One year ago today Sean Taylor was shot during a robbery in his home in Florida. He died the next day, which means his family will be holding their first Thanksgiving without Taylor on the first anniversary of his death.

There will be tributes all around the web about this, including this one from the NY Times. 

Taylor's name will be added to the Redskins' "Ring of Fame" at Fedex on Sunday before the game against the GIants. Per the Times article:

Knowing this would be an emotional week — the Giants game would have been important under any circumstances — the Redskins’ first-year coach, Jim Zorn, brought up the sunject of Sean Taylor's death before reporters started asking about it.

“I just wanted to make sure that these guys knew that he was the kind of player that these guys wanted to practice like and play like,” Zorn said. “And that’s part of the memory that we need to keep alive here on this football team, just the kind of player he was.”

It's still kind of jarring to think that he isn't with us. A tremendous loss for the team, for his family, for football fans everywhere. 

In other news, the Redskins released Shaun Alexander yesterday, presumably because of the improved health of Clinton Portis and Ladell Betts.

UPDATE: Hat tip to HH regular dr WNC, who posted the Alexander release below with the news that we may be re-signing DT Ryan Boschetti.

per La Confora's column after practice today:

Clinton Portis is questionable at this point and his chances of facing Dallas on Sunday are "50-50," Coach Jim Zorn said after practice today. Portis has a knee sprain that has worsened since the team last played Nov. 3.

Zorn remains optimistic that Portis will play, but conceded that "it would be a major issue for all of us," if he cannot. Zorn said that second-string back Ladell Betts may be back from his knee injury for Sunday's game, but that he is not "expecting" that result.

"50-50" is perhaps better than the "doubtful" of my headline; yet I say "doubtful" for two reasons. One is, coaches tend to put a more positive shine on situations than they actually are because it's better for morale. The other is that the knee has actually worsened over the past week. If it's trending the wrong way, it has to turn around and trend the right way in the next 6 days. Ugh.

With Betts also likely inactive, we are potentially looking at Cartwright and Alexander doing all the RB work, which I imagine would mean a gameplan involving more of Cooley and lots of slants to Moss, who is expected to play, In the good news department, both Springs and Taylor are also expected back.  

Welcome to midseason or thereabouts, which coincides nicely with our bye week. We get to face the Cowboys at FedEx field but not for 10 days. Meantime, thanks to Big Blue Shoe at Stampede Blue for organizing and collecting votes for the now-annual SB Nation NFL Midseason Studs and Duds of 2008, where a gaggle of us bloggers vote on best and worst of this maturing season. Clinton Portis you done good, son. Enjoy:

Clinton Portis is playing like an MVP right now.

The Studs

NFL Mid-Season MVP: Clinton Portis, Redskins

Comment from David the Falconer at The Falcoholic:

The homer in me wants to say Michael Turner, but he's done the majority of his damage against the league's weakest defenses. Portis has put the Redskins on his back and carried them 100 yards or more down the field most games, and for that he deserves my vote.

Best Player on Offense: Clinton Portis, Redskins

Comment from Skins Patrol at Hogs Haven:

He also has 150 yards receiving and has had his role increase with the injury to Ladell Betts Not everyone knows this, but Portis is the best pass protecting RB blocker in the league and is a big reason why Jason Campbell is playing well this season.

Best Players on Defense: Joey Porter, Dolphins

Comment from BigBlueShoe at Stampede Blue:

I thought this guy was DEAD. How the hell does he have 11.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles? I mean Jeezus, it is only Week Nine and he has 11.5 friggin' sacks! The hell are they feeding them down there in Miami?

Best Rookie: Chris Johnson, Titans

Comment from cgolden at Revenge of the Birds:

No explanation needed. Just watch this kid play and it's obvious why he's truly special. Were we really questioning his status as a first round pick six months ago?

Best Coach: Jim Zorn, Redskins

Comment from WCG at Windy City Gridiron:

I hate doing this, but in that division the Redskins should have easily been the worst team.

Jaguars coach Jack Del Rio has seen better days.

The Duds

Mid-Season Worst Player: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders

Comment from Dave the Falconer at The Falcoholic:

Consider that this guy was the first overall pick in the draft. Then consider that he can't throw a pass without collapsing into a heap.

Mid-Season Worst Rookie: Vernon Gholston, Jets

Comment from cgolden at Revenge of the Birds:

He's learning a new position so this probably isn't fair but seven tackles in eight games for a top six pick is simply unacceptable. You'd think he could at least be a situational pass rusher.

