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The Redskins understood the market. The rest of you didn't.

Dan Snyder and company received heaps of (much legitimate) criticism last year for jumping into the market with a splash, testing the waters for the rest of the League. But what was so unusual? Well, we signed 120+M dollars in contracts to Andre Carter, Adam Archuleta, Brandon Lloyd, and Antwaan Randle-El. The familiar attack was that we overpaid overpaid overpaid. And we did, given the results.

But hindsight is 20/20 and I think the Redskins spending spree of 2006 will historically be recognized as an inevitable and predictable first step that followed necessarily from the gross inflation of the Salary Cap.

Between 2005 and 2006 the Salary Cap jumped from 85M to 102M, a 20 percent increase. Player salaries and contracts were destined to balloon similarly as teams realized they had way more money available than they had ever had before. Given their failure to spend that in 2006, many teams entered 2007 with tens of thousands of dollars in Cap Space, more money than they possibly knew how to spend. The results were completely calculable: Players got paaaaaaaaaaaid.

Derrick Dockery's 49M dollar deal matched Steve Hutchison's monstrous contract of last year... which was broken by Eric Steinbach's 49.5M deal.

And now Nate Clements appears to have signed an 80M dollar deal with 22M guaranteed, exploding past conservative predictions of 15-20M. (For the record, I said that his signing bonus would be "over 22M". I eat my crow...)

2007 changes the paradigm. No longer should we suffer the endless Redskins bashing; while we made decisions that didn't pan out, our contracts seem a whole lot less crazy given what's happening right now in this seller's market. The Redskins entered 2006 knowing full well that they had 17M more dollars to spend than they had the previous year; no one else got the memo. Now that other teams are apparently on board, I think it's about time we challenged the conventional wisdom that the Redskins and spending were in a league of their own.

Still more to come.

Regarding Clements, keep a close eye on Niners Nation who will have the scoop. Apparently the 49ers had 37-42M in cap space available -- what the deuce????

And of course check out Dawgs By Nature for the word on the Steinbach deal.

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understood the market?
What's to understand? Other teams have more salary cap space than they do. That's not understanding that's just being outbid.

The skins have nobody to blame but themselves for being in the situation they are in. They have wasted draft picks for guys like Lloyd, Portis, Brunell and Duckett. They have no depth at almost every position because they didn't have those draft picks to use on players that would be ready to step up and play now. That's how the good teams do it when one of their players is signed away for a stupid amount of money (like dockery just was) they have someone they drafted waiting in the wings to step in and take over.

So excuse me for not breaking out the champagne that the skins didn't look like the biggest dopes on the first day of free agency this year for a change. When they finally hire a GM and have all 7 of their draft picks in a given year then I'll acknowledge that a change for the better has been made and they are heading in the right direction. Unfortunately I don't think we will see that day as long as the danny is running the show. He has no clue how to manage personnel and neither does anyone who works for him, including gibbs.

by pookskins on Mar 2, 2007 9:59 PM EST   0 recs

Seems a little harsh...
I understand your gripe... but I think SP's got a point here.  They put out money last year, before the market exploded, and signed the guys they wanted.  Not all of them worked out, but with the increased salary cap this year and then again next year, these contracts will seem reasonable by the time their up.

Granted, the team needs a GM.  I'm not sure that point if even debatable.  

AA was a bad signing.  But the other guys have a chance to help this team in the very near future.  I also agree with you about building throught the draft but the fact that the team is not going after the big name guys and signing cheaper players that fit their needs is a sign of progress if nothing else.

I would also argue that the pick for Portis was a "waste," as the team needed a RB at the time.  They probably wouldn't have given Bailey the crazy money he got from Denver, so I would make a case against that.  

The other picks though... you're dead on.

by TexSkins on Mar 2, 2007 10:19 PM EST to parent up   0 recs

I think you misunderstood me
I wasn't saying that the Redskins figured it out in 2007; you're absolutely right that the reason we didn't participate as actively in this free agency was due to our financial situation brought on in no small part by our spending spree last year.

I also completely agree about the Redskins mismanagement of draft picks. Perennial winners do so through the draft, and I've spoken at length about that.

The point I was making in the original post was separate from all those criticisms (which are all founded). The knee jerk reaction throughout the league last year was the Redskins went out and signed a bunch of ridiculous contracts and overpaid 4 players at 120M. I think there is some truth to that; anytime you pay a guy 1 penny more than league minimum to be your 4th Safety (Adam Archuleta) than it is clear that you've overpaid. But that is a personnel error.

Contractually the Redskins didn't do anything last year that looks ridiculous given what's happened in this year's market. And, frankly, last year's market wasn't drastically different than this year. The salary cap increased by a mere 7M, or 6.8% increase. Between 2005 and 2006 it went up by 17M -- a 20% increase. Speaking only to the size of the contracts signed in 2006, I really don't think they're nearly as objectionable as I would've felt this time last week. I think it is clear that we had all underestimated the market and the explosion the increased cap would necessarily bring to player contracts.

I would love to have a GM and have said as much countless times. I also want the team to trade down to acquire additional picks, so I think you and I are in vicious agreement about the management, or mismanagement, of our draft resources.

