Wild Card Weekend, Part 1
by TexSkins on Jan 4, 2008 11:59 AM EST
in Previews
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The NFL playoffs begin this weekend, with your own WASHINGTON REDSKINS kicking things off Saturday afternoon in Seattle. I'm going to be going through a quick preview of the games, starting on Saturday.
SATURDAY
Washington (+3.5) @ Seattle - 4:30pm EST on NBC
Home of the Pacific Northwest Version the Professional Version the 12th Man. (image from here)
This is probably the worst matchup either team could have had in the 1st round. Washington is playing well going into the playoffs, but having to travel to Seattle is never easy. It is by far the biggest homefield advantage for the Wild Card round, and might be the best in the NFC. Seattle's defense is very average against the run (102.8 yards per game, good for 12th) and Collins negates their very good pass rush because of his quick release. They have given up pass yards (219.1 per game) if you can stay on your feet long enough to get the pass off (4th in the NFL with 45 sacks, Patrick Kerney 2nd in the NFL with 14.5 all by his onesey), which Collins does. A clipped healthy Santana Moss has the ability to change the game with one move, one slip, or one mistake by the defense. Beware of Trufant though, because he is tied with Ed Reed for 3rd in INTs with 7. A lazy ball to the outside by Collins could be 6-points-the-other-way bad. Cooley (or even Yoder) across the middle could be huge to attack the defense and open things up.
When Seattle has the ball, look for porn star Hitler definately Hedley Lamarr Matt Hassleback and his minor league mustache to be throwing the ball. A lot. They were 7th this season with 261.3 yards per game, behind some pass-happy offenses like DET, GB, DAL and NE. Why is that, you say? Well, I'm glad you asked. It was because they couldn't run the ball. Like, at all. Like, 101.2 yards per game bad. Like, worse than the Jets and barely better than the Packers bad.
Shawn Alexander, 2 years removed from his MVP season that carried the Seahawks to the Super Bowl, was simply ineffective when healthy. Maurice Morris had his moments, but for the most part, this is another one of the 21st century NFL offenses that passes first, early and often. But that actually serves as an advantage. The Redskins were a top 5 defense against the run (actually 4th, at 91.3 yards per game, behind only MIN in the NFC) and very average against the pass (16th at 214 yards per game) this year. With Seattle's 3 WR sets, the Skins D will miss CB Carlos Rogers more than at any point this year.
So what does it come down to?
When the Skins are on offense, they need to run the ball effectively to give Collins time to pass. Portis will be the key for the offense: as he goes, so goes the Redskins playoff chances. The offensive line needs to come up big against Kerney and Peterson on the outside and Tatupu on the interior. If they can't run, or if they start getting penalties because of the loud crowd, then it might be a very long day. They are not built to come from behind.
For the Redskins defense, can they stop Hasselstache and the passing attack? Usually when defenses want to make the offense one dimensional, they mean take away the run. Here, they want to force SEA to run. If the passing attack gets hot, it could be over very quick.
PREDICTION:
I think Washington is playing outstanding football right now. I also think that SEA is not a great matchup, despite some sloppy play down the stretch (losing to ATL in week 17, losing to CAR in week 15) and the lack of a running game. Kerney will get at least 1 sack. (Lock it down!) Turnovers will be deadly. I'm not sure either team has an much of an advantage in special teams.
I'll take WASHINGTON with the points. I think it'll be close and come down to whoever bobbles the field goal snap has the ball last.
The other lines for the weekend, courtesy of the Yahoo! Sports lines:
Saturday, 8:00 pm EST on NBC - JAX @ PIT (+2.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm EST on FOX - NYG @ TB (-3)
Sunday, 4:30 pm on CBS - TEN @ SD (-9.5)
I'll try to get more previews up as the weekend nears.
Audience participation time: what are the keys to victory on Saturday? What excites you? What scares you?
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PRO BOWLERS.......Maybe
Marcus Trufant has 7 interceptions this year. All have come against 3 teams:
Arizona -3 ints. Their weighted offensive DVOA is 18th.
St. Louis-2 ints. Their weighted offensive DVOA is 28th.
SanFran-2 ints. Their weighted offensive DVOA is 32nd.
In a weird coincidence, these 3 teams are all from the same division, the same division which Seattle plays in and which is statistically tied in win% for one the two worst divisions in the NFL.
4 of his 7 ints. have come against either the worst offensive team, San Fran or against the 5th worst offensive team in the NFL, St. Louis.