Mid-Season Worst Coach: Jack Del Rio, Jaguars

Comment from Chris at Big Cat Country:

Can I vote for Del Rio and the Jaguars for every possible spot?

See what I did there? "Not everyone knows this, but..." then I state what many would consider a subjective evaluation as if it were an objective fact. But, point of parliamentary procedure, as a matter of fact, it turns out to be the case that, Clinton Portis is the best pass protecting RB in the league. He deserves all the praise he gets.

The timing was wrong on the vote (shortly after our disaster against the Steelers) and I was worried Coach Zorn would get too penalized for that, but we got him called as the man of the half-year. What he has done with this team is simply phenomenal, and I'd be a liar if I said I knew from the start we would turn out so well under his coaching. I was very skeptical about the overall move and could not be happier to have been so wrong in doubt.

Readers are strongly encouraged to post their own votes and/or justifications and let me, us, know what we got wrong or who we unfairly left out.

Hat tip AOL Fanhouse, I guess I didn't read as closely as I should have the Official Site's announcement that Shaun Alexander is in the house:

Alexander could see snaps in place of Ladell Betts, who suffered a knee injury last week. Rock Cartwright is also on the roster, but he contributes primarily on special teams.

“Shaun is the kind of guy who is smart enough to understand the situation," Zorn said. "Clinton understands the situation. We said it could be temporary or it could run the full season. We are not going to put some sort of limitation on where we are at in four weeks, two weeks, however long it takes Ladell to get back.”

Sportz Assassin says:

It seems as if the "situation" is in the realm of temporary. Unless Alexander shows some of his old form and becomes a productive part of the offense, he will take his veteran minimum salary and go home when Betts is healthy.

Curly R says:

Here is another thought, courtesy of Jason La Canfora. With all the tailbacks hurt or unproductive lately, Jospeh Addai, Felix Jones, Brian Westbrook and still no signy signy, and the Bengals, Saints and Lions all taking a pass after trying Shaun out, what are the other 31 teams in the league seeing that the Redskins are missing?

Anthony Brown at Hog Heaven:

There is abundant evidence that Alexander is done as a NFL running back, even as the second back on a team. Things have to be really bad if he sees much playing time.

Yikes. First off, Ladell Betts produced well enough in 2006 to earn himself a contract extension. I never viewed this as a move to replace Betts at all, and suggestions from Coach, who has every reason in the world to remain tight lipped on this, that the move could be temporary, really screams at me that this is temporary. Between the lines I read: but for an injury to Betts, Alexander wouldn't be here, therefore when he returns... You get the picture.

I join my fellow bloggers in skepticism of Alexander, as he's now years removed from looking anything like a reliable starting running back. Point of parliamentary procedure, he might be years removed from looking like a serviceable backup RB. As far as running the ball, though, I imagine he's not being asked to do very much. If Betts was running the ball around 6 times a game, I imagine the team will apply substantial pressure on Portis to carry a larger load with Betts gone. So we're talking something like <6 carries a game for Alexander. However serviceable Alexander doesn't look, we're not asking much of him, at least in the running game.

What worries me far more is what's to be done with Shaun Alexander on passing downs? I have questions about his hands out of the backfield and his ability to pick up the blitz. First, from an interview with Doug Farrar:

I would liken [the West Coast offense Zorn learned] to the Elway-Davis Broncos of the late 1990s, very balanced, with a little more passing to the backs thrown in (he likes to do it more than he has because Alexander was a better runner than he was a receiver when he was elite).

Not really a big criticism of his receiving skills, just a weighing of his talents. Still, let's look at some of Alexander's receiving numbers compliments Football Outsiders:

2007: 56% catch rate (ie, he caught 56% of the passes thrown at him) and just about the worst (5th to last) receiving RB with over 25 passes. There's maybe three players who caught fewer than 60% of their passes, obviously because RBs typically are thrown short, at the line of scrimmage passes. Portis, by comparison, caught 81%. Betts 66%.

2006: Although his success rate (DVOA) was still remarkably bad, he caught 81% of his passes. Sample size was substantially smaller, though.

2005: Huge year for Alexander but, again, not a good receiver. Just about at the bottom of the receiving RB rankings with a dismal 54% catch percentage. No RB with over 25 passes caught a lower %.

2004: Rating is better, which is to say he's not among the worst, merely among the mediocre, and he caught 61% of his passes. About the 5th or 6th worse among that statistical range (over 25 passes) in catch %.

