Danger, Skin Patrol!
My beloved Football Outsiders stings me whenever they criticize Your Washington Redskins though I respect their honesty and method. (Hat tip: AOL Fanhouse.) They recently simulated 5,000 seasons based only on the data accumulated through three weeks of play and computed each team's respective likelihoods of regular season success. Everyone, meet method:
The playoff odds report plays out the season 5,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage... [link above to FO will provide DAVE rating explanations] ... Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 5,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
And your 'Skins:
WAS 2-1 3.7% 8.6 3.1% 3.7% 3.4% 2.1% 13.2% 11.7% 12.3% 6.8% 25.0% 37.4%
Numbers are useless sans an explanation. The above so reads: Washington Redskins are 2-1, have a 3.7% DAVE rating (explained in link above), project to 8.6 mean wins, have a 3.1% chance of winning 1st playoff seed, 3.7% of winning 2nd, 3.4% of winning 3rd (odd), 2.1% of winning 4th (odd), 13.2% of winning 5th, 11.7% of winning 6th (odd), 12.3% of winning division, 6.8% of winning a first round bye, 25% chance of winning wild car, and a 37.4% chance of making the playoffs in general.
Later:
WAS 8.0% 3.8% 1.2%
Read as: Washington Redskins have an 8% chance of reaching conference championship game, a 3.8% chance of winning it, and a 1.2% chance of winning the Super Bowl. So you're saying there's a chance...?
Other oddities:
WAS 0.0%
Translation: Washington Redskins have a 0% chance of getting the 1st overall pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. That's pretty bold, you crazy Outsiders. As far as I can tell, this team, surprisingly, still has its first round draft pick for 2008. So they're saying our 2-1 record is already good enough to save us from the worst record in the league, which might make sense by itself, but could be bolstered by the not-untoward assumption that we're just going to trade it away later this season for shiny preciousssses.
Frankly, I love this. I'll take a better than 1 in 3 chance at a postseason any day. Ask me for favorable odds at the end of last season, and I'd have taken 10%.