The Redskins need to draft a QB. There's no doubt about it. All of the circular-logic banter this week on the QBs reminded me of an article I came across last year involving a formula for evaluating Quarterbacks. It's called the Rule of 26-27-60.
Here is the gist of it: If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level.
QBs that have passed this rule: Sam Bradford, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Matt Stafford.
QBs who did not pass this rule: Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, David Carr, Heath Shuler, Jimmy Clausen, Jay Cutler, Joey Harrington, Tim Couch, Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow, Alex Smith (1 game short), Jeff George, and Vince Young (horrible Wonderlic). Yes, these are all huge busts but were all VERY high (or projected) 1st rounders.
Exceptions: Brett Favre (22 Wonderlic), McNabb (14 Wonderlic), Matt Leinart - who at USC played over 30 games, 35 Wonderlic, and threw over 63% all three years. Aaron Rodgers averaged 63.8 completion percentage, 35 Wonderlic, and 26 games (1 game short). Ben Roethlisberger scored a 25 on the Wonderlic (1 point short) but easily had the number of games and high completion %. Josh Freeman met all the rules except completion % at KSU (59.1%) - so close.
So how do the top, 2011, NFL QB prospects measure up to this rule? Stats after the jump...
Obviously, the Wonderlic test still needs to be administered, but several QBs clearly do not match this rule: Locker, Kaepernick, and Cam Newton - interestingly the highest 3 ranked QBs of the bunch. I'm not going to pretend I can evaluate college QBs for Mike Shanahan's system, but based on this rule and its' history, I'd rather take my chances on the #10 pick with a bona fide LB or NT. We've seen drafts go by with no star QBs, and it's possible that this draft is one of them. The only good QB in the 2005 draft was Aaron Rodgers, and he sat for 3 full years with the luxury of learning from the best. The 2007 draft netted ZERO starter QBs (Kolb perhaps the only exception) despite six being taken in the first 3 rounds. So here are the 2011 candidates:
Jake Locker, 6'2" - 228 lbs - (FAILED COMPL % MISERABLY)
| Year | School | Conf | Class | Pos | Cmp | Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | AY/A | TD | Int | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | Washington | Pac-10 | FR | QB | 155 | 328 | 47.3 | 2062 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 14 | 15 | 105.0 |
| 2008 | Washington | Pac-10 | SO | QB | 50 | 93 | 53.8 | 512 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 1 | 0 | 103.6 |
| 2009 | Washington | Pac-10 | JR | QB | 230 | 395 | 58.2 | 2800 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 21 | 11 | 129.7 |
| 2010 | Washington | Pac-10 | SR | QB | 184 | 332 | 55.4 | 2265 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 17 | 9 | 124.2 |
| Career | 619 | 1148 | 53.9 | 7639 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 53 | 35 | 119.0 |
Colin Kaepernick, 6'4" - 225 lbs - (FAILED COMPL %)
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
Nevada |
WAC |
FR |
QB |
133 |
247 |
53.8 |
2175 |
8.8 |
9.8 |
19 |
3 |
150.8 |
|
2008 |
Nevada |
WAC |
SO |
QB |
208 |
383 |
54.3 |
2849 |
7.4 |
7.8 |
22 |
7 |
132.1 |
|
2009 |
Nevada |
WAC |
JR |
QB |
166 |
282 |
58.9 |
2052 |
7.3 |
7.7 |
20 |
6 |
139.1 |
|
2010 |
Nevada |
WAC |
SR |
QB |
233 |
359 |
64.9 |
3022 |
8.4 |
8.6 |
21 |
8 |
150.5 |
|
Career |
|
740 |
1271 |
58.2 |
10098 |
7.9 |
8.4 |
82 |
24 |
142.5 |
Ricky Stanzi, 6'4" - 230 lbs - (FAILED COMPL %) - High Enough to Squeak Through, though
| Year | Team | G | Cmp | Att | Comp % | Yds | Yd/A | TDs | Int | Sacked | Yds |
| 2007 | Iowa | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2008 | Iowa | 13 | 150 | 254 | 59.1 | 1956 | 7.7 | 14 | 9 | 22 | 138 |
| 2009 | Iowa | 11 | 171 | 304 | 56.3 | 2417 | 8.0 | 17 | 15 | 23 | 175 |
| 2010 | Iowa | 13 | 221 | 345 | 64.1 | 3004 | 8.7 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 135 |
| Career | 39 | 542 | 907 | 59.8 | 7377 | 8.1 | 56 | 31 | 64 | 448 |
Christian Ponder - 6'2.5" - 222lbs - PASSED
Chris has an injury history, and well, he went to FSU so there's no guarantee he'll pass the Wonderlic. Kidding aside, he graduated with a 3.96 GPA and is on his 2nd Masters. Crazy smart. I'll have a profile on him up soon.
