A whole season comes down to one game to determine whether or not a team plays in the biggest game or goes home just short.  The games in Foxboro and Green Bay should be pretty exciting... and cold.  Weather.com says that the weather at Foxboro should be in the high teens or low 20s and windy, while the weather in Green Bay should be a hign of 6 degrees and windy.  Cold and windy means perfect playoff weather.  I hope it snows in one of the two games; watching the Seattle/Green Bay game was just plain fun.

PREVIEW

San Diego @ New England (-14) - 3:00 pm EST on CBS.

Hugging like old friends on a Sunday afternoon. (Picture from here.)

The first game on Sunday, just like the other game, is a rematch of Week 2 action.  New England won 38-14 after leading 24-0 at half.  San Diego, which started the year 1-3, was never in the game at all.  Tomlinson was held to 43 yards on 18 carries while Rivers was 19 of 30 for 179 yards, including 2 TDs, 2 INTs (one of which Adalius Thomas returned 65 yards for a TD), a lost fumble and 3 sacks.

On the other side, Brady went 25 of 31 for 279 yards with 3 TDs, 1 INT, and a sack.  Maroney had an average day, with 15 rushes for 77 yards, while a then healthy Sammy Morris added 10 rushes for 51 yards and a TD.  Oh, and Moss only had 8 catches for 105 yards and 2 TDs.

Last weekend, the Pats looked in control nearly the entire game.  Jacksonville never really got their running game going and without that, they didn't stand a chance.  Brady's too good for a team to win without having the strength of their own offense working.  San Diego has to run to have a chance.

On the other hand, San Diego knocked off the defending champions with their best players (Gates, LT, Rivers) either extremely hampered by injuries or on the sidelines for long periods of time.  Billy freaking Volek led the Chargers down the stretch and the San Diego defense came up huge in the win.  (Full Disclaimer: I'm a big Volek fan and have not understood why he never got a starting shot after leaving TEN.)

For the Chargers to win, they need the defense to come up big.  Like, wicked big.  Oh, and Igor Olshansky probably didn't help anything.

This whole Randy Moss situation would probably be a distraction... if it wasn't the Patriots.  The machine continues on.

PREDICTION

The line right now over at Yahoo! is 14, which seems low, even for a Championship game.  New England has been just plain dominant and most of the stars for San Diego are banged up pretty good.  My guess, Brady and Co. pile it on and rub it in to the talking Chargers.

I'll take the Pats to win and cover.  If San Diego isn't ready, this could get very ugly very quickly.

PREVIEW

New York (Football) Giants @ Green Bay Packers (-7) - 6:30 pm EST on Fox.

Head pats and ass slaps, one last time. (Image from here.)

The second game is a rematch of a Week 2 35-13 win by the Packers.  Farve was 29 of 38 for 286 yards, with 3 TDs, 1 INT, and 1 sack.  DeShawn Wynn had 10 rushes for 50 yards and 2 TDs while Brandon Jackson added 17 rushes for 35 yards.  Ryan Grant has added so much to this offense.  Rookie WR Jones led the way with 4 catches for 75 yards, while Donald Driver, Donald Lee and Bubba Franks all had TD receptions.

On the other side, Eli had a rough day, going 16 of 29 for 211 yards with 1 TD, 1 INT and 1 sack.  Backup QBs Lorenzen and Wright also saw some action.  RB Ward had 15 rushes for 90 yards.  Shockey had a team leading 5 receptions and 60 yards, and Burress had a TD.

Like I said earlier, Ryan Grant has given the Packers a new dimension of a consistent running game, which only helps out Farve and the passing game.  Farve doesn't have to win the game, but only "manage" it.  I hate that term in most instances, but here it is different.  He can take his shots down the field.  He can scramble and make plays.  He just doesn't have to force the ball.  Most times when a QB is asked to "manage the game", it is because he doesn't have the ability to do a whole lot else.  Not the case here.

Eli, on the other hand, can't make mistakes.  He has avoided the costly plays in this recent run, which is why the Giants are playing for a shot at the Super Bowl.  The running game is much different with Jacobs now than it was with Ward in the first meeting.

But the biggest difference is the Giants defense.  They have come alive under 1st year DC Spagnuolo.  They get pressure on the QB.  They force mistakes.  If Strahan, Umenyiora, Tuck and Co. can get to Farve, then the Giants have a shot.  If not, the decimated secondary (Ross is day-to-day, Dockery is Out, Madison is Doubtful) is in for a very, very long day.

