Danger, Skin Patrol!
My beloved Football Outsiders stings me whenever they criticize Your Washington Redskins though I respect their honesty and method. (Hat tip: AOL Fanhouse.) They recently simulated 5,000 seasons based only on the data accumulated through three weeks of play and computed each team's respective likelihoods of regular season success. Everyone, meet method:
Frankly, I love this. I'll take a better than 1 in 3 chance at a postseason any day. Ask me for favorable odds at the end of last season, and I'd have taken 10%.