Well, the AFC picks are in and thankfully not everyone agreed with my selections. That wouldn't be fun now would it? I do think Cincinnati is going to be this year's surprise out of the AFC ( I guess the whole NFL if they do make the playoffs), and I do think Baltimore and Miami will be teams that fail to improve on what they did last season. Then again, what do I know...I thought that Tony Romo and Jessica Simpson were forever. I mean, if a quasi-talented, over-publicized diva who has really never done anything professionally to write home about and Jessica Simpson can't make it last, what hope do the rest of us have?

via www.popcrunch.com

As you know from yesterday, our formula for picking playoff teams in July is make an argument for a couple favorites, a couple head coaches and a couple surprises. I cheated of course and added in the San Diego Chargers as a default team but I invoked the Norv Turner rule, which says that if you mix a good thing together with Norv Turner, everything shall be ruined and never go according to plan. Thankfully, we live in a Norv-free NFC. Here are the NFC predictions:

Favorites:

New York Giants: Is it just me or are the Dallas Cowgirls and the Philadelphia Eagles getting way too much press this off-season? The Giants are the class of the NFC East and I don't think it is close. They get Osi Umenyiora back this season to bolster an already violent pass rush. Eli, in all of his toothy glory, is good enough to guide that offense to more than enough points to stake that defense to a lead they can protect. They are well-coached, they have an excellent ground game with a punishing feature back in Brandon Jacobs and they picked up a wide receiver that I fear is going to have a pretty good year in Hakeem Nicks (and let's hope Ramses Barden still needs a LOT of polish.) The potential for major slippage from the last couple years is minimal with this squad.

via i.a.cnn.net

Minnesota Vikings: I am completely convinced Brett Favre will be wearing purple this season. And I think his presence will make this team a prohibitive favorite on most Sundays. On Ahman Green's best day, he was no Adrian Peterson. Favre will have A.P., Chester Taylor, and one of the top five offensive lines in the league. The Vikings trot out the Williams' brothers on defense. Pat Williams and Kevin Williams comprise one of the top run-stuffing DT duos out there and Jared Allen is one of those "high-motor" guys coming off the edge. Antoine Winfield is a quality corner and Chad Greenway and E.J. Henderson solidify a better than average linebacking group. If Favre can maximize the talents of their receiving corps, this team should coast into the postseason.

Head Coaches:

Arizona Cardinals: The NFC is a little bit different of a beast than the AFC in this category. You can't tap a Jeff Fisher or a Bill Belichick in the NFC after getting out of the favorites section. But Ken Whisenhunt has really shown us something right? I mean, he took the Arizona Cardinals to the big dance. Of course, he was a Washington Redskin player back in 1989-90. And he does have Russ Grimm on his staff as the assistant head coach. So his Redskins ties help him immensely here. He enjoyed the benefit of a weak division last season but when he got to the playoffs, he shocked us all by laying the wood to the Carolina Panthers, in Carolina. The time he spent under Bill Cowher and last year's Super Bowl run give him the cred in this category.

via blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com

New Orleans Saints: The temptation is to go with Andy Reid here. And he deserves it. But I am putting Philly in the same category as Baltimore and Miami--a team that will take a step backward next year. Instead, I am going with the 2006 NFL Coach of the Year Sean Payton. Sure, the Saints finished 8-8 last year, but I have them adding anywhere from 2-4 more wins to that record this season. Drew Brees is an absolute stud. It's like watching a flag football game when he's out there and everyone is an eligible receiver. He distributes his balls around the field like Charlie Sheen at a Playboy mansion party. His stable of receivers/tight ends/Reggie Bush is enviable: Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson, Robert Meachem, Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. Pierre Thomas is a guy you may want to take a hard look at in fantasy leagues this year. Even if Reggie can stay healthy, I see Thomas getting a lot of carries. Defensively, they have talent, and this year they hope that Gregg Williams can maximize it. Sean Payton is a sharp dude. He has the Saints thinking they are a good team and this year they will prove it by advancing to the playoffs after last year's disappointing finish.

