I think it's about time to dish out are apologies to Sherman Lewis. The volunteer bingo caller is 6-9 in the red zone in the 3 games he's called. Sherm Smith certainly gets the assist with his effective play-calling on the ground. It's still hard to say exactly what went wrong those first 6 weeks, but it's obvious that the Joe Gibbs' style of running the ball is working. Did you know the Skins ran the ball FORTY times against the Broncos (with only 27 passing attempts)? Does that sound like a West Coast offense to you? Whatever it is, the Redskins offense is a lot less predictable and it's paying off.

The Cowboys on the other hand are a mystery. How does one of the best offenses in the NFL have statistically one of the lower red zone percentages? What's ironic is that week 2 when the Boys hosted the Giants, the Cowboys went a perfect 4-4 in the red zone, the Giants went 0-5, and the Giants won 33-31! (Eli had several TD passes in the 22-30 yard range).

Cowboys' Red Zone chart and analysis after the jump...

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Hopefully we'll be seeing a lot of this on Sunday (via blogs.tampabay.com)

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David Halprin, who is the lead blogger for the Cowboys' SB Nation website, Blogging the Boys, and I had a brief gmail chat talking about the big game. 

We talked about what their 2 major injuries mean (Colombo and Hamlin), why they refuse to run the ball, and if the DAL/WAS rivalry is still big in DAL (it's not). I tried throwing in some jabs to rile him up, but he didn't bite:

Kevin: What are your thoughts this Sunday? You have a lot of big injuries. Lets start with Doug Free replacing RT Marc Columbo...is he going to be able to handle [Andre Carter]? He's never started a game before

David: That's the question we all want answered. We've had Free for a few years now but never had the need to start him. Now we do. Free actually played well against the Packers and wasn't one of the problems our offense had in Green Bay. He's got great athleticism and did well in pass protection, we'll just have to see how he measures up this week. 

Kevin: Did Witten have to stay in more to help pass block? That would help the Skins out a lot.

David: Not at all, Free was left on his own for most of the game in pass protection and only had a few bad plays in that area. They would probably use a different TE (Bennett or Phillips) or one of the backs if they give him help.

Kevin: What about Hamlin's replacement? I know he's one of the verbal leaders on that D.

David: That's a tough one, Alan Ball will replace him, he was originally a cornerback but he worked at safety most of training camp this season. He's not the biggest guy and not having Hamlin QB'ing the secondary will hurt some. Our safety play has improved a lot this season, but without Hamlin it's a little worrying.

Kevin: What's to worry about? Santana Moss never does any damage in Big D! 

David: ha

Kevin: Flozell and Kosier going to be OK or gimpy? Haynesworth was still in a boot yesterday but expected to play.

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Well, it's Cowboys week and if there's ever a time to stay medium, this is the week. Vegas opened the line with Cowboys as 13 point favorites, which America bold-heartedly disagrees with as the line has moved down to -11. In my weekly routine of combing over the opponent's offensive stats, the Cowboys are damn impressive. They average a 2^nd best rushing yards per carry (5.1), but only rank 24^th in the league in rushing attempts. Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett has been catching a LOT of heat this week in Big D for abandoning the run, so I expect the Skins D to face a lot of rushes early.

Their passing game is equally as scary with a league leading 11 passing plays that have gone for 40+ yards, while Romo has only given up a measly 6 INTs so far. November is Romo's month, 15-2 for his career, but alas....one of those losses was against the burgundy & gold.

Whichever  team runs the ball well is going to win, and looking at the rushing statistics, it's clear Albert Hanyesworth is without doubt the key to this game.  He was wearing a protective boot for his sprained ankle yesterday, but is expected to play. Special thanks to HH member PommyLee for putting the following graphs together.

This chart visualizes the power runs, which is the % success  rate rushing the ball on 3^rd or 4^th down with under 2 yards to get the 1^st down. Dallas has a 100% success rate running right in short yardage situations while Stephon Heyer and the Redskins have a 0% success rate running the same way:

Even though the Cowboys have a lot of success running right in short yardage situations, their success is running the ball left and up the middle. This next chart shows the number of rushes for each team left, right, and up the middle. Just under half of the Cowgirls' big play rushes are to the left. Phillip Daniels has his work cut out for him as this chart shows:

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via nbcsportsmedia1.msnbc.com

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In the previous Redskins Coach watch posts, we discovered that Mike Holmgren would not be a good fit in D.C., and Russ Grimm is worth at least a hard look. 

