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Blogger Deathsport Guarantee: I'm winning it all this week, baby!

By Skin Patrol

Curly R has last week's results front and center:

Blogger Deathsport: NFL Pick'em wraps for week six. Your results:

T-1. Hogs Haven with 6 wins, 5 losses and 2 pushes. Winless Skin Patrol will no doubt claim moral victory.

T-1. Post Game Heroes at 6-5-2. Thus they maintain what they will describe as a yawning chasm of a two game lead in the overall.

T-1. Curly R at 6-5-2. I'm trying to play it tight, keep it close and hope for a break at the end.

4. CommonPrejudice at 4-7-2. Brian got called away to Burma mid-picking.

This marks like the 12th time in a 6 week season that I've tied for first. For the season I'm now 34-47-7, just 13 games south of .500. The phone hasn't stopped ringing from sports books and ambitious investors who want to get a piece of Skin Patrol and his incredible picking prowess. For serious, they aren't sniffing around my picks for obvious reason, but I'm not even shitting around when I say they should. Humor me for a moment...

The sample size is still small, though were you to try and make a legitimate business decision based solely on the four participating bloggers in this year's Blogger Deathsport, the only clear winner thus far is me. Once again, Curly R has the data:

1. Post Game Heroes: 45-36-8 or 56% with two weekly wins
  1. Curly R: 43-38-8 or 53% with one weekly win
  2. CommonPrejudice: 41-40-8 or 51% with one weekly win
==50%==
4. Hogs Haven: 34-47-7 or 42% with no weekly wins
To win money betting on football, you need to pick the winner ~53% of the time. Anything over 55% is an incredible clip. Per conversations with a friend of mine who has been consumed by Gamblor and his neon claws, a 65% clip will like quadruple your money in a year.

You look at the numbers and the obvious conclusion is, well shoot Skin Patrol, if I need a 53% clip to win money, and 55% is good, then the obvious best pick here is to stack my chips behind Post Game Heroes. Even Curly R is a winner at 53%, right?

There's something to be said for that. But remember that I'm 34-47, or otherwise picking at a below 42% level. That means had you simply chosen the exact opposite of whomever I picked week in and week out, you'd have won 47 of your picks against just 34 misses, going 58% on the season. I'm an anti-hero and your ticket to fiscal bliss and perpetuity. If I can hold the line on my inept at or around 42% -- and let me add that is totally consistent with my lifetime of failure at picking winners -- than I may be one of the most financially valuable human beings on the planet, on par with some of the greatest Vegas experts in the entire internets. Reader(s), tap into your savings and get made; here's who you shouldn't pick this week:

Sunday
BAL (-3) @ BUF
Pick: No brainer. Baltimore.

NYJ @ CIN (-6)
Pick: Cincy

MIN @ DAL (-9.5)
Pick: Minnesota. Nothing can stop Adrian Peterson. Nothing.

TB @ DET (-2.5)
Pick: Tampa Bay

NE (-16.5) @ MIA
Pick: Lock it down on New England.

ATL @ NO (-9)
Pick: New Orleans

SF @ NYG (-9.5)
Pick: Giants

KC @ OAK (-2.5)
Pick: I actually like Kansas City here (which is why you shouldn't)

CHI @ PHI (-5)
Pick: Philly

PIT (-3.5) @ DEN
Pick: Pitt by a landslide. This is a lock. Sorry guys, I might've just doomed your team. Hope for the Steelers to win close?

STL @ SEA (-9)
Pick: Seattle

TEN (-1.5) @ HOU
Pick: Isn't Vince Young injured? Gotta take the Texans.

ARZ @ WAS (-8.5)
Pick: Pffft, Washington, easy.

Monday
IND (-3) @ JAX
Pick: Indy, why is this line so close?

You've tried the best, now try the rest!

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