Surprises:

Green Bay Packers: I was thinking either Tampa Bay or Green Bay here. The Pack was 6-10 as opposed to the Bucs 9-7 finish, making Green Bay the bigger surprise to come back and make the playoffs. Not to mention picking both Atlanta and Carolina to get whupped on by Tampa Bay and New Orleans was a stretch even for me. I like Mike McCarthy. I like Aaron Rodgers. Ryan Grant saved my fantasy football season two years ago. This team was one bad throw away from getting to the Super Bowl two years ago. I think what happened last year was more about karma than anything else. Not that they necessarily deserved to go 6-10, but all of the off-season crap as well as a few injuries conspired to suppress their chances on the field. I really like this defense. A.J. Hawk can make plays. Their cornerback combo of Charles Woodson and Al Harris is as good as you could ask for, and putting Aaron Kampman at LB in the 3-4 should make them a pretty dangerous unit. The best part of this pick to me is that it means that not only will the two regular season games between Minnesota and Green Bay be meaningful, but they could actually meet in the playoffs.

Washington Redskins: Oh come on...you didn't think I would leave us out did you? This is exactly the kind of team that surprises the league every year. Nobody is picking them to make much noise at all, yet if you look at their roster and what they did last year, there is plenty to suggest that they could be this year's version of the Atlanta Falcons. You may argue that in the entire NFC, only one team scored less points than the Redskins last season (St. Louis Rams.) Our offense was a little anemic, especially as the season wore on. But on defense, only one team allowed less points than the Redskins (New York Giants.) The lack of attention this defensive unit gets baffles me. I sort of get it...I mean we have been rather irrelevant on the NFL landscape for a while now, but this defense is nasty. The season will hinge on the year-over-year improvement the offense can make. Jim Zorn has to prove he can extract nothing short of the best possible quarterback Jason Campbell is capable of becoming, and the young receivers--Devin Thomas, Malcolm Kelly, and Fred Davis--need to contribute early and often.

There you have it. We left some good teams on the sidelines. Jacksonville, Baltimore, Miami, Dallas and Philadelphia all have legitimate arguments to be included in these kinds of predictions. I think a team that will make a huge leap this year is the San Francisco 49ers, but I am not sold on their passing game, and wonder if they can score the points necessary to get into the playoffs (though they did outscore the Redskins last year by about 10 TD's.) It is only July though, so the whole exercise of picking playoff teams right now is somewhat absurd and even feckless. But I like my formula of two favorites, two head coaches, and two surprises from each conference. Who would you change from these picks and why?

I do want to talk about playoffs, Jim. The Baseball All-Star break is when I like to make my off-season NFL playoff predictions. Speaking of the mid-summer classic, can we just take a second and take note of the Home Run Derby? Was anyone else bored to tears? One contestant, Nelson Cruz, went 3 hours between swings. Things I could do in that time:

1) Have sex 5,786 times

2) Have 879 meaningful conversations with friends of mine
Me: "Dude."
Friend: "You too, dude."

3) Decide to get serious about dieting and exercise

4) Decide that "Organic" Cookies and Cream ice cream fits into my new dietary outlook

5) Scrap my new healthy outlook in favor of adding hot fudge, brownies and whipped cream to my "Organic" ice cream.

6) Piss off my wife no less than a dozen times
Wife: "What kind of game is this? Is the guy throwing the pitches trying to throw it hard? Why is that big net in front of the pitcher? And what is with all the kids on the field? Can't they get seriously injured? Why is that guy wiping the other guy's sweat off of his head?"
Me: "I'm sorry, did you just ask me a question?"

7) Conceive my 2009 NFL Playoff picture.

Much like the weather in the mid-Atlantic region at this time of year, the art of picking playoff teams in July is hot and sticky (assuming we don't live in Bizarro World where mid-July temps hit highs of 79,80 and 81 degrees.) You have to lean on a couple favorites. You have to lean on a couple head coaches. And you have to pick a couple of surprises. That said, my 2009 NFL Playoff predictions:

Let's start with the AFC. Keep in mind that the only thing more foolish than picking playoff teams right now is picking the order in which they will qualify (i.e. who has home-field advantage). OK, that's a lie...there are plenty of more foolish things and I have engaged in a good number of them, but for the purpose of this article, please treat the six teams from each conference as equal. If it helps, think of each team as a moderately attractive, disease-free girl that--after a few adult beverages--is indistinguishable from the group. You would be happy to take one home and would most likely consider beginning a potentially life-ruining relationship with any of them. We start with the favorites after the jump..