PREDICTION

The current spread from Yahoo! is 7, the same line as last weekend's game in Green Bay.  The Giants have been playing well, but their secondary worries me.

I like the Packers to win and cover.  The Giants will be in it until the end, but I think the passing attack from green Bay is just too much.

As always, let me know what you think.  Pats-Packers Super Bowl?  You see an upset this weekend?

I have to go to work soon, so we'll make this short and sweet.  Also, consider this you Divisional Weekend Open Thread unless SP decides to make another one.  A better one.

The games begin later today, around 4:30 pm EST in Green Bay.  The games (and lines) are as follows, according to the lines over at Yahoo! Sports:

SATURDAY

SEA @ GB (+7.5) - 4:30 EST on Fox
JAX @ NE (+13.5) - 8:00 EST on CBS

SUNDAY

SD @ IND (+9) - 1:00 EST on CBS
NYG @ DAL (+7.5) - 4:30 EST on Fox

QUICK PREDICTION

I'll take all the home teams to win and cover, save for the Cowboys.  I think they win, but the Giants cover.  It will be the only close game this weekend, unless Farve has one of those games.  I don't expect him to but you never can know.

All this talk about how JAX can beat Brady is poppycock and they'll be down 21 early and won't be able to run the ball.

SD is without Gates.  Manning will NOT throw 6 INTs to keep SD in the game.  Oh, and Harrison is back.  SD doesn't stand a chance.

The final game is the most interesting.  Some people in the media are calling for a Giants straight up win.  Not so fast my friend.  TO was in practice.  He felt so good, he had the trainer cut off the extra tape on the ankle.  Terry Glenn is back, and healthy enough to do some damage.  Romo is rested and relaxed.

Don't believe me, check it out:

He's looking at her, she's looking like she just got her cookie. (Picture from here.)

Rested and relaxed.

As always, your thoughts and comments are welcome below.

The regular season comes to a close with a bunch of meaningless games.  TEN and WAS control their destiny in their respective Wild Card races, while TEN, MIN, and NO need help.  Who would of thought that in Week 17, the Browns even had a shot at the playoffs.  Big ups to Romeo and his team.

SD and PIT are fighting for 3rd in the AFC, hoping to avoid going to Foxboro in the 2nd round of the playoffs.  The "winner" gets a trip to Indy to visit the defending champs.  That aside, playing JAX in the 1st round will be a challenge.

Without further ado, this week's picks:

SATURDAY

NE (-13.5) @ NYG - 0-1 to start the week.

SUNDAY

STL @ ARZ (-6)

SEA @ ATL (EVEN)

CAR (-3) @ TB

CIN (-2.5) @ MIA

SF @ CLE (-12)

DET @ GB (-5)

JAX @ HOU (-6.5)

MIN (-3) @ DEN

NO (-1.5) @ CHI

KC @ NYJ (-6)

BUF @ PHI (-8)

PIT (-3) @ BAL

SD (-8.5) @ OAK

TEN (-5) @ IND

DAL @ WAS (-9)

SP's late, as usual.

SP and I both started the week with wins in the PIT game.  The rest of the picks below.

Thursday
PIT (-7.5) @ STL

Saturday
DAL (-10.5) @ CAR

Sunday
ATL @ ARZ (-10)

CLE (-2.5) @ CIN

KC @ DET (-4.5)

GB (-8.5) @ CHI

HOU @ IND (-7)

OAK @ JAX (-13)

WAS @ MIN (-6.5)

MIA @ NE (-22)

PHI @ NO (-3)

NYG (-2.5) @ BUF

BAL @ SEA (off the board = EVEN)

TB (-5.5) @ SF

NYJ @ TEN (-8.5)

Monday
DEN @ SD (-8.5)

I think BUF wins straight up, but I'll take the 2.5.  My brother thinks I'm an idiot for taking HOU, but I think IND wins by a field goal.

As always, I take to many road teams.  What says you (and your sparkly dildo) SP?

