Predictions, lines per Post Game Heroes. Justifications complements Football Outsiders who will loosely be choosing on my behalf based on their flawless DVOA rating. Going:
Carolina at Arizona (-4)
Pick: Arizona is substantially outplaying Carolina, and they have it at home. Easy: Arizona.
St. Louis at Baltimore (-9.5)
Pick: St. Louis is very much one of the worst teams in the league, and Baltimore is ranked 8th. At home? I'll take Baltimore.
Minnesota at Chicago (-5)
Pick: Minnesota, no question. They've played better football than Chicago despite their record. They win this straight up; lock.
Cincinnati at Kansas City (+3)
Pick: Tough pick but I'll take Cincy. KC has been awful to mediocre at everything; at least the Bengals have been straight up awesome on offense.
Miami at Cleveland (-4.5)
Pick: Miami without question. These two teams have played a lot closer football than their records would suggest. Vegas knows what time it is, as do I, and Miami is covering.
Washington at Green Bay (-3)
Pick: Washington, and I rely on no stats to tell me that. Lock it down.
Houston at Jacksonville (-6.5)
Pick: Have to go Jax. At home and they're a better offensive and defensive team than Houston.
New England at Dallas (+5.5)
Pick: See above. NE is the better team offensively and defensively.
Philadelphia at New York Jets (+3)
Pick: Easy pick, Philly. They are WAY underplaying their record and should dispatch the Jets by touchdown(s).
Oakland at San Diego (-9.5)
Pick: This one's tough but I'm loving on defense. I think Oakland is good enough to prevent a high scoring game out of SD, and thus prevent a 10 point spread out of SD, and thus win the bet on my behalf. Oakland.
New Orleans at Seattle (-6.5)
Pick: Seattle and it isn't close.
Tennessee at Tampa Bay (-3)
Pick: Three points are typically what accounts for home-field advantage. Tampa Bay is the better team and are at home. They deserve more than 3 points. Thus, go Bucs.
New York Giants at Atlanta (+3.5)