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Handicappers Guide: Redskins @ Jaguars

Happy Holidays Redskins fans and to all the troops overseas away from their family. Thanks for all that you do. 

Line: Opened at 6.5 and is now Jags -7. (over/under 46).  

I am not feeling good about this game. The Redskins did not have a good winning record against AFC teams over the recent years, and the Jaguars running game is poised to have a huge day with all the injuries (Orakpo, Golston, and Daniels to name a few). Unlike some good running teams the Redskins have played, the Jags do in fact run the ball first. They're 2nd in the league so expect them to stick to the run game all day long.

Pros Cons
Redskins are 6-5 ATS all year Jags 4-0 Straight up and against the spread when playing teams with a losing record.
Redskins are 2-0 ATS off a division game. Jags 3-0 ATS when they're a favorite.
Maurice Jones Drew (Doubtful) will not play acc. to Jay Glazer. Backup RB Rashard Jennings is averaging 6.7 yards a carry on 47 carries. (3 TDs).
RJ was a 7th round draft pick out of Liberty.
Jaguars are ranked 31st in turnovers with -12. Redskins DL is decimated. Maake Kemoateu, Kedric Golston and Phillip Daniels are on IR.
Jaguars rushing D is ranked 22nd (4.6 yards per carry), and 27th ranked 255.6 passing yards per game (which is basically the same as Dallas' D). Redskins rushing D is ranked 31st (4.8 yards per carry), and passing 30th ranked (tied with NE) 263.3 passing yards per game
Jags are 31st in Qb Hits allowed (93). Redskins are 32nd in OL Qb Hits allowed (96).
Skins have allowed 11 more sacks though (30th ranked)
  Orakpo is out and Robert Jackson (6'4 255) will fill his spot who was called up from the practice squad.
  Questionable: Alexander, Banks, Harris, Moore, Artis Hicks, Rocky McIntosh, Casey Rabach and Mike Sellers.
  Jags are 8th best team in Time of Possession and fewest penalties.
  Redskins are 0-3 in December

Jags have had the most success running the ball to the left...and with Sackpo out...keep an eye on that. Jags are 2nd in the NFL in rushing attempts with 454. Redskins are 31st with 307. I expect a heavy dose of runs. It's very rare that you see a team in the playoff hunt with that lopsided of a turnover ratio. Can the Redskins D take advantage of that? Don't count on it given a pass rush is needed to force turnovers.

Prediction: Jaguars cover. 33-13.