One of the reasons I want us to do a better job drafting is because, though we're horrible at evaluating other team's talent, the Redskins under Gibbs have done a pretty decent job evaluating talent in the draft. When you think of the few picks we have made, they've all panned out pretty well. In 2004 we picked up Sean Taylor in the first round, and he's one of the best players from that draft. Chris Cooley in the 3rd round, in hindsight, was a huge steal. Of the four picks we had, 3 are still on the team -- though admittedly Jim Molinaro might not be by the end of FA.

In 2005 we picked up Carlos Rogers and, while he experienced a sophomore slump (as did the entire D) I think he's still a serviceable starter. I believe he will one day be the #1 receiver of the team for many years, and if that's the case you have to view that pick as a success. We also grabbed Jason Campbell -- admittedly earlier than he should have gone, and giving up draft picks to do so -- but from purely a talent evaluation perspective he was a great pickup at QB in that draft. We need to see more from him this year, but nothing happened in 2006 that indicated him to be a bust or near bust. Nehemiah Broughton is still with the team.

Without a first round pick in 2006 we had little chance to make an immediate or near immediat impact with our draft class. As it happened, our 6th round pick was starting by week 3 and doing a pretty decent job. Kedric Golston was camp fodder or likely career backup material and now he's a starting DT that did surprisingly well on the field. Even Anthony Montgomery produced on field. Rocky McIntosh closed 2006 with 17 tackles in two games and by all indications should be the starter through 16 next year.

I think you've got some very legitimate criticisms of the team there, so don't take any of the above as strong disagreement with anything you said. I find myself nodding to most of it.

by Skin Patrol on Mar 3, 2007 8:41 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Yeah I have to kind of agree
though AA was a bad signing,randle el was worth it,AC was coming on strong in the second half and lloyd is still young with much upside.

docks' and clements' signings really dont make our last years blunders look that bad and with salary cap increasing we will actually be in just slighty better position the next few years though I hope they've learned a valuable lesson.

and portis is not just your everyday tailback,he got hurt because he is replied upon too much,but with betts now to share the load we have a chance to chop people down with our running game alone.

Anyways I do wish we had some more draft picks,hopefully we will improve with that in the next few years.

by Sincethebeginning on Mar 2, 2007 10:59 PM EST   0 recs

portis
I agree that portis is not your everyday RB but he isn't worth what they gave up either. The best CB of his day AND a 2nd round pick? That's insane, especially when good RB are easy to find. Good CB are not and if you don't believe that take a good look at last year. Betts stepped in and did great and without springs in the lineup the defense was horrible, partly because they don't have any other good CBs.

Don't get me wrong, I think portis is the best offensive player they have but I also think that he isn't necessary to make the offense go and that they would be better off as a team with champ bailey and whoever they got with that second round pick on the team. Yeah bailey wasn't happy here but that was mainly because he was underpaid which they could have fixed.

Maybe I didn't say it very well but what I was trying to say is that its a little early to think that anything has changed there. They still have the same boneheads making personnel decisions and that needs to be the first step in the process of change. Unfortunately I don't see that happening as long as snyder owns this team. I hope I'm wrong but I don't think I am.

by pookskins on Mar 3, 2007 6:17 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Regarding RBs
I largely agree about the fungibility of that position, though the brilliant minds at Football Outsiders have made that point more eloquently than I could a number of times.

However we do have some evidence that Portis and Betts differ substantially as runners and that we're simply better off with Portis. While it is easy to point to Betts' 1100 yards as a replacement last year as evidence that Portis is expendable, he wasn't breaking big runs or scoring touchdowns. After 566 career carries, Betts longest rush is still 27 yards. Clinton Portis' first carry as a Washington Redskin broke for 64 yards. Even with just 127 carries this year (to Betts 245) he still had 38 yarder which Betts has never accomplished.

While the suggestions by yours truly that perhaps we see a Philosophical shift in the Redskins FA strategy could just be wishful thinking on my part, remember what we didn't see: Nate Clements isn't a Redskin. Derrick Dockery's insane contract wasn't signed by us (which sucks, but it is what it is; he is no Steve Hutchison but he got Steve Hutchison's contract). Even if you think Fletcher is overpaid, he isn't the highest paid player at his position in NFL history. Adam Archuleta was. Nate Clements is.

The franchise still has plenty of time to make some additional boneheaded decisions, so I'm still worried. But if Free Agency ended tomorrow (with us picking up Smoot for a semi-reasonable contract) I would view it as a victory if only because we didn't do anything catastrophically silly. Last year there wasn't any logical limit to how much we appeared willing to spend. This year there were players available at positions we needed and we clearly could not compete for them given financial concerns. That the Washington Redskins were outbid for any player they wanted was evidence to me that this franchise operates under financial limits. Those limits might be ridiculously irresponsible, but at least they exist. I don't think I could've said the same thing last year.

by Skin Patrol on Mar 3, 2007 10:01 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

Also,
because I really feel as if I'm playing Redskins Cheerleader right now -- and that's not what I want to do -- I encourage you to look around the site. You'll find countless posts by me questioning the strategy of this team and lamenting, with many fans, the countless poor decisions we've made in recent years.

Thanks again for your comments, glad to have you here.

by Skin Patrol on Mar 3, 2007 10:08 AM EST to parent up   0 recs

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