"Patience is a virtue"-Anonymous
These are tried and true words that as sports fans we tend to ignore. We overreact when a questionable move is made only to realize it was beneficial to the team(Ex: Kirk Cousins, Jordan Reed). We also laud good moves on paper only to realize that it would hurt us in the end. The point is, it is natural as well as unnatural for sport fans to jump to conclusions before the full effect of a transaction(trade/FA/draft) has been completed. What I would like to review is the sudden reaction that the St. Louis Rams won the RG3 trade due to our horrid season and the possibility of the Rams obtaining at least a top 10 pick next draft. A trade which we won't know of the full effect until either: a) All the picks have been made, b) the progress of Griffin & Bradford at contract time and c) the success of the team since the trade(But really, who has time for that?). I'm taking a snapshot at this point and making a few predictions to see is there really a winner.
The details of the trade are simple:
WSH-Swap for #2 pick(2012 draft)
STL-Swap for #6(2012 draft), gain WSH 2nd rd pick(2012), 1st rd(2013), 1st rd(2014)
Next step is finding out who was picked:
WSH-Robert Griffin III
STL*(From the picks we gave them):
-Michael Brockers (DT)
*There was a lot of wheeling and dealing going on, so if I am missing someone please let me know(Source:draftsite.com).
Now that's a lot and we haven't gotten to 2014 yet. So on paper, the Rams got a bundle while the Skins received one QB. Winner: St.Louis, right? Not really.
B) & C)
First, I'll address what is the statement that each time made by agree to this trade(my opinion, btw):
Skins-We have a solid team as it is and all we are lacking is the one QB to put us over the top. Our cap space should take care of any remaining issues.
Rams-We believe our QB is will grow and we will build a team around him so he will succeed.
Let's see what each team needs heading into the 2014 draft(Sources: drafttek, nfl.com:
WSH: OL(RT, OG, C), FS, ILB, CB, WR, DE
STL: WR, OL(OG), S, DT, QB
Now let's add some adversity:
WSH: Cap penalty(collusion), Griffin's recovery (ACL), late OL draft picks(underdeveloped)
STL: Bradford's torn ACL, lack of immediate offensive development.
And let's look at the progress of the QBs since 2012
65.6 % accuracy, 3200 pass yds, 20 TDs, 5 INTs, 815 ruhing yds, 7 rushing TDs, pass rtg: 102.4, QBR: 73.2
60.2% accuracy, 3201 pass yds, 16 TDs, 12 INTs, 489 rushing yds, 0 rushing TDs, pass rtg: 82.2, QBR: 40.1
2012(16 games): 59.5% accuracy, 3,702 pass yds, 21 TDs, 13 INTs, 124 rushing yds, 1 rushing TDs, pass rtg: 82.6 QBR: 50.3
2013(7 games): 60.7 % accuracy, 1,687 pass yds, 14 TDs, 4 INTs, 31 rushing yds, 0 rushing TD, pass rtg: 90.9, QBR: 48.0
And last but not least, the records of the two teams since 2012:
WSH: 13-17(best: 15-17, worst: 13-19)
STL: 13-16-1(best: 15-16-1, worst: 13-18-1)
From the data given and current circumstances of both team, there really isn't a winner. No matter how the analyst at ESPN or other sports networks try to spin it, neither of these teams have actually "improved" over the other. Both teams are starting their backup QBs while the starters are recovering from ACL. Griffin is going through a unique offseason of rehab and enduring sophomore slump behind a lackluster OL and D/ST (31 pts/g). We already know all the struggles he and the team are going through now. St. Louis wasn't able to get their offense fully on board until after Bradford was injured. He has one year left on his contract and he hasn't improved much since his rookie year. This could be blamed on the having a new OC every year but he hasn't shown any period where he actually got it. St. Louis can go with Bradford for another year but he will be recovering from ACL and is likely to put up worse numbers than his career norms(if we know what those norms are). Since the Bradford era, the Rams hasn't been at or above .500.
Mediocrity is the story (or curse) of both of these teams since the trade and no one can clearly claim the winner. St. Louis is continuing to build the team so they can be ready when Bradford. It will be ironic if in 2015, they felt they were a QB away from challenging the playoffs as well as the NFC West title. The Redskins already had immediate success but still needs to fill holes to keeps this franchise from sinking. They are hoping to recoup a few good picks from the RG3 trade (bidding starts: 2nd rd pick). Let's wait another year when Bradford contract is up and Griffin has spent at full offseason working in hopefully the same offense.
There really isn't a winner or loser in this trade. Just mediocrity everywhere you look.