FanPost

The Shanahan Shakedown

As the Redskins continue to pile up losses, fans and writers raise their voices asking "Should Mike Shanahan continue to coach the Washington Redskins beyond this season?" While the debate rolls on, one thing everyone should agree with is that any decision on Shanahan’s future should rely on a careful analysis of his track record based on widely available statistics. It should go beyond the glaring 24-36 record.

Starting from Less than Scratch

Mike Shanahan began his 5-year contract in January before the 2010 NFL season. His first project was finding out what he had inherited before going into his first Redskins’ draft. There was a common question among Redskins fans and media once he had been announced as the head coach; Did Mike Shanahan have what it would take to turn the Redskins’ ship around? What everyone soon realized was that the ship had to be raised from the ocean floor first, then dragged back to harbor where it would need to be completely rebuilt before any sea worthy voyage.

A Motley Crew

The symbolic Redskins’ "ship" was the 53-man roster from the 2009 NFL season, the last season under Jim Zorn and Vinny Cerrato. Of the 53 players on the 2009 Redskins’ roster, 11 of them (over 20%) would never put on another NFL jersey after the end of the 2009 season. Another 20 players (37.7%) would be out of the NFL before the kick off of the 2012 season, and only 16 of those 53 players would start the 2013 season on an NFL roster (8 of those 16 players still play for the Washington Redskins). Of the 8 that don’t, only 3 have been perennial starters for their other team(s), and the remaining 5 have each averaged less than 7 starts per season with their respective post-Redskins’ teams.

The draft that preceded the 2009 season saw a total of 7 players picked by the Zorn/Snyder/Cerrato troika. Of those 7 selected, only Brian Orakpo remains in the NFL, while the other 6 players combined to start only 3 NFL games after the completion of the 2009 season (all by Kevin Barnes under Shanahan).

Looking at those facts, it seems unlikely that Mike Shanahan took possession of a ship that only needed to redirect its course. It also seems unlikely that his evaluation of talent is flawed: of the 45 (of 53) players that he would eventually cut from the 2009 roster, only 20 would ever play again, and only 8 of those players would start 10 games or more in their remaining time in the NFL.

Coaching Quarterbacks

It is also worth taking a closer look at Shanahan’s performance prior to the Redskins. In his 14 seasons with the Broncos, he would coach 4 primary starting QBs. All 4 would have other coaches and systems attached to their resumes; John Elway, Brian Griese, Jake Plummer, and Jay Cutler.

Under Shanahan, (according to passer rating) Elway would have his best NFL season (93.0), and of his top 5 seasons, 4 would be under Shanahan. Under Shanahan, he would throw 2.06 touchdowns for every interception. Under any other coach, Elway would throw only 1.1.

Griese would have his best season under Shanahan (102.9), and 2 of his best 3. He would throw 1.4 TDs/INT, but under all other coaches, he would record almost an even number of TDs (48) and INTs (46).

Jake Plummer had his best 3 seasons partnered with Mike Shanahan (highest=91.2) and threw over 1.5 TDs for every INT. Under any other coach’s guidance, he would post only .7 TDs for every INT thrown.

Finally, Cutler would have his best 2 seasons under Shanahan (highest=88.5), not including an unfinished 2013 season. Under Mike’s coaching he would throw almost 1.5 TDs for every INT and only 1.3 after Mike had left.

RGIII

As the above analysis suggests, the final and most important reason to secure Shanahan for the future is the development of Robert Griffin III. Griffin is a young player that needs time to develop and Mike Shanahan has a track record of success with QBs. Both need time together to grow in this system. They will learn each other’s strengths and weakness and continually improve communication. Not allowing Shanahan to remain past the 2014 season could hinder that development by trashing a foundation so carefully built between the coach and quarterback. Question: What kind of message would it send to an already over confident guy such as Griffin by releasing a 2-time Super Bowl winning coach in favor of a QB who has been quoted as saying "I’m just really focusing on being the playmaker that I know I can be and not letting anybody else tell me how to play this game"? Answer: not a good one.

So maybe it’s time to send the opposite message. Maybe it’s time to send the message that Robert Griffin DOES need someone to tell him how to play this game, and maybe that it’s a coach who has gotten the best out of almost every other QB he has ever coached. Robert Griffin had a QB rating of 102.4 last season. While so many scrutinize Mike Shanahan for Griffin’s falling numbers, he should be congratulated for finding a way to get the QB who’s floundering through the 2013 season to achieve the numbers he did in 2012 with almost the exact same team around him.

And that Pesky Salary Cap

Finally let us not forget, in the months before Mike Shanahan’s 3rd season as the Washington Redskins head coach, the NFL announced the 36 million dollar cap penalty due to the Redskins’ attempt to remedy contracts written by the former regime. This restriction, an amount equal to 14% of what they would have had to spend has tied one hand behind his back. Next year his hands will be free, and he will have a full salary cap to complete his vision.

Mike Shanahan is a great NFL coach and his contract should be extended out beyond the 2014 season. Send a message to The Washington Redskins and Mike Shanahan that their success relies on each other. While Griffin and Morris were credited with most of the 2012 NFC East championship, Mike Shanahan played a larger part than anybody, including the players, may have realized. Nothing bonds men like adversity and this year has been full of it. It seems that this season may have been the bloody battle that bonds the surviving soldiers and generals together for decades after the war.