So lets forget about the fact that Seattle doesn't play many playoff teams throughout the year and lets just look at Trufants play against the top half of the league:
He has exactly 0 ints. against any teams offense in the top half of the NFL and Seattle has played 6 of those teams, including Pittsburgh, which is Ranked 17th in offense, just outside the top 50% in offensive DVOA.
Patrick Kerney has 14.5 sacks this year. Lets see where they come from.
1.5 sacks come from Tampa Bay, which is 1 of only 3 teams Seattle has played that has a win above .500, and by another coincidence Tampa Bay was the worst of those 3 in win% at just 1 game above .500.
In fact all of his other 13 sacks come from the bottom half of the worst weighted offensive DVOA teams in the NFL. Again, Seattle has played
6 teams in the top half and Kerney has only 1.5 sacks, which came from their very first game of the year.
Furthermore, 10 of those 13 sacks come against the worst 8 teams offensively in football.
To sum it up, 77% of Patrick Kerneys sacks came from the bottom 25% in weighted offensive DVOA teams in the NFL.
by Sincethebeginning on Jan 4, 2008 12:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
So what you're saying is...
Bad move, my friend.
by TexSkins on Jan 4, 2008 12:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Your dangerously underrating Trufant
How about looking at how the Hawks are 8th in DVOA on covering a #1 receiver (Trufant's main responsibility) and 5 of his INT came while he was guarding 2 of the NFC's best receivers (Fitzgerald and Holt)
While 8th still far from being #1 consider that he has had to guard Joey Galloway, Fitzgerald x2, Chad Johnson, Marcus Colston, Torry Holt x2, Braylon Edwards and Steve Smith all of whom are better than Santana Moss.
Other than completing ignoring that Trufant is a good corner. It was a well thought out comment :)
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 4, 2008 9:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well i understand where your coming from
So heres the QBS Trufant went up against this year and their DVOA rank:
B. Roethlbrgr. 6th, 0 ints., Playoff team.
J. Garcia 7th, 0 ints., Playoff team.
C Palmer 11th, 0 ints.
D Brees 13th, 0 ints.
D. Andersen 15th, 0 ints., win % above .500 like the playoff teams.
So, not even 1 int. against, with little argument, the top 5 QBS trufant has faced.
From what i checked a few times now, and i could be wrong, Trufant has only 3 ints. against Arizona but you say 5.
So ill stick with the 3. So lets look where his other 4 came from.
The QBs of bulger 36th
and Frerotte 47th. 2 ints from this combo.
The QBs of Smith 50th
and Dilfer 51st. 2 ints from this combo.
by Sincethebeginning on Jan 5, 2008 2:20 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Re read my comment The 5 INT came against
We can argue numbers all we want but if I could easily upload highlights for a couple of Tru's picks in which he doesn't break coverage but still manages to grab a pick (something he has lacked in the past mainly because he would always play safe).
Trust me I wouldn't underrate his ability just because he didn't get picks against top level QB's
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 5, 2008 2:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
oh yeah my mistake
But even if you wanted to look at those 3 teams' rushing attack which makes it much much easier to reduce a team to being one dimensional.
san fran was 25th in DVOA for rushing
arizona was 26th " "
st.louis was 30th " "
Again, all seven of his ints. come from these 3 teams. which are in the bottom 25% in the NFL in that category also. He certainly had his chances against very good teams and QB's. One could argue Warner is still a decent QB though, but as i shown not in the best half of the league.
Im not saying hes not good, its just my opinion hes not an elite CB, pro bowl or not.
by Sincethebeginning on Jan 5, 2008 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A small trifle...
I think he's closer to some of those other guys than it might seem.
Obviously Holt, Johnson, Edwards and Smith have proven themselves. But I'm not entirely sold on Fitz. and Colston was inconsistent for much of the year, especially when Brees was inconsistent.
But good point on Trufant. He worries me (as I stated in the origional post) especially when quick pressure from Kerney/Peterson/etc. can allow him to jump a route or two.
by TexSkins on Jan 5, 2008 12:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ya I'm not huge on Galloway
As for Fitz watching him play against my team twice a year is not something I enjoy. He is the real deal.
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 5, 2008 2:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
No, but a sack by Kerney isnt going to
Obviously TC has been an improvement in this offense. But why, and here is why i feel teams havent been able to figure it out. TC knows this offense like no other person and while everyone can rant and rave whether it be good or bad over Todd, the one person who everyone has forgot about is Al Saunders. Todd isnt putting the game plans together, Saunders is.
