas are arguably two of the biggest RB busts in NFL history. Rams picked Phillips in 1996 and he averaged 6.7 yards a carry at Nebraska. Jets selected Blair Thomas in 1990 and he averaged 5.5 yards a carry at Penn State. So, this stat metric can't be used to assume that a high college average will relate to the NFL.
I apply Mayock's rule against the 2011 Running Back class after the jump.
1.) Mark Ingram, ALA, 5'10", 215 lbs: 5.7 yards per carry (ypc) over 3 years.
2.) Mikel Leshoure, Illinois, 6-0, 230 lbs: 6.0 ypc over 3 years.
3.) Ryan Williams, VA Tech, 5-10, 206: 5.3 ypc over 2 years.
4.) Jordan Todman, UConn, 5-9, 195 lbs: 5.2 ypc over 3 years.
5.) DeMarco Murray, ALA, 6-0, 214 lbs: 4.9 ypc over 4 years.
6.) Kendall Hunter, OK St, 5-7, 199 lbs: 5.9 ypc over 4 years.
7.) Da'Rel Scott, UMD, 5-11, 205 lbs: 5.6 ypc over 4 years.
Note: Delone Carter (SYR) averaged 4.8 ypc over his 4 years. In 2009, where he saw his most carries, he averaged 4.3 ypc.
As for the Redskins....
- Clinton Portis averaged 5.7 yards a carry his 2 years at the U.
- Ryan Torain averaged 5.4 ypc his two years at Arizona State.
- After all this research, the last thing I did was through Keiland Williams name in to see what his stats were: a whopping 5.7 yards a carry over his 4 years at LSU.