Dan Snyder has quite the conundrum now doesn't he? Zorn is building some momentum, and at the same time two premier coaches, Shanahan and Cowher, have publicly rejected their desire to be the ringleader of this circus. We all know Snyder is the ultimate salesman using his wallet to do the talking. As we learned with Joe Gibbs return, there's nothing Snyder can't do in regards to acquiring personnel. 

What's disconcerning is that Shanahan and Vinny Cerrato are still really close. Vinny was the Director of College Scouting in San Francisco during Shanahan's three-year stint (1992 to 1994) as the 49ers' offensive coordinator. They still keep in touch with Shanahan recommending RB Anthony Alridge.  So, if Shanahan does come aboard, he more likely than not would be OK with Vinny retaining his title and the two working together. EESH!!!

I spoke in length with former Denver Bronco, Karl Mecklenburg, about Shanahan:

Hogs Haven: What are your thoughts on Mike Shanahan as the next coach in D.C.? I know things ended badly in Denver with three straight years of failing to make the playoffs.

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More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Hunter Smith and Shaun Suisham have been two of the brightest spots on this team this season. They led the way again against the Broncos.

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Listen...at 3-6, I am not digging around for the keys to the bandwagon. In fact, as much as I want to talk about our strong finishes down the stretch in recent years, the sting of last season's 2-6 finish is still too painful. So I am going to do the best thing I can think of--enjoy the hell out of a home victory and lose myself a little in the euphoria.

There is certainly something to the fact that the Broncos are in a big-time rut right now. They brought in a raw, tentative Chris Simms in the second half and that was helpful to our defense ( to say the least). And for whatever reason, they decided not to throw it to Brandon Marshall on every play (huge mistake). For these reasons and others, I am going to refrain from overblowing the value of the win in NFL terms.

But for Washington fans and players alike, the value of this win is priceless. We have crammed a whole season's worth of drama, intrigue, and shenanigans into 9 weeks. The mounting losses this year have shifted attention to areas and topics away from the field. For better or worse, the win brings the focus of this city right back between the whistles. Despite any of those things I mentioned above with regard to this game, the Redskins actually played well enough to win the game. The game was not handed to them. The numbers don't lie--we dominated our opponent this week. Worthy of a second glance: two penalties, and zero turnovers.

Team Stat Comparison
1st Downs	14	22
Passing 1st downs	8	13
Rushing 1st downs	6	9
1st downs from Penalties	0	0
3rd down efficiency	5-12	8-16
4th down efficiency	0-2	1-2
Total Plays	56	70
Total Yards	305	388
Passing	185	214
Comp-Att	14-31	18-27
Yards per pass	6.0	7.9
Rushing	120	174
Rushing Attempts	22	40
Yards per rush	5.5	4.4
Red Zone (Made-Att)	0-1	2-4
Penalties	4-45	2-19
Turnovers	2	0
Fumbles lost	1	0
Interceptions thrown	1	0
Defensive / Special Teams TDs	0	0
Possession	24:17	35:43

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Strike up the Bandwagon! The Redskins offense is 6-9 in their last 3 red zone trips, which I certainly did not see coming given the porous start against all those cellar-dwelling, winless teams. The key thing is the Redskins need to stay Medium. The secret is definitely out on their trick plays, all of which have come at high stake moments. With the momentum from the win, the Redskins need to get their offense going early and consistently. to avoid situations where trick plays are needed to bail their offense out. Live by the sword, die by the sword. I'm sure McDaniels will be catching a lot of heat for botching that trick play even after the Skins showed their cards:

"They were setting up something -- we knew it," defensive lineman Vonnie Holliday said. "They came back, and I think they may have even yelled out on their sideline, 'Let's just punt it. Let's just punt it.' And I guess we just bought into it, because we didn't lock in on the play and what was going on. It seems like it took forever to unfold. You've got to know coming into a game like this, with a team like this, to expect it."    

The Skins' red zone defense has been quite solid last year, although it is a bit misleading since they've given up 3 deep balls over the last 3 games. 

I cannot imagine the heat Zorn and Fred Davis would be dealing with right now if that punt trick failed. Thank the Lord it worked out because I'm exhausted from covering poor play calls and missed opportunities.

This post is sponsored by Comcast's NFL RedZone Channel, which allows you to see all the action from inside the 20 for every NFL game.