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A few years ago Dan Steinberg suggested that we hand the enormously consequential BCS rankings over to Vegas:

I asked another LSVC oddsmaker, Sean Van Patten, whether the OddsMakers Top 25 would be a better guide for picking the national champion than the various polls.

"I would say so, yeah," he said, "because theirs is basically based on record, and that's pretty much it. Our guys, they rate out the defense, the offense, so really their numbers are more of an indicator of how good those teams are. And, of course, it's all done for betting purposes, but that's really the telltale sign: is a team three points better or is it three points worse?"

I think it's genius. Many apologies if this has been extensively covered elsewhere, but I don't see how you could argue with this. If the oddsmakers say West Virginia is the 13th-best team in the country (as they do), how can they possibly be considered for the national championship game? And if the oddsmakers say Texas is the second-best team (as they do), well, get ready for a Ohio State-Texas rematch.

Uhm, I agree? The difference between this and a coach's poll or AP poll is that the Vegas people have a financial stake in the outcome which makes them more reliable. Water coolers around the betting nation are inundated with talk of "Can you believe how close the line was?" Nobody in the country follows the important parts of sports (the results) more closely than Vegas odds makers.

Now Dan has the NFL vegas power poll. For all the reasons that it makes sense in College, it makes sense double time in the pros to rely more heavily on a Vegas Power Poll than anyone else's. Far more sense, actually, because NFL lines are more reliable given that there's simply not an easy way to accumulate data on Chatanooga East State University Tech College. But we've all seen the Chiefs and Rams play.

Anyways, they rank the Redskins at [12. Washington 138.7], about 8 points below the Dallas Cowboys -- rankings are supposed to reflect how much of an underewok  a team would be on neutral ground. More remarkable than the Redskins, though, is where the NFC East shakes out up top:

1. Dallas 146.7
2. San Diego 143.1
3. Philadelphia 142.4
4. N.Y. Giants 142.1

Which means, per Las Vegas, Dallas, Philly, and the Giants would be favored over every team in the league on neutral field, excepting the Chargers.

Our 12th ranking actually squares pretty closely with most, though Vegas is giving us a slight edge over the conventional wisdom:

Some more rankings from around the Web: ESPN.com says Washington is 15th, the Football Outsiders' math stuff says Washington is 16th, Sportsline says Washington is 12th, SI.com says Washington is 10th, and Fox Sports says Washington is 14th.

If we conveniently win and lose by the appropriate Vegas mandated margins for the remainder of the season, Steinberg says we'd be 9-7. Presuming likewise production from Eagles, Cowboys, and Giants, this would be an NFC East without a losing team. Epic.

(Remember: Ewoks, like the Redskins at Texas Stadium in 2005, were not favored to win, either.)

(You are not reading about this because I refuse to have anything to say on the subject. Readers are free to discuss whatever they'd like.)

Long odds those furry critters had against the evil Empire, which frames well this week's game against the Dallas Cowboys. Depending on who you ask, the Redskins are something like a 10-11 point dog ewok, which is the biggest margin of the gambling week. That's especially distressing in light of the fact that someone has to play Kansas City.

The importance of a sploding the death star cannot be overstated, and hinges largely on where one shoots. In this instance, Terrell Owens is a womp rat sized target:

[Last year at Texas Stadium] Shawn Springs was matched up in man coverage on Owens for most of that half, and though Owens beat him to the corner of the end zone for a four-yard TD, Owens didn't hurt the Skins otherwise in that half (four other receptions for 40 total yards. Washington had yet to give up the big play - QB Tony Romo's longest pass in the first two quarters was for 23 yards.