Everyone is so fixated on him its not even funny, but rightfully so, as he is the QB on the field. Why is it TC who doesnt have half the talent that JC does can make this offense look so good? His arm isnt very good, hes not very mobile at all and hes 4 years from being 40. Does that sound like a nfl qb?
He goes through all his reads quickly, gets rid of it quickly and is still taking about 2 sacks per game. Yet in his 3 starts were averaging exactly 27 ppg and giving up 12.1 ppg.
I think Reche Caldwell has made some big catches lately for us and could be a factor.
I agree though that if the skins want to win we must establish the run game and we must continue to do on defense what we've been doing. If we go into zone i will turn the TV off.
I get the feeling you really dont think we'll win this game even though you pick the skins.
by Sincethebeginning on Jan 4, 2008 1:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think this is going to be a tough game...
I would have much rather played TB or DAL this weekend. I think the Skins matchup better against those teams right now. Tampa's playing poorly. Dallas is playing worse. Even the Giants, fresh off thier "moral victory" loss to the Pats, are a better matchup right now.
And all that has nothing to do with the fact that the game is in Seattle. Outside of IND and NE, that might be the biggest homefield advantage there is. I would, if pressed, even put the advantage in SEA over in NE. IND's dome is just crazy loud and the team is built to play there.
Don't ask me, ask the Skins (per Yahoo!, bold mine):
The Seahawks were 7-1 at home this season and are 34-7 at Qwest Field since Week 16 of the 2002 season. Only New England's 35-7 home mark is better during that span. Since 2001, Seattle is 42-14 at home, second only to the Patriots' 45-11.
That doesn't include the playoffs, in which the Seahawks are 3-1 at Qwest Field. That includes a 20-10 win over the Redskins in the teams' previous meeting, during the divisional playoffs in January 2006 on Seattle's way to the Super Bowl. That is Gibbs' only loss is six career games against the Seahawks.
"I think ... we went to Seattle not knowing," Washington running star Clinton Portis said. "That stadium was loud. The crowd was amazing."
Do I think the Skins can win? Yes. Do I think it'll be one hell of a game? Yes. Do I think it will be easy? No. Do I see a way the Skins can blow them out? Barring something catastrophic, not really. Do I see how the Seahawks can blow out the Skins? Yeah.
I think the Skins have a chance. That's all you want in January: a chance. Collins has to continue playing mistake free. The defense has to avoid giving up any sort of big plays or quick scores. And, somewhere along the way, the Skins need to catch some sort of break. A football bouncing just right. A jugement call going their way. An early turnover that takes the crowd out of it.
I picked the Skins with the points but I also think they'll win. In my very humble opinion, this is the most interesting, and evenly matched, game this weekend. Like everything else this year, a win is going to have to come the hard way.
by TexSkins on Jan 4, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Matchups
by A frank skinfan on Jan 4, 2008 3:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Going out on a limb
The Seahawks have no identity this year; they've been very inconsistent, and the only reason they made the playoffs is Hasselbeck. We can stop Alexander on the ground, no problem, and will do so. So they will be forced to play a passing game.
Unfortunately for Seattle, Greg Williams knows that they will have to pass, and his D is clicking on all cylinders right now. Expect to see Matt move the ball well between the 20s (there's no stopping West Coast Offense in the middle of the field when your opponent has the right personnel for it), but to get bottled up inside the red zones. What Williams lacks in his game plan will be made up for by the weather: it's going to be really rainy and windy Saturday, and that makes for dropped passes.
I will be surprised if the Seahawks get more than one touchdown tomorrow, if that. They'll have to kick a bunch of field goals.
Meanwhile, our offense is rejuvenated by having Collins as QB1, given how well he knows the Saunders playbook. Can Seattle stop Portis and Cooley and Moss and Randle-El? Not on your life. They'd be okay against a guy who can't spread the ball around, but Collins knows how to do just that. Plus our O-line has found the groove it missed for most of the season.
Skins win this one 27-16, and Portis has a 100-yard day.
by zknower on Jan 4, 2008 4:37 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Rainy + Washington can stop the run = Skins Win!
21-0 final score
by Burgundy and Gold on Jan 5, 2008 10:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
NO RAIN IN SO. CAL THIS MORNING
Will the next front come through in time for the game? The current forecast is for a 50% chance of rain all day (ie, light, intermittent rain). May not hinder as much as we'd hoped.
On the plus side, advantage to the speedy wide receivers, who know which way they're cutting. And we have some guys who can run pretty well.
by zknower on Jan 5, 2008 11:40 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Definitely
Rain or not i like are chances.
by Sincethebeginning on Jan 5, 2008 11:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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