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

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The obvious connection between the Redskins and Broncos is the Champ for Portis trade, but as one AP writer noted, Josh McDaniels is in the same past predicament as Coach Zorn last year, rookie coach at 6-2:

Which takes us to Josh McDaniels, this year's new kid on the block who could do no wrong. He has the Denver Broncos at 6-2, but the two losses have come in the last two games. Has the league started to figure him out? Are the Broncos' flaws greater than they appeared at 6-0? Will he meet the same fate as Zorn?    

It's hard to say, but I didn't like the Broncos before the season and I don't like them now. Kyle Orton to me is a QB who has peaked, and that is not a good thing. I had a phone call with Karl Mecklenberg yesterday (that post coming early next week), and he said that he thought Josh tried to instill too much game plan last week, which led to some confusion. Hmm. Too much game plan? Must be nice to have that luxury. From what I recall last year, Zorn instilled too LITTLE game plan as to keep it simple for Campbell and the offense. Opposing teams figured that out real quick, which led to the disastrous tanking of 2008. 

Some notes coming into this game:

 QB JASON CAMPBELL, who passed for a career-high 3,245 yards last year, has 1,677 yards and is on pace for his second consecutive 3,000-yard season.  Campbell would join Pro Football Hall of Famer SONNY JURGENSEN (1966-67), JOE THEISMANN (1983-84) and MARK RYPIEN (1991-92) as the only quarterbacks in team history with back-to-back 3,000 yard seasons

RB CLINTON PORTIS has rushed for 494 yards and aims for his fifth 1,000-yard season as a Redskin.  Portis is tied with Pro Football  Hall of Famer JOHN RIGGINS for the most 1,000-yard rushing seasons in club history with four. It's going to be a tough mark for CP to make this year.

DE ANDRE CARTER (6.5) and rookie LB BRIAN ORAKPO (5.5) are on target to become the first set of Redskins to each post at least 10 sacks in a season since....CAN YOU NAME THE LAST SKINS DUO TO ACCOMPLISH THIS FEAT?

Kyle Orton expected to take a lot of shots this Sunday at Fedex. Image via cdn.faniq.com

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The bucking Broncos are losers of their last two straight games, at home, and now have to fly cross-country on a short week to play the battered Redskins. Granted, the Mile High Club's losses were against two of the best teams in the league (BAL and PIT); however, former Broncos LB/D lineman Karl Mecklenberg details their major flaw:

During the bye, teams evaluate other teams to see what weaknesses can be exposed. Baltimore had the same bye week as Denver and used their time to notice Denver's defensive tendencies. They saw that the Broncos were rotating guys into their defensive scheme very quickly. That's why Joe Flacco ran the no huddle offense, even though it's uncharacteristic of the Ravens. The Steelers saw the Ravens were successful with this, so Ben Roethlisberger went to the no huddle as well. They also found some weaknesses in the Broncos offensive line. The season is so long that it's all about making adjustments as you go along. The teams that can do that successfully make it far into the playoffs.

After two weeks, it's obvious Josh McDaniels will be making adjustments to fix this hole. The funny thing is, he may not have to given the sorry state of the OLine, that will now see Chad Rinehart starting at RG over Will Montgomery. Zorn addressed his distaste for the sacks on the 3-foot drops. All that aside, the Redskins played a great second half against Atlanta. The oline created holes and Betts found them. Who's to say they can't accomplish this again?

To get back on track this week against the Redskins, Mecklenburg offers advice for the Broncos:

"They've got to protect Orton. He's gun shy. He got so beat up in Chicago that when he starts to feel some pressure, that throws his game out of whack." 

A second way to get back on track according to Mecklenburg is to "Run the ball more effectively. Peyton Hillis needs to get involved more and a shift in the blocking scheme could be effective, so we're not so one dimensional."

This is where Blache needs to bring the house almost every snap. We've see Orton in Chicago and now in Denver, he does not handle pressure well at all.

Some Josh McDaniels quotes from MHR...

On why the Broncos have had difficulty running the ball the past two weeks:

"We've played against two good defenses, and that's not an excuse that we are going to use. We have got to do better than what we have done, whether it be execution, whether it be mistakes (or) whether it be just somebody made a nice play on defense. We are playing against physical teams, and that's what we play against every week. We've got to do better at the point of attack. We've got to do better with the ball in our hands. We've got to do better in terms of scheming something if we can do that to help ourselves, but we haven't lost faith in our ability to run the football or play good offense here. We've just got to go back to work and do better."

Seems simple enough.  Take the run away, pressure Orton by all means, and play physical on both sides of the ball.