(not the Cards)
We take our Super Bowl prediction very seriously so here goes. As exciting as Larry Fitz is, everyone needs to come down to Earth (including Ken (sugar) in his previous post). Have we learned nothing from history? Defense and Special Teams always prevail. Arizona has one of the poorer defenses in this post-season statistically and that was with two home field games. How is that going to work on the East coast where their record is poor and the crowd is largely terrible towels? The CAR game is what shocked the world, and the secret is out now.
Let's take a look at how PIT (#1 Pass D) did this year against all the top WRs:
Andre Johnson.....................10 rec 112 yds 0 td's
Braylon Edwards ...................4 rec 37 yds 0 td's (2 games)
Deshaun Jackson.................3 rec 40 yds 0 td's
Derrick Mason .......................14 rec 201 yds 0td's (3 games)
Chad Johnson.........................8 rec 52 yds 1 td (2 games)
TJ Houshmenzadah..............12 rec 78 yds 0 td's (2 games)
Plaxico Burress.......................3 rec 15 yds 0 td's
Santana Moss.........................2 rec 14 yds 0 td's
Reggie Wayne.........................6 rec 114 yds 1 td (65yd td)
Marvin Harrison......................3 rec 37 yds 0 td's
Vincent Jackson......................4 rec.....74 yds 1 td (2 games)
Chris Chambers....................7 rec 93 yds 0 td's (2 games)
Randy Moss............................4 rec 45 yds 0 td's
Wes Welker.............................4 rec 30 yds 0td's
Terrell Owens...........................3 rec 32 yds 1 td
Roy Williams...........................2 rec 16 yds 0 td's
Only allowing 4 TDs is pretty astonishing. Pittsburgh did not give up more than 1 TD per game to a #1 wide receiver ALL YEAR. Now, looking at Fitz's stats for the year, he makes Jesus Christ look like Freddie Mitchell. Fitzgerald Jr. absolutely PISSED on the Eagles both games this year. If Jim Johnson is unable to make adjustments, that certainly speaks volumes. Troy Polamalu doesn't really have things figured out yet either:
"I remember when we played against them in Arizona last year, and I remember him coming out for the starting lineups. He jumped up and we all looked at each other and said, 'Oh, my god. This guy is a freak athlete.' How do you stop it? I don't know. Nobody has stopped him."
"I think, schematically speaking, if you can throw off any timing with the quarterback, if you can get deeper than him — but he gets behind everybody and jumps higher than everybody, so it doesn't matter if it's double-, triple- or single-coverage. He makes plays on it all."
Looking at the Cardinals points against all year; Win or lose they have given up A LOT of scoring. Their D is able to get turnovers, but this game really all falls on Kurt Warner. Aging vet...eh, I'll take my chances with the horse, Ben.
So my predictions:
First Half Bet: ARIZONA -4. I'll gladly take the points. PIT has had the luxury of playing in the snow at home the last month, and they will not be used to the fast track of the ARI offense.
Second Half Bet: PIT Whatever the line is I'll take it. No team makes better half-time adjustments than the Steelers. ARI almost blew a 3-score half-time lead against the Birds 2 weeks ago.
Props: Anquan Boldin - Everything OVER. I think he will be running wild and will have a very nice day (since Larry will be getting ALL the attention).
Overall: If I had to pick I'd lay the (-7) with PIT. Arizona played in the worst division ever, and well, the Skins beat them. I really want to take the points, but I just can't bet on a QB that wears a glove. I expect he'll be on his back more than Paris Hilton. The overall score really doesn't interest me in a real bet since I believe I have the 2 half bets nailed down. I am pulling for the Cards to win this game, but I can't bet with my heart.
Thoughts? Predictions?