First item up appreciates Curly R's plea for Dan Reeves to get a job:

I'm sure that's true of many a great football mind, for instance one of my favorite coaches and Redskins-ex Walk it off, Marty!. I'll probably receive heaping big criticism as I've met a non-trivial amount of Redskins fans who aren't that crazy about the Schottenheimer. Admittedly, he is comparably charismatic to a galapagos turtle that spits whilst talking, but the man won 200 football games and bats .613 in the regular season. There are four coaches in NFL history who can say they've won more regular season games, and they are: George Halas, Don Shula, Tom Landry, and Curly Lambeau. Did you know that George Halas had more losing seasons than Marty Schottenheimer? Ditto on Curly Lambeau, who also won fewer postseason games than Marty? Ditto on Tom Landry, who also once went an entire season without a W, and who also won a smaller percentage of his games than Marty? And none of those guys did their thing in the age of parity, where Marty has faired just dandy.

Am I saying he's comparable to those guys? Nah, maybe, but I am not taking anything away from those great coaches. But mind the company, won't you? For reasons that escape me, the water cooler class -- of which I am a member -- looks at his 5-13 postseason record as measure of the man and not to his 200-126-1 record through four cities over the course of 3 decades managing only two losing years in 21 seasons and concludes, wrongly from where I'm sitting, that he's not that swell. Great coach. Somehow a 1-5 Redskins team gets turned into an 8-8 not-loser that gets worse by matters of degree as soon as Marty is asked to vacate the premises. We were stupid to send him off, in my opinion. Now let me have it.

Bad picks, lines complement Post Game Heroes (good picks are above):

Denver at Houston (+1.5)
I already successfully picked Houston.

Cincinnati at San Francisco (+8)
San Fransisco!

Baltimore at Miami (+3.5)
Baltimore

Buffalo at Cleveland (-5.5)
Cleveland, unless they blow it like we did.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-10.5)
Philly

Green Bay at St. Louis (+9.5)
Green Bay

Indianapolis at Oakland (+10.5)
Indy

NY Jets at New England (-23)
NYJ <-- $$$ bad pick

Arizona at New Orleans (-3.5)
Arizona straight up, wishful thinking

Washington at NY Giants (-4.5)
Washington

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
Pitt

Detroit at San Diego (-10)
Detroit. Relating to above, I've seen Norval Turner and have picked against San Diego in virtually every game this year as a result. I do not think he is a great coach.

Seattle at Carolina (+7.5)
Seattle

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-13.5)
Atlanta with the new coach. Did you guys see how the Falcons players were responding to their coach fleeing? Hilarious stuff. "Tend to get a little angry." Enjoy:

Scott Van Pelt disingenuously says "I hate to use battle analogies, because it is just football..." He must have practiced that in the mirror 100 times to nail it without breaking stoic. Give me a break, Scott; we both love football which means, by extension, that we both love to use battle analogies because it is just football, and that's how you pine important on games. Even chess players know that. Pawn takes knight, beeeeyoooootch!

Tennessee at Kansas City (+4)
Tenn

Chicago at Minnesota (-10)
Minnesota, I need them to do great to boost our BCS standing.

Finally, here is an outstanding reason to watch Hockey, which I have been totally down on for some time and am seriously considering getting myself back into the sport only on this. Post Game Heroes found this video of Gary Roberts vs. Ben Eagers (who is an enforcer, I believe?) that requires some additional commentary. First, though, some background: I used to play NHL '93 and '94 like my eternal religious soul depended on it, and my team wayback were them Calgary Flames. Fleury was also on those teams. My goalie was Mike Vernon. A dishonest youth keeps me from remembering anything more, but suffice to say Gary Roberts has a special place in my nerd-history because of what he helped me win circa ~ 1994. Did you know he was averaging 10 minutes of penalties a game in 1994-1995? Effing outstanding. And here's what he this week:

They should just play the video and then flash the NHL logo at the end to advertise the league. We'd all be watching, or crazy not to, hockey games within seconds. The fight itself is only half-spectacular excepting the fact that Gary Roberts is a 41 year old -- a full year older than Oklahoma State CFB coach Mike Gundy, I might add, who demanded you attack him for that reason -- picking on some young pup who may or may not be a team's enforcer. But that this isn't that remarkable a fight is what makes it so special; the announcers aren't even that excitable even when two players are throwing down. This is a reason to watch hockey. My two favorite moments, 1) at the end of the video one of broadcasters determines a momentum shift is taking place BECAUSE Gary Roberts won this fight. 2) Awesome, awesome moment at 25 seconds in. The one mentions Gary Roberts is throwing lefts, is 41 years old. Pause. The other says, "That's leadership."

