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Washington... a favorite this Sunday?

By Skin Patrol

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Not according to the lines which still have the Jags as a 2.5-3 point favorite. A friend alerted me to at least one guy who thinks the Jags are a lock.

With all the huge lines out there the Jags are only favored by 2.5.  After two big time wins against Dallas and Pittsburgh and losing by only 7 at Indy, the Jags just aren't getting the respect they deserve.  Washington looked good last weekend, but who did they play, oh yah the Texans.  Brunell had a terrific day, against the Texans.  Wait until he tries to complete 22 in a row against the Jags defense.  If Manning can only muster 14 out of 31 for 219 yards I doubt Brunell will have another stellar day on Sunday.  The Skins had a good running game going last weekend, against the Texans, they will have their hands full this weekend.  The Jags run defense was good again on Sunday giving up only 63 yards (26 yards allowed in week 2, and 88 yards in week 1).  We think that the ball stays on the ground and we give the edge to the Jags in this department (mostly because of the Jacksonville defense).  Washington held Dayne to only 61 yards last weekend, but in week 2 they allowed 138 yards on the ground against the Cowboys and week 1 they allowed 103 yards to the Vikings.  We think the Jags cover the spread, by at least a FG.

We disagree.

That same friend alerted me to the comforting news that Stat Shark, which uses complicated statistical breakdowns to simulate the game 10,000 times and report average scores/stats, has the Redskins as a slight favorite. Important breakdowns:

Favorite:
Redskins 51% - Jaguars 48%

Average Score:
Redskins 18.9 - Jaguars 18.3

% Odds 1 or more passing TD:
Mark Brunell 80.6 - Byron Leftwich 48.9

% Odds Passing Yards >220:
Mark Brunell 42.4 - Byron Leftwich 32.0

% Odds Rushing Yards >80:
Clinton Portis 40.3 - Fred Taylor 34.3

% Odds 1 or more Rushing TD:
Clinton Portis 28.9 - Fred Taylor 29.7

% Odds 1 or more Receiving TD:
Clinton Portis 27.5 - Fred Taylor 14.5

You can get all those stats yourself if you register for free at Stat Shark. Apparently it's starting to make waves in the sports handicapping community if you're into that kind of thing. In any event, I thought that the Redsins being favored anywhere was good news, especially from an intensive 10,000 game simulation. Go Redskins.

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