Investigating the Mark Brunell Enigma

by Skin Patrol on Oct 24, 2006 1:53 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 7 comments

Redskins fans high and low are questioning both sides of this football team. A formerly dominant defense is producing few turnovers and cannot stop opposing teams from marching effortlessly down the field. After relinquishing the lead we helplessly allow our opponents to pile up rushing yards.

Our offensive woes have probably not driven our record as much as our defensive ones, but they are more frustrating for fans. So many 3rd and longs failed because we throw check downs to short receivers combined with a complete unwillingness to throw the ball deep (or remain committed to the run) has many wondering what can be done. Our roster on offense is unquestionably talented with skill position stars like Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, and Chris Cooley. Combined with Antwaan Randle-El, Brandon Lloyd, and backup tailbacks Ladell Betts and TJ Duckett, and many wonder why this team struggles offensively at all.

I had proposed last week that our signal caller was the failure of this offense and that perhaps 1st round pick Jason Campbell should be given the opportunity to lead this offense. One of my main criticisms was that Mark Brunell had not made any throws that Campbell was incapable of making and that our dink-and-dunk, largely a product of Mark Brunell's hurried checkdowns to his backup receiving options, wasn't going to win us any games.

This has been argued elsewhere on message boards and columns and the common response is: But Mark Brunell is actually a great quarterback! Didn't you know that he is 9th in total yards and 11th in QB rating in the NFL?

I am shocked by those numbers. Anyone and everyone watching Redskins games knows that Brunell has been a let down thus far. So how do we account for these numbers? Are we just impatient for the rise of Jason Campbell or is there more to these stats than meets the eye?

As it turns out, there is.

Mentioned above was that our main criticism with Brunell is his short passing. Much of that QB rating is bolstered by the fact that he completes a high percentage of very easy passes to open receivers on short routes... who are quickly smothered on or near the line of scrimmage by 2-3 defenders. Much of that QB rating has to do with an overachieving Santana Moss breaking two big plays against Jacksonville. Despite all that, I still insisted that Mark Brunell just was not throwing the ball deep enough to keep defenses honest. They could crowd the line and dare Brunell to throw deep knowing full well he wouldn't even attempt to do so unless the situation was incredibly dire. I give you the evidence:

I wanted to compare statistically how many yards a player has in relation to how many Yards After the Catch they pick up from their receivers. Below please find the Quarterback with his Total Passing Yards - Yards After Catch = Total Yards Ball Passed in the Air on Completions.

Donovan McNabb 2162 - 966 = 1196
Jon Kitna 1853 - 926 = 927
Peyton Manning 1620 - 480 = 1140
Marc Bulger 1619 - 717 = 902
Jake Delhomme 1581 - 560 = 1021
Eli Manning 1518 - 463 = 1055
Drew Brees 1509 - 809 = 700
Brett Favre 1511 - 745 = 766
Mark Brunell 1465 - 864 = 601
Chad Pennington 1450 - 620 = 830
Carson Palmer 1418 - 470 = 948
Rex Grossman 1387 - 514 = 873
Phillip Rivers 1330 - 497 = 833
JP Losman 1314 - 601 = 713
Brad Johnson 1299 - 560 = 739
Alex Smith 1285 - 703 = 582
Matt Hassleback 1249 - 406 = 843
Tom Brady 1226 - 527 = 699
David Carr 1217 - 614 = 603
Charlie Frye 1188 - 625 = 563
Drew Bledsoe 1164 - 444 = 720

A 9th overall ranking in total yards turns into (among the 21 I was willing to measure) a 19th overall -- in front of only Charlie Frye and Alex Smith.

Consider this as well. Brunell's 2nd favorite target on this team is Ladell Betts, who has 23 receptions to Santana Moss' 28 (followed by Cooley with 21 and ARE with 18). Ladell Betts has 193 yards this season but, amazingly has 215 yards after the catch meaning he's caught the ball more behind the line of scrimmage than he has in front of it.

This isn't all together troubling as that is the case with a number (by no means all) running backs. But it does tell a story that Redskins fans know all too well; on 3rd and long Brunell steps back... and dumps it to Betts behind the line of scrimmage. The result is a punt, and with Derrick Frost on duty this isn't that much better than a deep interception.

Mark Brunell has gotten nearly 60% of his passing yards after the catch, a higher percentage than any other qb listed above. Even the two with fewer yards traveled in the air, Frye and Smith, have lower percentages -- 53% and 55% respectively.

Yes Mark Brunell has a high completion % and yes he has a high QB rating. But no other qb listed above has benefitted more from his receivers than Brunell. And replacing Mark with Jason Campbell won't suddenly make these receivers forget how to run down the field after a catch.