But the Skins went to much more of a zone look in the second half, the corners played deeper off the line, and they were burned repeatedly for it. Three of Owen's four catches in the second half were for long TDs, with linebacker London Fletcher, and safeties Pierson Prioleau and Reed Doughty among those who got caught making coverage mistakes. Sean Taylor was hurt for that game, with the season about to take a sickeningly horrible turn, and the secondary was in disarray in the second half, with communication between the safeties and corners problematic to say the least.

Yea so that sucked, etc. and raises questions why we make adjustments to the strategies that work. That might be Jacksonville's problem now, but I digress. I would happily sacrifice our old strategy of lining up #1 and #2 CB on their side regardless of who lines up opposite them (like Carlos Rogers yo) in favor of just painting Shawn Springs on T.O. every minute of the game. I'd send him over to the Cowboys sideline, if possible. They should carpool.

Crikeys I'm too honest to ever succeed at blogging. Over two years ago I made a ridiculous case that Santana Moss was a better receiver than Terrell Owens. I was wrong. My heart was in the right place, the actual results were not. But, for the first time since 2005, I'd wager, Santana Moss is owning Terrell Owens statistically by traditional and better metrics. On a long enough timeline, many even ridiculous claims have a good shot at validating eventually, so here's to hoping for a 2008 that looks like 2005, for Moss at least.

And for us, since that was both the last time I didn't attend the Cowboys-Redskins game at Texas Stadium and also the last time we won. My fault.

Why didn't the league schedule the final game at Texas Stadium betwixt the Redskins and Cowboys? You spend 50 years developing this intensely bitter rivalry only to squander perhaps the once every 50 year opportunity to actively encourage this bitter hatred, and you give it to the Ravens? On NFL Network? I'm about half as pissed off by that as any self-respecting Dallas Cowboys fan should be. As crazy as this sounds, instead of giving Texas Stadium a proper funeral at the hands of the Washington Redskins, a team the Cowboys have history with and have played more than any other team in the league, you give it to the Baltimore Ravens who the Cowboys are 0-2 against or, put differently, the team they've played fewer times than anyone else in the league? Cool beans, NFL. Looking over the list of their opponents, there quite literally isn't a single team the Cowboys could have played in the final game of Texas Stadium history that would be less interesting. The Texans are the only other team to have played the Cowboys as little as the Ravens, and at least that represents state pride fight night.

Anyways, I'll ask Dave of Blogging the Boys about it later this week. In the meantime, scope out their concerns for this weekend:

Jason Campbell is a young QB with a mountain of potential. He played really well against us last year, throwing for almost 350 yards and two scores in Dallas. It took some T.O. heroics for us to pull that game out.

No one's saying Campbell is near Romo. But he can hurt us. We need to get pressure on him and keep pressure off Romo. The Deadskins are hurting with injuries. Jason Taylor is sitting this game out.

I'll take it.

Suffice to say this goes double true for us, given that we're the damned underdogs in this fight and pressure without blitz is the great equalizer in the NFL. If Tony Romo can pass comfortably with all the time in the world, it won't matter what T.O.'s stat line looks like because whatever omissions exist in his TD column will be filled by production in Jason Witten's. Speaking to yesterday: No one is going to beat the Cowboys for us, and if we want to do so, on the road, it will take more than crossed fingers. Chris Wilson save us and nom nom nom Tony Romo.

(NO FEAR.)

via virtualhug.files.wordpress.com

I received an email last week from giving me some Redskins odds courtesy of Bodog, and thought I'd share. You know, for the kids. These are as old as the 27th of August and I have no idea to what degree they've changed:

Team Odds

Odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl XLIII

Washington Redskins                13/2 40/1

 

Odds to win the 2008 NFC Championship       

Washington Redskins                18/1

 

Odds to win the NFC East Division     

Washington Redskins                40/1 13/2

 

Win Totals

Washington Redskins Regular Season Wins

Over   7.5                      -115

Under 7.5                      -115

 

Washington Redskins Regular Season Home Wins

Over   4                         -130

Under 4                         Even

 

Washington Redskins Regular Season Away Wins

Over   3.5                      -110

Under 3.5                      -120

 