You get the picture.

I can forgive that. What I can't forgive is a failure to block that lands Campbell on his rear and, thus, the football in the opposing team's hands potentially. I've heard rumblings that he can't block. Mind the sources, I have to since I don't watch Seahawks games, but here is a representative sampling of comments from a pair of sites.

hawkdawg:

I'm afraid we do know that the pass first offense won't work with Shaun, because 1) he can't or won't reliably block, and 2) he can't reliably catch, with or without the cast.

redeye81:

Alexander is the highest paid cheerleader in the league. We are a better team with him out. He is too one dimensional. He can't catch or block as well as MoMo or Weaver.

Or...

Oscar:

There isn't nearly enough Alexander bashing going on around here...
The bottom line is not what Alexander was, but what he is,...a washed up RB makeing way more than he is worth. Greeeeeedy, won't restructure for the good of the team, won't, or can't, run hard, can't catch, can't block.

Again, mind the sources, but they would probably know better than me, at least.

But everyone loves a redemption story, so forget I said anything. Should we wake up next week and Alexander has had a huge game (in reserve on his 4-5 carries, somehow) and doesn't drop an easy pass or miss a crucial blitz, we'll all be on that bandwagon. Until then... Temporary indeed.

Was news to me after reading this Fanpost via Romans12, confirmed at Redskins Insider:

Shaun Alexander, the former NFL rushing champ and MVP, is heading to Washington for a workout on Tuesday, according to sources with knowledge of the situation.

The reason for this is, of course, the injury to Ladell Betts. Fortunately it doesn't appear to be that cereal, with the Jasons reporting "sources with knowledge of the situation" claim this knee injury is of the two-week downtime variety. Without the foggiest idea on what Shaun Alexander would cost the team under contract, I'm unwilling to say signing him to help the team out in Betts' absence is all that good or bad of an idea. I do agree with reader joshp:

when youre bringing in someone and you need him to contribute right away, already knowing the system is a big deal.

(Although I hope he's wrong about Betts being on his way to IR.)

Hindsight being 20/20 and all that, maybe we should've just found a way to keep Marcus Mason on the team? Naw?

There is extensive discussion on the internets (such that you needn't take my word for it) over the proper amount to utilize running backs so as to maximize their efficiency, health, longevity, and the like. The Rule of 370 is one such theory and can be read about it more detail here. Like most things, a more nuanced discussion would be better than merely posting the now almost mythical number of 370, but the theory is something like: Running backs who carry the ball 370 times a year generally decline in production the following year.

We can haggle and argue over whether the rule is true or the number is right or the extent to which other factors should be included (like receptions) or other appropriate alterations to the slowly emerging conventional wisdom. But enough of this is intuitive where I'd rather we not have that extended talk, which could take pages. Briefly: There is hardly anything controversial about suggesting that the running back who runs more often will suffer in production and health. Nobody can run forever. And being tackled is the result of the vast majority of runs, and tackles cause both short-term (injuries) and long-term (wear-and-tear) damage to the fragile human bodies we are all confined to. If 370 is just a number, it is at least a figure that communicates the undeniable truth that the better you manage a running back, the longer you'll have him.

Homer McFanboy, in a great post on the statistical development of Jason Campbell, Santana Moss, and Clinton Portis, touches on the running back use concept cited above only tangentially. I've added emphasis:

Portis is on pace to finish the 2008 season with 344 carries for 1,476 yards and 12 touchdowns. As a refresher, Portis finished 2007 with 325 carries for 1,262 and 11 touchdowns. Last season Portis was picking up 3.9 yards per carry, while this season he’s averaging 4.3 yards per rush. While some folks quietly grumble that Portis is coming off the field too often during games, the numbers show he’s still being very productive. Any way you look at it, the Redskins are in good hands with Portis.

I imagine by "some folks" one could just as easily substitute Brian Mitchell, and by "quietly grumble" you could sub in "shout regularly to anyone and everyone who will listen." But I also imagine that many Redskins fans do feel the same way, that our highly paid starting RB is there to run the football, and he can't do that from the sideline. I'm sure that position deserves a better advocate than yours truly, but I'd sum up it as:

1. You pay the player a lot of money to play, therefore said player should play.

2. You want your best players on the field.

And reader(s) can add in any number of similar justifications, of which there are legion. However, I disagree with it, and actually feel more comfortable with the general proposition that Clinton Portis run less.