In this society gone soft that sure is leadership. I like my 41 year old athletes ornery as shit and ready to pugil. Hail to you, Gary Roberts, hail to leadership. Pittsburgh plays the Islanders at 7PM Eastern, just sayin'.

I kind of like them odds. But they aren't mine, they belong to Sports Club Stats. Ken from SCS emailed me and was wondering how to improve on the site so I figured I'd release the hounds (you) to go answer that question on my behalf. Their metric doesn't necessarily make much sense to me, but nothing makes much sense to me as I've spent the past few hours studying dutifully for final exams.

I don't know if this adds anything to the impressive discussion between Burgundy and Gold and zknower, but I'm nominating them as resident playoff scenario gurus from here on out, in charge of updating the rest of us on what's important to the Redskins. Blitzburgh is invited to join them, as he's been more optimistic about the Redskins playoffs hopes than even us actual Redskins fans.

1 in 5 ain't so bad.

Remember, this is also the first week of the First Annual HHFL playoffs.  Its about that time of year.

Thursday
CHI @ WAS (-3)

Sunday
MIA @ BUF (-7)

STL @ CIN (-6.5)

CLE (-3) @ NYJ

DAL (-10.5) @ DET

KC @ DEN (-6.5)

OAK @ GB (-10) - For the first time, like, ever... I have more faith in the OAK QB situation than the GB one.

IND (-9) @ BAL

CAR @ JAX (-10.5)

MIN (-9) @ SF

PIT @ NE (-10.5)

NYG @ PHI (-3)

ARZ @ SEA (-7)

TB (-3) @ HOU

SD @ TEN (EVEN)

Monday
NO (-4) @ ATL

I always pick too many road teams.

The on again, off again pattern of SP means he might actually pick this week.  We'll see.

Lines courtesy of Post Game Heroes.

NY Jets at Dallas (-14)--- DAL

Green Bay at Detroit (+3.5)--- GB

Indianapolis at Atlanta (+11.5)--- ATL

San Fran at Arizona (-10.5)--- ARI

Denver at Chicago (-1.5)--- DEN

Houston at Cleveland (-3.5)---CLE

Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8)---JAX

Oakland at Kansas City (+5.5)--- KC

Philly at New England (-22)--- NE.  Why not?

New Orleans at Carolina (+3)--- CAR

Minnesota at Giants (-7)--- NYG

Baltimore at San Diego (-9.5)-- BAL

Seattle at St. Louis (+3)-- SEA

Washington at Tampa Bay (-3) WAS

Tennessee at Cincinnati (+1.5) TEN

Miami at Pittsburgh (-16) PIT

How'd we do?

I've got to run, but here are my picks very fast like.  Courtesy Ben over at the Squiggly Letter Between Q and S.

Sunday
ARZ @ CIN (-3)

CLE (-3) @ BAL

WAS @ DAL (-10.5)

CAR @ GB (-9.5)

NO @ HOU (-1)

KC @ IND (-14.5)

SD @ JAX (-3)

OAK @ MIN (-5): Dante's Revenge.

NE (-16) @ BUF

NYG (-3) @ DET

MIA @ PHI (-10)

PIT (-9.5) @ NYJ

CHI @ SEA (-5.5)

STL (-3) @ SF

TB (-3) @ ATL

Monday
TEN @ DEN (-3)

As always, post thoughts below.

We're all waiting for SP's breakout week.  Could it be this one?  History says no but my gut says... well, no.  Anyway, the games and my picks.  Skin Patrol's on the way (unless he disappears again) before the weekend.  Lines courtesy of Post Game Heroes.

Detroit at Arizona (-1): DET

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-4): BAL

Buffalo at Miami (+3): BUF

Atlanta at Carolina (-4): CAR (I gave my girlfriend the choice on this one.  Both teams suck, so I'm tempted to gtake the points.  But then again, CAR's at home and Cowboy castoff Matt Moore is slotted to start.  Rumors have it he's pretty good.  He struggles but they still win by a TD.)

Chicago at Oakland (+3.5): OAK

Dallas at NY Giants (+1.5): DAL

Minnesota at Green Bay (-6): GB

Indianapolis at San Diego (+3.5): IND

Denver at Kansas City (-3): KC

St. Louis at New Orleans (-11.5): NO

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-9.5): CLE (I think PIT wins, but not by 10.)

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4): JAX

Philadelphia at Washington (-3): WAS

San Francisco at Seattle (-10): SF

Some tough lines.