Player Performance Odds

Jason Campbell Passing Yards

Over/Under                    3300

 

Jason Campbell Passing Touchdowns

Over/Under                    18.5

 

Clinton Portis Rushing Yards

Over/Under                    1250

 

Clinton Portis Total Touchdowns

Over/Under                    10

 

Clinton Portis Receiving Yards

Over/Under                    350

 

Ladell Betts Rushing and Receiving Yards

Over/Under                    550

 

Santana Moss Receiving Yards

Over/Under                    950

 

Santana Moss Touchdowns

Over/Under                    5

 

Antwaan Randle El Receiving Yards

Over/Under                    650

 

Who will have more receiving yards?

Devin Thomas                 -300

Malcolm Kelly                +225

 

Chris Cooley Receiving Yards

Over/Under                    750

 

Chris Cooley Touchdowns

Over/Under                    6.5

 

Jason Taylor Sacks

Over/Under                    9.5

 

Andre Carter Sacks

Over/Under                    9.5

So there's obviously something screwed up with the first three odds, as it is somewhat implausible that we're more likely to win the Super Bowl than we are our conference and/or division.

Here is me on the rest, though reader(s) are constantly reminded that I am a horrible gambler:

• 8 wins tells me we take the over on 7.5
• I'd take the over on home wins. I think we've got Arizona and St. Louis beat. I don't necessarily like our chances against both Pittsburgh and Cleveland but think the two games combined are good for one victory. So I'm up to at least 3 home wins before I consider division, and I don't think we get swept at home 0-4.
• Presuming 5 home wins (sounds about right) I'd take the under on away wins with 3, given my 8-8 prognostication.
• Over on Jason Campbell and 3300 yards. Sans injury he would've done that last year, and I think he's a better quarterback in 2008.
• I'm actually going to take under on 18.5 touchdowns as 18 sounds about right.
• Portis is going over 1250 rushing yards. His 3.9 YPC was the lowest its been since 2004 and I see that improving without a substantial change in the amount of carries he gets.
• Walking away on the touchdowns; Portis will have 10 rushing TDs.
• As I still view Portis' strength in the passing game to be his blocking, not receiving, I'll take the under on receiving yards. 389 in 2007 was a career best and around 150 more than he'd ever had in Washington in a single season.
• Betts... I'll take the under. Even with a slightly increased role in 2008 he's still just around that much.
• Under on Moss, he's been a long way from 950 receiving yards for the past two years and I have to think with the introduction of Kelly and Thomas into this offense (even if it only happens closer to the end of the season) will steal from him some receptions.
• Over on touchdowns, 3 receiving was a huge anomaly.
• Over on ARE; even with the broken hand I think he's good for ~ 700 yards.
• No comment on either Kelly or Thomas as I've left that up to readers, and I think that's a fluid development that I'd just as soon not try and predict with any certainty.
• Cooley is over. In his current role as Redskins starting stud TE, more often than not he's been good for 750+ yards. I think the addition of Fred Davis impacts his numbers positively, actually.
• Over on touchdowns as well, see above.
• No comment on Taylor sacks, as I'm not about to predict a double digit season until he's had at least one as a 'Skin.
• Andre Carter will have 10 sacks, bet on it.

Having said "bet on it" know that I do not put my money where my mouth is the above, because I haven't any. Money that is.

This season is a go for the Hogs Haven Pick'em League. You guys can join via this link. Prizes are yet defined though will likely include bragging rights demonstrated through a front page post and possibly some financial reward (understanding that my ability to pay non-trivial amounts of money stymied largely by life choices and current employment status). Here's the official blurb written on our behalf:

Announcing the Hogs Haven NFL Pick'em Game

We are excited to announce a new feature here at Hogs Haven!  In conjunction with FunOfficePools, we will be running a NFL football pick'em game.  Let's find out who is really the best prognosticator of the pigskin.  Each week we'll be predicting the winners of every NFL football game.  We're picking straight up, but you get bonus points for correctly picking underdogs.  You always get 1 point if you correctly pick the favorite to win.  If the spread is less than 3, than whichever team you pick to win is worth 1 point.  If the spread is between 3 and 7, you can earn 2 points for correctly picking the underdog.  And if you correctly pick a 7 point or greater underdog, you get 3 points!