Portis is highly paid. Although he is something like the fifth highest paid player per year on the team, his contract is the largest, at 53M, largely because he has huge escalating salaries come 2010 through 2013. Let that sink in: Clinton Portis is under contract through 2013.

In so far as the first argument above is a financial appeal, I say the only reasonable financial strategy is the one that maximizes return over the course of the entire contract. While we want to get the maximum production out of Portis now, if that necessitates much less production later in his career, for potentially much greater cost as his salary escalates, are we really making the sane financial choice? I doubt anyone in Jacksonville is lamenting the fact they didn't use Fred Taylor more in 2002 (one of like two years he was healthy), especially while he was accumulating a career high 5.4 yards per carry on 223 rushes just last year. And he ain't done yet, which means the Jags could get a huge amount of value out of a 31 year old running back. Four years from now I'd love to be talking about that great 100 yard rushing game Clinton Portis had. But if we rush him 400 times a year the odds of that happening are slim but approaching none.

Consider: Portis approached the scary 370 number in 2004 (383 touches counting receptions) and again in 2005 (382 touches counting receptions). The following season he was injured for much of the year and, as a result, suffered a substantial decrease in production. He had 372 touches last year, an only slight decrease that was actually lower than many of us imagined given how well Betts played. Right now Portis is on pace for 368 touches, and I'm fine with that. I'd be fine if we lowered it, actually, for reasons I state below.

To the second argument, I'd add that while true, the Redskins are unique in that we have an excellent backup running back who represents only a potential marginal decrease in production. Not a lot of teams have the luxury of two good RBs, but we do; Ladell Betts rules. Behind the same offensive line, in the same system, the two have remarkably comparable statistics: Since 2004 Portis is averaging 4.04 YPC. Betts, under the same time frame, is rushing for 4.22 yards per carry. While each runner has his own unique style and strengths, I think most agree Portis is better. But if he is indeed better, it ain't by nearly as much as most Redskins fans probably think.

The bottom line is, and maybe I'm stupid, the current policy of Portis policing himself and pulling himself when he feels he needs a breather is just fine by me. While I acknowledge the necessity of putting your best guy on the field, that theory applies equally towards the future, and thus maximizing the amount of production Portis has in 2009 is comparably important to maximizing his production now. We have a quality backup who, when placed in the game, produces comparable yards per carry. We will get more out of both of them if we can prolong their careers by mitigating the amount of damage we do the players by overuse. As much as I grew to hate Running Back By Committee systems as a Fantasy owner, it is very much the norm in the league and would serve the team's long term interests better, in my opinion, than putting more emphasis on Portis touching the ball 400 times a year. I'd be cool at 350.

Because I'd be cool regardless. But you guys already knew that (how cool I am, I mean).

I much prefer getting these out immediately following a game's end as the results are fresh in my mind. Too bad. Anyways, here are my brief thoughts from the game yesterday, enjoy or don't. As always, I use only my eyes to evaluate a game and have no special monopoly on interesting commentary on the results. Reader(s) are encouraged to post their own thoughts. Lots of great commentary over at Blogging The Boys, Grizz covers the Xs and Os much better than me so you might stop by over there.

• Cliches were the name of the game. All those things talking heads love to discuss that allegedly good teams do so well... we did so well. Starting with: Stop the run. Their explanation for why they abandoned the run so early are baffling but entertaining:

"It wasn't hard to run the ball against them," guard Leonard Davis said. "We had a game plan based on the looks they were giving us, and that dictated we stick with the passing game."

Mr. Davis is entitled to his own opinion but not his own facts. You can say "it wasn't hard to run the ball against" the Redskins if and only if you... ran the ball against the Redskins. What that doesn't look like is 11 carries for 44 yards. Marion Barber had 8 touches for 26 yards -- 2. 3 something yards per carry -- and Felix Jones had zero carries. Barber had 15 of those yards on one carry, which should tell you how good the other 7 were. The last drive of the game the Cowboys ran the ball to Barber more than once was their first of the 3rd quarter. Result was a touchdown. I have no explanation for why they so willingly gave up on the run, but it wasn't working even before they did, whatever Davis has to say about it.

• Cliches continue: Run the ball well. Final damage was 161 ground yards for 4.4 yards per carry, highlighted by a monster game from Clinton Portis for 121 yards on 21 carries (5.76 YPC). This is the kind of drive that would give die hard old school coaches orgasms:

When this drive begins, the Redskins are up by one touchdown and there's a whole lot of game left. When it ends, seven minutes later, the Redskins are up by two possessions and that's all she wrote.

• Give your secondary a round of applause. If you had told me, prior to the game, that the Redskins would have zero sacks and still win, I'd have laughed. Shawn Springs had what we might colloquially refer to as a "statement game" that statement being: I am a bad ass shutdown corner and I piss excellence routinely. Terrell Owens was silenced by Springs in the first quarter, who did exactly as I'd asked by painting himself all over T.O. The final damage from Owens was 71 yards and a touchdown (12 of which came against prevent defense at the end of the game), not a bad day by most measures, unless you consider that he was targeted 17 or 18 times on the day. He did not have a 20 yard reception. There are no easy solutions to a player as good as Terrell Owens unless you have an incredible player to line up against him, and we do. Shawn Springs is incredible. Anyone who doubts how important he is to this defense has just to recall the horrible shit storm that was 2006 and realize he was the missing link. It wasn't the presence of Adam Archuleta (which we fixed) but rather the absence of Springs for much of the year that did us in. He is the most talented player on the defense. (Fred Smoot you played great, too.)
  
• Rest of the guys played great too. Carlos Rogers was good and bad but not so much of the latter to make me wince. Chris Horton had the pick and continues to find the ball, making him cliche numero tres: "playmaker". Marcus Washington got beat by miles on the Jason Witten touchdown but besides that the linebackers played ok. Witten had a big game but the reality is you can't stop all the people on the Cowboys offense. You shut down Owens (relatively speaking) and Marion Barber and Felix Jones -- not necessarily by anything we did, mind you -- and you've got a good chance to beat them. We beat them.
• So a crazy thing happened. Doghouse Durant Brooks is insecure about his job security, shows up in someone else's house against probably the best punter in the NFL, and outplays Mat McBriar. Final damage was: Brooks 4 punts for 42.8 yards average with two touchbacks, long of 60. McBriar: 6 punts, 39 yards average, only one touchback, 59 long. Welcome to the team, rook.
• What a toolbox this guy Skin Patrol is going to spend all this recap talking about the punter and kicker? You bet I am. You beat the Cowboys by 2 points on the road and it all comes down to: If Suisham misses one of those four kicks we lose. You can have this phenomenally played game otherwise that hinges on whether Suisham is going to go 4/4. His kickoffs were good too.
• ALL HAIL SPECIAL TEAMS I WILL NEVER SHUT UP ABOUT IT. Kick and punt coverage units were both flawless. Pacman Jones returned three punts for an average of 4 yards. Felix Jones averaged 13 yards per return on kickoffs. Underewoks need to find ways to win and winning on special teams is how you go about doing that.
• Jason Campbell is the quarterback of the future. He will no doubt stumble at some point in the future and throw an interception. He is not without flaws, he is simply playing that way through 1/4th of the season. Having said that, I'm a believer, I've seen enough, Jason Campbell has what it takes to lead this team to sustained success for the foreseeable future. And he's playing well because he cliche alert protects the football. This time last year he would've fumbled the ball six times and lost it seven (check my math on that). We all speculated that Jim Zorn would be great for Campbell, indeed that was the only aspect of Zorn that few of us wondered about, and it's been true. Joe Gibbs placed a huge emphasis on protecting the football but it has been his successor who has somehow convinced this team not to fumble or give away the ball. He's completing 67% of his passes. NFL, you're on notice.
• Also on notice regarding our head coach, who is as real a deal as anyone right now. No offense to the past, this wasn't a Monday Night Miracle. Jim Zorn went into the devil's house and beat them without theatrics or requisite belief in unlikelihoods. This wasn't a game dominated by the loser for all but one quarter. Coach Zorn found a way to get the most out of his players at a time when the rest of the world was expecting the least out of them, and for that he should get 10 strong Hail To The Redskins. I saw him doing hip hip hoorays or some other nonsense after the game. As lame as a hip hip hooray is, I don't care what he says so long as we win.
• And we did win how 'bout that.
• Santana Moss eleventy four million yards on 8 catches bla bla bla this thing can't go on forever. I'd go line item down our roster praising the team because so many people did so many of the little and big things right for us to win this game. This was huge on so many levels, I'm really speechless. I am without speech.

Someone save me here in the comments section, my fingers hurt.

Quick thoughts from the game, before I go to enjoy the rest of my Sunday.

• Just looking over the boxscore, the stats don't show any great disparity between two teams, except: Turnovers Cardinals 2 Redskins 0. That will do it as often as not if you aren't dramatically outplayed by the other team, and we were not dramatically outplayed by the other team.
• Where did we lose? They managed 5 yards per carry on the game. We had absolutely no answer against the run in the first half, though did a lot better in the second half, I felt (although I'd need to go back and look to see if there's any truth in that). The easiest way to take the running game out of the picture is to have a lead late in the game. We did that.
• Jason Campbell was strong, 23/31 for 193 yards and 2 touchdowns (to Moss and Todd Yoder). No big mistakes besides the lay down, but you try standing up when Casey Rabach puts his foot on your ankle. Campbell went out there and took what the defense gave him and could've had a much better game statistically, if not for...
• Thrilled that you're ok Stephon Heyer. Not so pleased with the unnecessary roughness penalty.
• Devin Thomas, welcome to the Redskins. Your stat line may be unimpressive (1 rush for 16 yards on a nice end around, 2 receptions for 7 yards, targeted a few times early as well) but it would've been so much nicer had you gotten that eleventy million yard reception negated by penalty. You need to discuss the matter with Stephon Heyer, rook.
• Carlos Rogers... with an interception? And not a shabby one; after a heads up play by Leigh Torrence in which he used his helmet to divert the ball's path, Rogers dives for the pick, then gets up, dusts himself off, and runs for 42 yards. That ultimately sets up the game winning score by Santana Moss on a 17 yard reception.
• Friend called, he has Santana Moss on his fantasy team. Guy is a producer.
• Penalties are stupid, both teams are stupid. 6-42 yards for Arizona, 7-67 on us. They did most of their damage on special teams, we did a lot of ours everywhich way. As much as I liked Devin Thomas making the big play (though called back), I hated his two offensive pass interference penalties. No doubt Big 10 fans of teams not called Michigan State will wonder whether he got away with much grabby grabby in College. (Settle down, I mean on the field.)
  
• Anyone else see Antwaan Randle El's stat line as an NFL quarterback passer? Uhhhh. We should run an ARE pass play every game.
• Ben won't like it but I want more Santana Moss fielding punts. Randle El only had an opportunity to return one but, ever consistent, only managed 6 yards, something like 15 if you counted the horizontal yards.
• I agree with Moose (WHAT?) that Durant Brooks didn't appear to screw up the hold on Suisham's missed FG. What was Zorn so pissed off about?
• 4.4 yards per carry is good, but better was Clinton Portis getting the yards when it mattered, closing out the game with a big first down run late in the 4th quarter. Betts likewise looked sharp (5.8 YPC but on just four carries).
• Chris Cooley Chris Cooley Chris Cooley Chris Cooley Chris Cooley.

This team scares me a lot in some areas but I don't want to dwell on the negative after a 7 point, should've been 14 point win. Offense looks miles ahead of where it was in week one and, in spite of some minor hiccups on defense, we're playing pretty solid on both sides of the ball, at least this week. HAIL TO THE REDSKINS.

Some bad news: Looks like the Giants will beat the Bengals in overtime.

Maybe TexSkins will treat you to some recap action too.

Once more into the breach, dear friends, we go with Arizona Cardinals blogger extraordinaire cgolden, on the remaining Cardinals @ Redskins key matchups. Post is also up over at Revenge of the Birds here.  And it looks much better, since he uses pictures and other shiny things to make the post look much, much better than it appears here. Enjoy:

Match-up #5: Redskins Defensive front 7 vs. Cardinals OL (rushing)

Hogs Haven: Advantage: Redskins - Cardinals are near the bottom of the league in both traditional and DVOA rushing statistics, so I don't view this as much of a problem. The Redskins run defense has been merely average, but that should be enough to keep this game from turning on the strength of the Cards running game. One thing to watch and hope for is a stubborn insistence by the Cardinals to run the ball even if they aren't getting very much production out of that. Every play that this team isn't passing to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin is a victory for the Redskins defense.

CG: Advantage: Redskins - The Cardinals rushing attack hasn't been very encouraging through two games and it'll be interesting to see what their game plan is heading into this game. Against the Niners, the plan was to grind out yards on the ground and eat up the clock, but against Dolphins they went to the air early and often. They didn't have a very good average (2.7 ypc) in either game, but Ken Whisenhunt is trying to establish a reliable ground game so I don't see them giving up on it anytime soon. I'd still expect them to run 30-35 times on Sunday but it'll probably end up being quantity over quality.

Match-up #6: Cardinals defensive front 7 vs. Redskins OL (rushing)

Hogs Haven: Advantage: Cardinals - Arizona and Washington are about equal in running defense vs. running offense production so far (Redskins have about as many YPC as the Arizona has given up). But that's not the whole story, as DVOA reveals the Cardinals as a top 10 rushing defense. Lest you say "Well who have they played," DVOA adjusts for opponents. Which tells me that, despite giving up 4.1 YPC, a lot of those 4+ yard rushes were on X and long where the opposing team needed more yards to meaningfully advance the ball. I'm of the opinion that whether the 'Skins run the ball will have less to do with the offensive line (same as it ever was) and more to do with Jason Campbell, as he's the one who has been inconsistent thus far this year. If he gives Arizona cause to fear the pass, Portis and Betts will have much fewer defensive players in the box to account for.

CG: Advantage: Cardinals - This could be one of the more critical match-ups of the game because the Redskins need to be able to run the ball to take pressure off of Jason Campbell. The Cardinals have been decent at stopping the run and they're getting better as Alan Branch (will play) and Gabe Watson (probably won't) get healthy. The Niners were able to move the ball on the ground because both players were out and third string nose tackle, Bryan Robinson had to play most of the game. The Dolphins saw a much tougher front wall last week when Alan Branch returned to the lineup and he's much closer to 100% this week. The Redskins may run the ball on Sunday but it'll be for around 3.0 yards per carry.

Match-up #7: Cardinals return team vs. Redskins return coverage

Hogs Haven: Advantage: Redskins - Some explanation is required since the Redskins punt unit has been horrid. Our kick unit has been pretty good, though, which matches up well against a Cardinals kickoff return unit that hasn't done much so far. Arizona's average kickoff has been way down and, incredibly, Shaun Suisham is currently a better kicker offer than Neil Rackers (that won't last the remainder of the season but, wow, how does Suisham have as many touch backs as Rackers?). I'm not worried about kickoffs. Punting is another matter. Durant Brooks has been horrid and I'm willing to blame him more than our actual coverage unit for the ills of our season so far. Having said that, I simply refuse to believe that the best punter in CFB somehow forgets how to play the game after reaching the NFL. Whatever ills Brooks right now is mental, and I have confidence that he'll get his game back. This is a true test, as Arizona has been very good returning punts with an 11.7 average, despite having a long of just 17. This is, right now, the most consistent punt return unit in the league. Brooks needs to kick the living hell out of the football.

CG: Advantage: Push - The Skins have been pretty decent at limiting opposing kick returners (18.7 avg) but they did allow a Reggie Bush to take a punt to the house last week. Steve Breaston is a really good punt returner (11.7) but a sub-par kick returner (16.5 avg) so the match-up should be pretty interesting. The Cardinals committed a couple of penalties on punt returns last week and they'll have to avoid a repeat performance in that area. Breaston does have the speed to expliot a poor punt or bad coverage though and the Cardinals could put in something special after seeing Bush's return last week.

Match-up #8: Redskins return team vs. Cardinals return coverage

Hogs Haven: Advantage: Redskins - Similar to above, this one requires 1/2 explanation, because we're great in one area and dismal in another. The good news is that our kickoff return is phenomenal, as Rock Cartwright is one of the most consistent and underrated return men in the league. Neil Rackers, as stated above, is really playing below his ability with just a 25% TB percentage, lower than even limp legged Shaun Suisham. The Redskins have a top 5 return unit (per DVOA) and Cartwright has as many 20+ returns as any player in the league. So long as Neil Rackers continues to forget who he is, we will be in great shape in the return game. The bad news is our punt return unit, which sucks because Antwaan Randle El simply isn't very good at returning punts. He's great at dancing. If dancing were a talent, if juking two tacklers but advancing the ball 0 to -3 yards in the process were a rewarded skill in the NFL, he'd be a star punt returner. The maybe good news is that murmurs have continued to reach print this week (they started in the off season) that the team may be ready to give Santana Moss a chance to return punts, which he did in College to great effect I believe. As he is the most dangerous player we have in space, replacing Antwaan Randle El for Santana Moss in the return game instantly takes us from an awful unit to a top 10 one. Fingers are crossed.

CG: Advantage: Cardinals - Rock Cartwright isn't your average kick returner but that doesn't stop him from being very effective (27.6 avg). On the other hand, Antwaan Randle El looks like he's really slowed down as a punt returner (less than a yard a return this year). The Cardinals have been pretty successful in limiting kickoff returners (18.7 avg) but those numbers are dragged down by three squib kickoffs that resulted in a total of six yards. The Cardinals have allowed at least one return of 25 yards each game so far. They'll have to pay special attention to Cartwright and they'll need Rackers to put nearly every kick in the endzone (top 5 in touchback percentage). If he's able to do that though, the Cardinals should be able to limit the Skins return game.

I hope Rock Cartwright performs; I've pumped him up so much for the past two years that he is in prime position to make me look like a giant horse's ass. I have faith in him.

I received an email last week from giving me some Redskins odds courtesy of Bodog, and thought I'd share. You know, for the kids. These are as old as the 27th of August and I have no idea to what degree they've changed:

Team Odds

Odds to win the 2009 Super Bowl XLIII

Washington Redskins                13/2 40/1

 

Odds to win the 2008 NFC Championship       

Washington Redskins                18/1

 

Odds to win the NFC East Division     

Washington Redskins                40/1 13/2

 

Win Totals

Washington Redskins Regular Season Wins

Over   7.5                      -115

Under 7.5                      -115

 

Washington Redskins Regular Season Home Wins

Over   4                         -130

Under 4                         Even

 

Washington Redskins Regular Season Away Wins

Over   3.5                      -110

Under 3.5                      -120

 

Player Performance Odds

Jason Campbell Passing Yards

Over/Under                    3300

 

Jason Campbell Passing Touchdowns

Over/Under                    18.5

 

Clinton Portis Rushing Yards

Over/Under                    1250

 

Clinton Portis Total Touchdowns

Over/Under                    10

 

Clinton Portis Receiving Yards

Over/Under                    350

 

Ladell Betts Rushing and Receiving Yards

Over/Under                    550

 

Santana Moss Receiving Yards

Over/Under                    950

 

Santana Moss Touchdowns

Over/Under                    5

 

Antwaan Randle El Receiving Yards

Over/Under                    650

 

Who will have more receiving yards?

Devin Thomas                 -300

Malcolm Kelly                +225

 

Chris Cooley Receiving Yards

Over/Under                    750

 

Chris Cooley Touchdowns

Over/Under                    6.5

 

Jason Taylor Sacks

Over/Under                    9.5

 

Andre Carter Sacks

Over/Under                    9.5

So there's obviously something screwed up with the first three odds, as it is somewhat implausible that we're more likely to win the Super Bowl than we are our conference and/or division.

Here is me on the rest, though reader(s) are constantly reminded that I am a horrible gambler:

• 8 wins tells me we take the over on 7.5
• I'd take the over on home wins. I think we've got Arizona and St. Louis beat. I don't necessarily like our chances against both Pittsburgh and Cleveland but think the two games combined are good for one victory. So I'm up to at least 3 home wins before I consider division, and I don't think we get swept at home 0-4.
• Presuming 5 home wins (sounds about right) I'd take the under on away wins with 3, given my 8-8 prognostication.
• Over on Jason Campbell and 3300 yards. Sans injury he would've done that last year, and I think he's a better quarterback in 2008.
• I'm actually going to take under on 18.5 touchdowns as 18 sounds about right.
• Portis is going over 1250 rushing yards. His 3.9 YPC was the lowest its been since 2004 and I see that improving without a substantial change in the amount of carries he gets.
• Walking away on the touchdowns; Portis will have 10 rushing TDs.
• As I still view Portis' strength in the passing game to be his blocking, not receiving, I'll take the under on receiving yards. 389 in 2007 was a career best and around 150 more than he'd ever had in Washington in a single season.
• Betts... I'll take the under. Even with a slightly increased role in 2008 he's still just around that much.
• Under on Moss, he's been a long way from 950 receiving yards for the past two years and I have to think with the introduction of Kelly and Thomas into this offense (even if it only happens closer to the end of the season) will steal from him some receptions.
• Over on touchdowns, 3 receiving was a huge anomaly.
• Over on ARE; even with the broken hand I think he's good for ~ 700 yards.
• No comment on either Kelly or Thomas as I've left that up to readers, and I think that's a fluid development that I'd just as soon not try and predict with any certainty.
• Cooley is over. In his current role as Redskins starting stud TE, more often than not he's been good for 750+ yards. I think the addition of Fred Davis impacts his numbers positively, actually.
• Over on touchdowns as well, see above.
• No comment on Taylor sacks, as I'm not about to predict a double digit season until he's had at least one as a 'Skin.
• Andre Carter will have 10 sacks, bet on it.

Having said "bet on it" know that I do not put my money where my mouth is the above, because I haven't any. Money that is.