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The Thursday Line--If At First the 49ers Break You...Cry, Cry Again

I came into last week at 6-2 against the Aussie who takes his betting very seriously. Under our new format, he picks 4 AFC games, and I pick 4 NFC games. Even though he agreed with a lot of my awful picks in the comments section, I only penalized him for his wrong picks, and gave him the win for the ones I got wrong. After all was said and done in Week 3, Lee came out on top (5-3) and now trails me in the overall count 9-7. I simply must do better. If I win the season, Lee is flying me down to Australia. If Lee wins the season, I have to send him seasons 1 and 2 of Gilmore Girlson Blu-Ray.

Lee's picks (after the jump):



So another pitiful performance by me last week, but Ken was at least worse.  In my defence dear readers, it is the NRL Finals here in Sydney at the moment and I am 8 for 8 against the spread in the Finals Series (Playoffs) which is historic with just the Grand Final (Superbowl Equivalent) to come.  I will bring that luck with me this week and with only one Rugby League game to concentrate on, I am confidently predicting 4 from 4 this week.

I was looking at the Hilton Super Pool thing where the best gamblers in Vegas pick 5 games a week and me being 2 from 4 last week was not so terrible as it turns out.

Anyhow, onto this week's picks, where for once, I assure you that disagreeing with me-though that has been lucrative for the last two weeks-will prove costly this week.  I am on song this week I can feel it.  (Let me just say in advance, "Shut up Ken".)

Broncos (+6.5) over Titans

Even though I have Vince on my Fantasy team and I want him to do well, I DVR'd the Bronco's/Colts game last week and if it wasn't for some crucial mistakes on Special Teams and one key early Turnover the Broncos could easily have won that game.  But Peyton went into the Red Zone 3 times and came away with points each time...just clinical. Still, I liked what I saw from Denver last week.  Now, I haven't seen much of the Titans in Australia so far this year, so I might be missing something, but their results do not tell me they deserve a 6.5 start.  Vince Young is a winner-for all his faults he just gets win-but I don't see them blowing Denver away. Titans by 3 maybe, but Broncos to cover.  Broncos

Cleveland (+3) over Bengals

The game I got to watch in full last week before I went to work was Cincy v. Carolina and I can honestly say that was the most woeful game of NFL I have ever watched in my life.  The Color Commentator (I think was Rich Gannon) said this phrase at least 30 times during the game, and at one stage 8 times in 10 plays (yes I rewound my DVR and checked):  "You just can't do that in the NFL".  Palmer could have had 4 interceptions in his first 7 pass attempts, Clausen fumbled 2 balls from the Centre, Penalty's was just awful.  Seriously, if you didn't watch it, it is impossible to convey just how bad it was.  I don't care how bad Cleveland is, they can't be worse than the Bengals.  So with Cincy giving them a head start, I am taking the BrownsCleveland

Jets (-5.5) over Bills

What can I say about this other than that line is way too low.  I am starting to think the Pats are just not that good (which completely contradicts my statement from 2 weeks ago I know) and the Jets, if they want to be taken seriously as contenders, should have this game wrapped up by halftime.  Jets

Dolphins (+1.5) over Pats

I really like the Dolphins this year and I need Ricky Williams to fire it up for my Fantasy Team.  I hope this is the week for Ricky and I see the Dolphins causing a result that starts the first murmurs of "Are Belichick's best days behind him?" from New England.  Dolphins

I'm going all Joe Namath on you guys and guaranteeing 4 from 4 this week.  The only pick above that worries me is Dolphins v. Pats and I could easily have taken the weak way out and gone with the Texans who are only giving a 3 point head start to Oakland, but I wanted to stick with pure AFC games if possible.

4 from 4...this is the week.  And to repeat, if the Roosters beat St. George, or at least stay within 6.5 of them in the NRL Grand Final this week, I will have been perfect against the spread throughout the whole playoffs, a truly remarkable gambling moment for me, and really something mankind should be proud of, the same way we are proud of Neil Armstrong for walking on the moon!!!!

Let the abuse begin below!!


Well...hard to abuse too much there, except the Dolphins pick...the Cleveland pick...and the Broncos pick. I wonder what the weather is like in Australia in the winter? I will need to pack appropriately. I would kill to be able to pull off the phrase "I am on song this week." But without the Aussie accent and the hottie Aussie girls who understand that lingo, I have zero chance.

Here are my NFC game selections:

Seattle (-1.5) over St. Louis
I simply refuse to believe the Rams are that good. They got their win and they feel great about themselves. As much as I would like to see them blow the lid off with a huge offensive explosion and help me better cope with their win over the Skins, I see the 'Hawks and Matt Hasselbeck putting the Rams back in their place and establishing the pecking order out in the NFC West. SEAHAWKS

New Orleans (-13.5) over Carolina
I normally hate these kinds of lines. That's a lot of points to give any team in the NFL. But Uncle Rico is going to go nuts this week. The Saints will go over 40 points and their defense will keep the Panthers out of the end zone most of the day. SAINTS

Green Bay (-14.5) over Detroit
Wow...another ridiculous line. After the 18-penalty performance last week, I expect the Packers to reel it in and get back on track against a divisional opponent. The loss to the Bears hurt them in the divisional race, and they will turn to Aaron Rodgers to put the game out of reach. The Packers defense is going to have a huge week for fantasy owners this week. PACKERS

San Francisco (+7.5) against Atlanta
This game has trap written all over it. The Falcons are coming off a huge win over the defending Super Bowl champs. The 49ers are reeling from their 0-3 start. I choose to keep believing in Mike Singletary and Pat Willis. I have to because they are absolutely killing me so far this year. I have the 49ers winning this game if anyone feels saucy enough to money line them. 49ERS