To participate, just join our pool . It's completely free to play, and FunOfficePools.com is spam-free as well. The pool is open now to join, and first picks are due by Sept 4th - so sign up now. The pool will run the whole regular season. Let's get as many of you signed up as we can, and find out who really is the best at picking winners in football. If you've already signed up, click here to go to the FunOfficePools main page and log in.

This is a self-important post but anytime I get my name splattered somewhere near actually employed sports writers, it's something of an accomplishment for me. A couple weeks ago ESPN The Magazine contacted me about blurbing on various NFL related propositions. I disagreed with virtually every prop, though in defense against claims of depressing cynicism leveled at me, they were propositions on which we were asked to agree or disagree. I'm a gambler, not an especially good one, and approached the questions as a probability analysis. You hand me a team, any team, and say "This team will win the Super Bowl" and my answer will almost invariably be: I'll take the field. Dynasties aside, the NFL, by its nature, is pretty difficult to predict and on any given year 31 teams have a better chance at beating 1 team for the Super Bowl. NFL propositions that assert ultra specific predictions are almost always wrong.

The trip here is that ESPN The Magazine published the responses of a number of people in a segment they called:

FACT CHECK: THE 2008-2009 NFL SEASON

The predictions below are bound to come true, right? Not so fast.

You can go find out what these propositions are at the site. The great news is that my two answers published happened to find their way immediately under the suffocating opinioning of Jay Mariotti of Around the Horn fame. See for yourself:

THE GIANTS WILL WIN MORE THAN 10 GAMES

"In a rough division, no. The Giants aren't even the best team in Giants Stadium this year." - JAY MARIOTTI, most recently of THE CHICAGO SUN TIMES

"Disagree. I see them as a 7-9 win football team in the regular season. Even if we included the postseason, I'd still be betting on the higher end of expectation and the increased difficulty of a postseason win. If I had to settle on a number I'd say they win 8 regular season games." - WILL ALLENSWORTH, HOGS HAVEN

Tony Reali, I'm available. And by available I mean unemployed.

Hat tipped kind of towards Extreme Skins, from the old news department it somehow escaped my finely tuned degenerative gambling radar that the Vegas lines came out on the 32 NFL team's over/under record. I don't remember many of us picking much fewer wins than 7 on the season, though I recall a few of you saying we had 8-10 in the tank. If you still feel that way, I encourage you to call your bookie. Here are the opening lines for all the teams:

The above linked website (that looks like a potential daily visit for me) has its own worthwhile analysis. Reader(s) should note that the NFC East has the 2nd highest predicted wins average.

Does this worry me? No, and I say that giving Vegas more credit than most. I think they are pretty spot on, or as spot on as any human can be when discussing things of such variance as the amount of wins an NFL team will have on any given year. I actually really love the 7.5 given the circumstances (new coaching staff) since what it means is that Vegas is essentially saying Your Washington Redskins are a fluke fumble, booted kick, interception, whatever away from being an eight win team, and that could very well mean playoffs. If we opened at 5.5 or 6, I'd have been worried.

I can deal with 7.5, and actually thought we were looking at a potential 7 win season. Regardless, I'd never bet on the Redskins unless it is to their credit. If I do end up gambling on this, I'm taking the over.

Some of the lines have since changed, but the Redskins weren't one of them. The author of Vegas Watch once more provides analysis that actually pushes the Redskins up to 7.55 when factoring in "the juice." Rather than butcher it, I'll let him explain:

Last week, when I posted Sportsbook's win totals for the upcoming NFL seasons, a few people (including myself) wondered how we should factor in the juice. For example, New England's total was 12, but the over was -130, and the under was EV, so we'd expect them to go over more often than they went under. With the help of RMMB statistics guru Adam, I figured out how to account for this.

After factoring that in the NFC East improves as well. We remain the 2nd strongest winningest division, per Vegas at least.

I'm adding a poll, enjoy.