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
Florida State |
ACC |
FR |
QB |
8 |
18 |
44.4 |
105 |
5.8 |
1.9 |
1 |
2 |
89.6 |
|
2008 |
Florida State |
ACC |
SO |
QB |
177 |
318 |
55.7 |
2006 |
6.3 |
5.3 |
14 |
13 |
115.0 |
|
2009 |
Florida State |
ACC |
JR |
QB |
227 |
330 |
68.8 |
2717 |
8.2 |
8.1 |
14 |
7 |
147.7 |
|
2010 |
Florida State |
ACC |
SR |
QB |
184 |
299 |
61.5 |
2044 |
6.8 |
7.0 |
20 |
8 |
135.7 |
|
Career |
|
596 |
965 |
61.8 |
6872 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
49 |
30 |
132.1 |
Cam Newton - 6'6" - 250 lbs. - (FAILED - ONLY 14 GAMES PLAYED)
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
Florida |
SEC |
FR |
QB |
5 |
10 |
50.0 |
40 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
0 |
0 |
83.6 |
|
2008 |
Florida |
SEC |
SO |
QB |
1 |
2 |
50.0 |
14 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
0 |
0 |
108.8 |
|
2010 |
Auburn |
SEC |
JR |
QB |
185 |
280 |
66.1 |
2854 |
10.2 |
11.2 |
30 |
7 |
182.0 |
|
Career |
Overall |
191 |
292 |
65.4 |
2908 |
10.0 |
10.9 |
30 |
7 |
178.2 |
|||
|
Florida |
6 |
12 |
50.0 |
54 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
0 |
0 |
87.8 |
||||
|
Auburn |
185 |
280 |
66.1 |
2854 |
10.2 |
11.2 |
30 |
7 |
182.0 |
Greg McElroy (ALA) - 6'2 - 222lbs - (PASSED)
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
Alabama |
SEC |
FR |
QB |
8 |
9 |
88.9 |
73 |
8.1 |
10.3 |
1 |
0 |
193.7 |
|
2008 |
Alabama |
SEC |
SO |
QB |
8 |
11 |
72.7 |
123 |
11.2 |
8.9 |
1 |
1 |
178.5 |
|
2009 |
Alabama |
SEC |
JR |
QB |
198 |
325 |
60.9 |
2508 |
7.7 |
8.2 |
17 |
4 |
140.5 |
|
2010 |
Alabama |
SEC |
SR |
QB |
222 |
313 |
70.9 |
2987 |
9.5 |
10.1 |
20 |
5 |
169.0 |
|
Career |
|
436 |
658 |
66.3 |
5691 |
8.6 |
9.2 |
39 |
10 |
155.4 |
Andy Dalton (TCU) - 6'2" - 213 lbs - (PASSED)
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
TCU |
MWC |
FR |
QB |
222 |
371 |
59.8 |
2459 |
6.6 |
5.8 |
10 |
11 |
118.5 |
|
2008 |
TCU |
MWC |
SO |
QB |
182 |
307 |
59.3 |
2242 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
11 |
5 |
129.2 |
|
2009 |
TCU |
MWC |
JR |
QB |
199 |
323 |
61.6 |
2756 |
8.5 |
8.8 |
23 |
8 |
151.8 |
|
2010 |
TCU |
MWC |
SR |
QB |
209 |
316 |
66.1 |
2857 |
9.0 |
9.9 |
27 |
6 |
166.5 |
|
Career |
|
812 |
1317 |
61.7 |
10314 |
7.8 |
7.9 |
71 |
30 |
140.7 |
Ryan Mallett - 6'6" - 238 lbs. (37 games) - (FAILED COMPL %)
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2007 |
Michigan |
Big Ten |
FR |
QB |
61 |
141 |
43.3 |
892 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
7 |
5 |
105.7 |
|
2009 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
SO |
QB |
225 |
403 |
55.8 |
3624 |
9.0 |
9.7 |
30 |
7 |
152.5 |
|
2010 |
Arkansas |
SEC |
JR |
QB |
266 |
411 |
64.7 |
3869 |
9.4 |
9.7 |
32 |
12 |
163.6 |
|
Career |
Overall |
552 |
955 |
57.8 |
8385 |
8.8 |
9.1 |
69 |
24 |
150.4 |
|||
|
Michigan |
61 |
141 |
43.3 |
892 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
7 |
5 |
105.7 |
||||
|
Arkansas |
491 |
814 |
60.3 |
7493 |
9.2 |
9.7 |
62 |
19 |
158.1 |
Blaine Gabbert - 6'5" - 235 lbs (29 games) - PASSED
|
Year |
School |
Conf |
Class |
Pos |
Cmp |
Att |
Pct |
Yds |
Y/A |
AY/A |
TD |
Int |
Rate |
|
2008 |
Missouri |
Big 12 |
FR |
QB |
5 |
13 |
38.5 |
43 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
0 |
0 |
66.2 |
|
2009 |
Missouri |
Big 12 |
SO |
QB |
262 |
445 |
58.9 |
3593 |
8.1 |
8.2 |
24 |
9 |
140.5 |
|
2010 |
Missouri |
Big 12 |
JR |
QB |
301 |
475 |
63.4 |
3186 |
6.7 |
6.5 |
16 |
9 |
127.0 |
|
Career |
|
568 |
933 |
60.9 |
6822 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
40 |
18 |
132.6 |
Random stat: Since Drew Brees was drafted in 2001, there have been 9 Qbs drafted in the 2nd round...0 are long term starters today.
Random Stat #2: Andrew Luck is 2 games shy of this rule. His 70% completion percentage last year sky-rocket his pass percentage well over 60%. Figuring he's at Stanford, he'll probably score at least a 40 on the Wonderlic.
Random Stat #3: Ryan Leaf's highest percentage in 3 years at Washington State was 55.4. Heath Shuler's completion percentages in 3 years were: 50.0%, 58.0%, 64.6%. Eric Crouch averaged 52%.