In Washington our defense is the problem and Mark Brunell is not the answer. It is time we abandon our dink-and-dunk gameplan for a deep passing game that takes full advantage of our explosive offensive talent. A deeper passing game with a quarterback who can deliver the ball quickly and avoid pressure in the pocket is the only way we will put up the 30+ points a game necessary to win in this league opposite this defense. Given the amount of talent on this team there is absolutely no excuse for our mediocre production. The only reason we've been this good thus far is because our receivers, tight ends, and running backs have been over achieving against virtually all other units in the league. They deserve the quarterback of the future.

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YAC

Low-YAC is why we lost to Minnesota and Dallas. I commented on this early on the season here. Now it's the inability to gain yards on plays other than screens is what is killing us. Defenses have adjusted to the dumps, and the vertical game has not worked, either.

Something's gotta' give.

by Burgundy and Gold on Oct 24, 2006 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fact is

At nearly 60% of total passing yards, the Redskins have the highest % of YAC to Total Passing Yards of any team in the league. This points to an incredibly talented receiving unit that just isn't getting the ball in places where it can win the game for us. Hustling for 5 yards after the catch when you get the ball 2 yards behind the line of scrimmage on 3rd and 9 is impressive, but ultimatey as fruitless as an incomplete pass.

The reason the vertical game has not worked is because it hasn't existed. Teams can dare us to throw deep... because we won't.

Then it's just a function of getting the slightest bit of pressure on Brunell and waiting for him to dump it to someone 5-9 yards short of the first down. Then it's a 2 on 1 tackling situation (as we have useless receivers down the field in deep passing routes, like Brunell could get it to them anyways) for the defense. Punt. Repeat.

by Skin Patrol on Oct 24, 2006 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

About this

You said "Teams can dare us to throw deep... because we won't."

I would partially disagree with this, b ut also agree, but with hesitation. Let me just explain.

The first half against the Colts, Brunell did throw the ball downfield. The Colts dared him to, as you say, and he did. And the team moved the ball and scored points and overcame terrible penalties to actually lead at half.

Second half, different story. Brunell went into his shell, dumped the ball off so as not to get hit, the offense stalled and the team did scvore again until... hey! they started throwing downfield to try a last gasp comeback.

So, my point is that the team can throw the ball downfield. Brunell does and the offense clicks. But somewhere along the way, he just stops. I have no idea why. That, to me, is the most frustrating part: it's not an inability on the offense's part, but a lack of effort.

At this point, I'd rather feel that Brunell is unable because I'd have a lot less frustation then having this glimmer of hope slowly crushed over the course of every game.

But maybe that's just the feeling of being a Skins fan.

by TexSkins on Oct 24, 2006 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

When I talk about throwing the ball down the field

I mean throwing it deep in the air. I'm talking about plays where the receiver could get behind a defender and take it to the house.

The Redskins had one reception over 20 yards. The Colts had five receivers with receptions over 20 yards.

In the last drive Brunell was throwing intermediate passes to a prevent Colts defense, which is great because all your receivers are wide open. The problem is, when trailing 36-14 with about 5 minutes left in the game, a 14 play 4:23 drive is not going to yield a comeback. This is exactly why teams play prevent; they want you to make foolish short completions in the middle of the field to eat up clock.

The NFL began categorizing passes in their play-by-plays for the first time this year. They actually list "short pass" and "long pass". Long passes are, I believe, anything that travels 15 or more yards in the air. Mark Brunell attempted 5 "long" passes in the game (3 in the second half) and completed exactly one of them. And it wasn't that long, it was a 30 yard reception from ARE, which happened to be the longest in the game.

3 deep passes in the 2nd half, when you're down by 3 possessions is not how you win games. We've consistently attempted fewer deep passes than all our opponents even in games where we are fighting against a lead the entire game. And we complete a lower percentage of these deep passes than other teams.

by Skin Patrol on Oct 25, 2006 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well put together

A citation of your statistical source would be nice. I'd like to see what else I could glean from this.

BTW, my reply to this post was clocking in at 8 grafs, so I posted it up on Curly R.

=====The Curly R: Blogging the Redskins=====

by thatguyben on Oct 25, 2006 12:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Thankfully

CNNSI keeps track of Yards After The Catch. Find an example of those statistics here.

Some of my numbers were slightly off because I could not distinguish between which QB (a few teams gave their backups reps, unlike us) was the beneficiary of the YACs. But if my numbers are skewed they are skewed in favor of the opposing conclusion, that some other QB has more YACs.

The fact is, no team in the entire NFL gets 59% of its passing yards from YACs... except for the Washington Redskins.

by Skin Patrol on Oct 25, 2006 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs