I have heard a lot about this year's deep WR and CB class; however, I have yet to ascertain the optimal strategy for drafting in a "deep" class. As far as I can tell, a deep position in a draft implies two distinct strategies.
Strategy A: Given that there is great depth at said positions, one seeking to optimize the quality of the draft class should elect to allocate high draft picks to "shallow" positions of need. The logic being that depth in a specific position implies high quality even with lower picks, while shallow positions imply lower quality with lower picks. Thus, in Strategy A, a franchise would do best to focus on selecting from the relatively shallow talent pool early and the deep talent pool late.
*Advantage: The way I see it, Strategy A promotes greater spread in the probability of receiving return on investment at each individual draft position.
*Disadvantage: This strategy, however, requires passing up on what might be the highest probability of return on investment for the sake of the entire draft class.
-How this might apply to the redskins 2014 draft class:
34. Safety (Very Shallow)
66. ILB (Shallow)
98. OT (Normal)
130. OLB (Normal)
162. CB (Deep)
194. WR (Very Deep)
Strategy B: Given that there is great depth at said positions, one seeking to optimize the quality of the draft class should elect to allocate high draft picks to deep positions of need. The logic being that a high draft pick applied to a deep position promotes the highest probability of return on investment for the high draft picks. The franchise would then allocate lower picks to shallower positions and, thus, risk less on what already was a diminished probability on return.
*Advantage: In Strategy B, we are optimizing the quality of the first few picks while diminishing the probability of return on the remaining picks. This has the advantage of bringing in greater individual talent but with fewer draft picks.
*Disadvantage: This strategy implies a lower probability in receiving talent at every round of the draft.
-How this might apply to redskins 2014 draft class:
34. WR (Very Deep)
66. CB (Deep)
98. OLB (Normal)
162. FS (Shallow)
194. ILB (Shallow)
I am interested to hear how others approach this tactical dilemma. I hope this sparks a lively debate. HTTR!
*Note: the draft orders listed above are meant to be hypothetical. I am not suggesting this is how we draft, only portraying each drafting strategy in its most dramatic form.