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Blogger Deathsport: It's time to fail dramatically

Since I was unavailable last week to make my picks, perhaps drunk, Hogs Haven reader TexSkins snuck into the competition with a big win going 10-3 to bring him to 56-52-8 on the year for a 52% success rate. It did not escape my attention that this 52% success rate is useless; it wouldn't draw a profit in any way because betting on TexSkins wouldn't be enough and betting against him certainly wouldn't be enough. Looking at the score, the most successful strategy currently available would be to bet against yours truly, as my 43% failure rate is above and beyond what anyone else is doing. Betting against me would yield a 57% win rate, higher than betting on Post Game Heroes, sitting at 55%. The degree to which I suck at picking winners could make you a wealthy person.

Here are my picks, who you should pick against, thanks to Post Game Heroes for the lines:

San Francisco at Atlanta (-3.5)
As bad as San Fran has been, I like them to win this game. Because of as bad as Atlanta has been.

Cincinnati at Buffalo (+1)
I picked Buffalo to win this game.

Seattle at Cleveland (-1.5)
I picked Cleveland to win, but 1 point wins are rare. We'll take the Browns (but you shouldn't).

Dallas at Philadelphia (+3)
I've picked Dallas every week so let's be different and go Philly.

Denver at Detroit (-3)
Tough line. I have Detroit winning though am not sure they can do it by 4 points. I think this will be a push, but bad intuition says Detroit.

Green Bay at Kansas City (-2.5)
Pffft, Green Bay wins straight up.

New England at Indianapolis (+5)
New England. I think they're like 7-1 ATS. I wonder what the over is on this game? 1,000? Until they're stopped, I gotta take the Pats.

Jacksonville at New Orleans (-3)
I picked New Orleans to win the game but this is another good line. Mancrush on Drew Brees forces the issue: Go Saints!

Houston at Oakland (-3)
Houston could win this game, going Texans.

San Diego at Minnesota (+7)
Chargers will win, but not by 7 points. Vikings. Norv Turner will find a way to keep it close.

Arizona at Tampa Bay (-3.5)
Yikes. I'll go with Arizona only because they proved so tenacious against us, but smart money is on Tampa. This is me second guessing myself second guessing myself. Go Arizona.

Carolina at Tennessee (-4)
Titans walk away with this one.

Washington at NY Jets (+3.5)
Your Washington Redskins.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-9)
I just think Pittsburgh is that much stronger. It's harder for them to win the big spreads than the other top tier teams because of the way the Steelers play, with defense and a clock grinding running game, but against a division opponent I think they come out and knock the Ravens out. Taking the Steelers.